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Tropical cyclones in the Mozambique Channel: January–March 2012

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Mozambique Channel from January to March 2012 resulted in five landfalls that affected Madagascar and southeastern Africa. The rainfall, circulation, and temperature fields surrounding the TCs were studied for anomalous characteristics. Case studies were considered for two TCs, which brought flooding to southern Mozambique and adjacent areas: Dando 17 January and Irina 3 March. Weather forecasts underestimated rainfall from Dando and poorly resolved the looping track of Irina. An anomalous easterly circulation associated with Pacific La Niña and warm SST in the SW Indian Ocean are indicated as mechanisms supporting repeated tropical cyclogenesis in the Mozambique Channel. The downstream shedding of a vortex from Madagascar contributed to the variable nature of TC tracks and forecast errors in January–March 2012.

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Acknowledgments

Forecast model guidance and TC forecasts were provided by CFS, ECMWF, JTWC, and Meteo-France Reunion (P. Caroff). K. Rae, P. Tharaga, and E. Becker of the South African Weather Service assisted with model forecasts, observed rainfalls, and radar data processing, respectively.

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Correspondence to Mark R. Jury.

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Chikoore, H., Vermeulen, J.H. & Jury, M.R. Tropical cyclones in the Mozambique Channel: January–March 2012. Nat Hazards 77, 2081–2095 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1691-0

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Keywords

  • Tropical cyclones
  • Mozambique Channel
  • Coastal flooding