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Implementation of an integrated vulnerability and risk assessment model

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Abstract

An integrated vulnerability and risk assessment model (IVR) is proposed. The proposed model is a composite index that assesses the relationships among four critical components, namely exposure, hazard, vulnerability and capacities and measures, and how these can be used to illustrate the integrated risk and vulnerability situation of an area. These factors are assessed using individual variables. Fifty-four variables, objectively decided upon, were used to measure the contribution of each component factor. The general characteristics of vulnerability, risk, exposure and capacities and measures are well known; however, the relative importance of each variable and their inter-relatedness, in measuring risk and vulnerabilities, as demonstrated by the IVR; and how these in turn affect the impacts of natural hazards, are still debatable. The IVR though provides a valid, reliable and sensitive tool, which can be used to further explore these relationships. Through robust testing and application, subjectivity in the selection of variables can be reduced. Moreover, through the establishment of a database for data collection and storage, objectivity (reliability) can be achieved as well as, availability of the requisite data inputs. The sensitivity of the model allows for the quick identification of strategic action, which will ultimately lead to hazard loss reduction. The values yielded for each component factor can help decision-makers in the allocation of scarce developmental funds as well as identify trends in levels of risk, vulnerability, exposures and capacities and measures as well as determine areas where mitigation strategies are needed most.

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Acknowledgments

This research was partially funded by a grant received from the Office of Graduate Studies and Research, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus. The authors would also like to thank the Japanese government for a Monbukagakusho (MEXT) scholarship received by the main author, which allowed for the completion of the research in Japan. Additionally, we would also like to acknowledge Dr David Miller who supervised the main author during the initial research project that led to this paper.

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  1. Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kumamoto University, 2-39-1 Kurokami Chuou-ku, Kumamoto, 860-8555, Japan

    Natainia S. Lummen & Fumihiko Yamada

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  1. Natainia S. Lummen
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  2. Fumihiko Yamada
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Correspondence to Natainia S. Lummen.

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Lummen, N.S., Yamada, F. Implementation of an integrated vulnerability and risk assessment model. Nat Hazards 73, 1085–1117 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1123-6

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