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An epidemiological approach to determining the risk of road damage due to landslides

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Abstract

Disruption of segments of roads can have a significant impact on the vulnerability of the entire network. Natural disasters are frequent causes of disruptions of this kind. This article focuses on determining the risk of road disruptions due to landslides. Our approach is based on methodology widely used in the field of epidemiology. We had available data on the location of the landslides, the road network and a list of the disrupted road segments. With the use of a 2 × 2 table, we determined the relationship between landslide data and road segment disruptions and derived the risk coefficient based on the number of landslides in the vicinity of the road and its length. The result is a disruption risk map with risk coefficients ranging from 0 to 47.94. In order to distinguish the most risky segments, we calculated a threshold of 12.40 with the use of a risk breakdown in a group of segments without damage. Nineteen percentage (402 km) of the road network in the Zlín region (Czech Republic), where the methodology was applied, is located beyond this threshold. The benefits of this approach stem from its speed and potential to define the most risky areas on which a detailed geomorphologic analysis can be focused.

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Acknowledgments

This paper was prepared with the help of a project undertaken by the Transport Research Centre (OP R&D for Innovation No. CZ.1.05/2.1.00/03.0064) and the project “Quantification of the risk to the transport infrastructure of the Czech Republic by natural hazards” (No. VG20102015057), supported by the Ministry of the Interior of the Czech Republic. Our thanks go to Radek Berecka and Karel Kočíb, RMD employees in the Zlín region branch, for processing data on the damaged road segments, and to Jiří Sedoník for his help with the figures. Two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged for their valuable comments.

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  1. Transport Research Centre, Líšeňská 33a, 636 00, Brno, Czech Republic

    Michal Bíl, Jan Kubeček & Richard Andrášik

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  1. Michal Bíl
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  2. Jan Kubeček
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  3. Richard Andrášik
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Correspondence to Michal Bíl.

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Bíl, M., Kubeček, J. & Andrášik, R. An epidemiological approach to determining the risk of road damage due to landslides. Nat Hazards 73, 1323–1335 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1141-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1141-4

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