Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Does a Kuznets curve apply to flood fatality? A holistic study for China and Japan

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A Kuznets curve is the graphical representation of Simon Kuznets’ hypothesis that as a country develops, there is a natural cycle of economic inequality driven by market forces, which at first increase inequality and then decrease it after a certain average income is attained. The concept has been applied to environmental studies hypothesizing that the relationship between per capita income and the use of natural resources and/or the emission of wastes has an inverted-U shape. This paper presents a holistic study aimed at validating the applicability of the Kuznets curve to flood disaster. The focus is China and Japan. Both countries are prone to flooding and have experienced great economic growth. Data analysis detected the turning points of annual flood fatality in both countries, and the change in annual flood fatality with economic growth in both countries was found to match the Kuznets curve. However, the variation pattern of annual flood-caused economic loss was different between China and Japan. The difference may be partially attributed to the difference in residential characteristics between the two countries. Besides, it was found that climate change affected the flood-caused economic loss in Japan over recent decades. Furthermore, the variations in annual flood fatality and economic loss in the largest city of China were also analyzed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aboelata M, Bowles DS (2008) LIFESim: a tool for estimating and reducing life-loss resulting from dam and levee failures. In: Proceedings of the Association of State Dam Safety Officials “Dam Safety 2008” conference, Indian Wells, CA

  • Aboelata M, Bowles DS, McClelland DM (2004) A model for estimating dam failure life loss. ANCOLD Bull 127:43–62

    Google Scholar 

  • Bandurek GR (2008) Cumulative sum charts for problem solving. BioPharm Int 21(5):58–67

    Google Scholar 

  • Bennett MT (2008) China’s sloping land conversion program: institutional innovation or business as usual? Ecol Econ 65(4):699–711

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cabinet Office of Japan (2011) Disaster management in Japan. http://www.bousai.go.jp/1info/pdf/saigaipanf_e.pdf. Accessed 10 Feb 2013

  • China State News Office (1998) Extreme floods in 1998. Wuhu Publisher (in Chinese)

  • Commission of the European Communities (2006) Venezuela country strategy paper. http://eeas.europa.eu/venezuela/csp/02_06_en.pdf. Accessed 10 Feb 2013

  • Cropper M, Griffiths C (1994) The interaction of population growth and environmental quality. Am Econ Rev Pap Proc 84(2):250–254

    Google Scholar 

  • Peduzzi P, Dao, H, and Herold C (2002) Global Risk and Vulnerability Index Trends per Year (GRAVITY), Phase II: development, analysis and results. UNDP/BCPR

  • Erdman C, Emerson JW (2008) A fast bayesian change point analysis for the segmentation of microarray data. Bioinformatics 24(19):2143–2148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grossman G, Krueger A (1995) Economic growth and the environment. Q J Econ 110(2):353–377

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallegatte S (2008) An adaptive regional input–output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina. Risk Anal 28:779–799

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallegatte S, Ghil M (2008) Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics. Ecol Econ 68:582–592

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang G (2012) Time lag between economic development and flood fatality. J Sustain Dev 5(10):50–59

    Google Scholar 

  • IFRC (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies) (2001) World disaster report 2001. http://www.ifrc.org/PageFiles/89755/2001/21400_WDR2001.pdf. Accessed 30 July 2013

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change (2001) Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: McCarthy J, Caniziani O, Leary N, Dokken D, White K (eds) Chapter 9, pp 451–486. Cambridge University Press

  • Ishizaki H, Kawamura S, Huh C (1961) On the distribution of damaged houses by Isewan typhoon. Annuals of Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University 4, Kyoto, pp 95–104

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaxk R, Chen J, Wang XL, Lund R, QiQi L (2007) A review and comparison of change point detection techniques for climate data. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 6:900–915

    Google Scholar 

  • Jonkman SN, Vrijling JK, Vrouwenvelder ACWM (2008a) Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method. Nat Hazards 46:353–389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jonkman SN, Bočkarjova M, Kok M, Bernardini P (2008b) Integrated hydrodynamic and economic modeling of flood damage in the Netherlands. Ecol Econ 66(1):77–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahn ME (2005) The death toll from natural disasters: the role of income, geography, and institutions. Rev Econ Stat 87(2):271–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kellenberg DK, Mobarak AM (2008) Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters? J Urban Econ 63:788–802

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Killick R, Eckley IA, Jonathan P, Ewans K (2010) Detection of changes in the characteristics of oceanographic time-series using statistical change point analysis. Ocean Eng 37(13):1120–1126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuznets S (1955) Economic growth and income equality. Am Econ Rev 45(1):1–28

    Google Scholar 

  • Kwon DW, Ko K, Vannucci M, Reddy ALN, Kim S (2006) Wavelet methods for the detection of anomalies and their application to network traffic analysis. Qual Reliab Eng Int 22:953–969

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ninno CD, Dorosh PA, Smith LC, Roy DK (2001) The 1998 floods in Bangladesh: disaster impacts, household coping strategies, and response. Research report, International Food Policy Research Institute Washington, DC

  • Peduzzi P, Dao H, Herold C, Mouton F (2009) Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:1149–1159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pelling M, Özerdem A, Barakat S (2002) The macro-economic impact of disasters. Prog Dev Stud 2:283–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayhan I, Grote U (2007) Coping with floods: does rural–urban migration play any role for survival in rural Bangladesh? J Identity Migr Stud 1(2):82–98

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor W.A (2000) Change-point analysis: a powerful new tool for detecting changes. http://www.variation.com/cpa/tech/changepoint.html. Accessed 20 Feb 2013

  • UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) (2001) Disaster profiles of the least developed countries. In: Third United Nations conference on least developed countries

  • UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) (2004) Reducing disaster risk: a challenge for development. http://preventionweb.net/go/1096. Accessed 20 Feb 2013

  • WFP (World Food Programme) (2010) Pakistan flood impact assessment

  • Williamson JG (1985) Did British capitalism breed inequality?. Allen & Unwin, Boston, MA

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu Z, Bennett MT, Tao R, Xu J (2004) China’s sloping land conversion programme four years on: current situation, pending issues. Int For Rev 6(4):317–326

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Appreciation should go to anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments, which greatly improved the quality of this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Sophia University, 7-1 Kioicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 102-8554, Japan

    Guangwei Huang

Authors
  1. Guangwei Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guangwei Huang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Huang, G. Does a Kuznets curve apply to flood fatality? A holistic study for China and Japan. Nat Hazards 71, 2029–2042 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0994-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0994-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation