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A high-resolution simulation of catastrophic rainfall over Uttarakhand, India

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Abstract

On 16 June 2013, intense and continuous rainfall together led to the collapse of moraine-dammed lake (Chorabari Lake) and devastated the entire land of Uttarakhand, Himalaya. This caused heavy floods in Uttarakhand (28°43′−31°27′ latitudes and 77°34′–81°02′ longitudes) along with unprecedented damage to life and property. Timely prediction and warning of such severe local weather systems over complex terrain are the first step towards disaster mitigation and bears huge societal impact. In this study, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model was configured at high spatial resolution (2 km) to simulate the Kedarnath heavy rainfall event over Uttarakhand region of India during 16–17 June 2013. Results showed that the WRF model was able to predict the Kedarnath heavy rainfall. Location and intensity of heavy rainfall were captured by the WRF model when verified with in situ measurements and satellite-retrieved rainfall products. Moreover, the explicit impact of topography in triggering this extreme weather event has been discussed using a diagnostic model which demonstrated that orographic component of rain rate is quite high over this region.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Mr. A. S. Kiran Kumar, Chairman, ISRO for constant encouragement and guidance. Authors are also thankful to National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for WRF model. The global analysed and forecast data provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are acknowledged with sincere thanks.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric Sciences Division, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Group, Earth, Ocean, Atmosphere, Planetary Sciences and Applications Area, Space Applications Centre (ISRO), Ahmedabad, 380015, India

    Prashant Kumar, Bipasha P. Shukla, C. M. Kishtawal & P. K. Pal

  2. Space and Atmospheric Sciences Division, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India

    Som Sharma

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  1. Prashant Kumar
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  2. Bipasha P. Shukla
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  3. Som Sharma
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  4. C. M. Kishtawal
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  5. P. K. Pal
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Correspondence to Prashant Kumar.

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Kumar, P., Shukla, B.P., Sharma, S. et al. A high-resolution simulation of catastrophic rainfall over Uttarakhand, India. Nat Hazards 80, 1119–1134 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2013-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2013-2

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