Natural Hazards

, Volume 74, Issue 3, pp 1707–1728 | Cite as

Investigation of the variability of strong ground motions from Vrancea earthquakes

  • Florin PavelEmail author
  • Radu Vacareanu
  • Constantin Ionescu
  • Mihail Iancovici
  • Mihai Sercaianu
Original Paper


A systematic investigation of the applicability of several ground motion prediction models for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source is conducted in this research. Two ground motion prediction models recommended by previous evaluations (Vacareanu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 11(6):1867–1884, 2013a; Pavel et al. in Earthq Struct 6(1):1–18, 2014), as well as two new state-of-the-art ground motion prediction equations (Vacareanu et al. in J Earthq Eng, 2013b; Earthq Struct 6(2):141–161, 2014) are tested using an increased strong ground motion database consisting of 150 recordings from Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes. The evaluation is performed by using several goodness-of-fit parameters from the literature. Moreover, the applicability of the single-station sigma method is also investigated by using the same strong ground motion database recorded in 30 seismic stations from southern and eastern Romania. The influence of the soil conditions on the numerical results obtained in this study is investigated and discussed using the results provided by the analysis of variance method. The impact of the single-station standard deviation on the levels of seismic hazard is also assessed in this study, and the results show, in the analyzed cases, significant reductions of the hazard levels.


Ground motion prediction equation Residuals Single-station sigma ANOVA Standard deviation Hazard curve 



Funding for this research was provided within BIGSEES Project by the Romanian Ministry of National Education (MEN) under the Grant Number 72/2012. This support is gratefully acknowledged. The constructive feedback from two anonymous reviewers is greatly appreciated. Their comments and suggestions assisted us in considerably improving the quality of the manuscript.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Florin Pavel
    • 1
    Email author
  • Radu Vacareanu
    • 1
  • Constantin Ionescu
    • 2
  • Mihail Iancovici
    • 1
  • Mihai Sercaianu
    • 1
  1. 1.Technical University of Civil Engineering BucharestBucharestRomania
  2. 2.National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP)Bucharest-MăgureleRomania

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