Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Severe weather affecting European transport systems: the identification, classification and frequencies of events

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Severe weather can have serious repercussions in the transport sector as a whole by increasing the number of accidents, injuries and other damage, as well as leading to highly increased travel times. This study, a component of the EU FP7 Project EWENT, delineates a Europe-wide climatology of adverse and extreme weather events that can be expected to affect the transport network. We first define and classify the relevant severe weather events by investigating the effects of hazardous conditions on different transportation modes and the infrastructure. Consideration is given to individual phenomena such as snowfall, heavy precipitation, heat waves, cold spells, wind gusts; a combined phenomenon, the blizzard, is also considered. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the E-OBS dataset (1971–2000) and the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset (1989–2010). Northern Europe and the Alpine region are the areas most impacted by winter extremes, such as snowfall, cold spells and winter storms, the frequency of heavy snowfall. The frequency of hot days is highest in Southern Europe. Severe winds and blizzards are the most common over the Atlantic and along its shores. Although heavy rainfall may affect the whole continent on an annual basis, extreme precipitation events are relative sparse, affecting particularly the Alps and the Atlantic coastline. A European regionalization covering similar impacts on the transport network is performed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agarwal M, Maze TH, Souleyrette R (2005) Impacts of weather on urban freeway traffic flow characteristics and facility capacity. In: Proceedings of the 2005 mid-continent transportation research symposium, Ames, Iowa, August 2005

  • Alexander LV et al (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 111:D05109. doi:10.1029/2005JD006290

    Google Scholar 

  • Andersson A (2010) Winter road conditions and traffic accidents in Sweden and UK: present and future climate scenarios. Dissertation A131, University of Gothenburg, Sweden, 113 p

  • Andreescu MP, Frost DB (1998) Weather and traffic accidents in Montreal, Canada. Clim Res 9:225–230

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anttila V (2001) Talvijalankulku, liukastumistapaturmat ja kelitiedottamisen kehittäminen (Pedestrians during wintertime—slippery conditions, slipping accidents and information service). VTT research notes 2110: 62 p. In Finnish

  • Brönnimann S, Martius O, von Waldow H, Welker C, Luterbacher J, Compo GP, Sardeshmukh PD, Usbeck T (2012) Extreme winds at northern mid-latitudes since 1871. Meteorol Zeitschrift 21(1):13–27

    Google Scholar 

  • Carpenter C (2005) Windstorm Erwin/Gudrun—January 2005. Specialty practice briefing. An update from the property specialty. Issue no. 2. 17 January 2005

  • Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Della-Marta PM, Haylock MR, Lutherbacher J, Wanner H (2007) Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880. J Geophys Res 112, D15103, 11 p. doi:10.1029/2007JD008510

  • Della-Marta PM, Mathis H, Frei C, Liniger MA, Kleinn J, Appenzeller C (2009) The return period of wind storms over Europe. Int J Climatol 29:437–459

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ECMWF (2007) IFS documentation CY31r1, part IV: physical processes, 155 p. Available at: http://www.ecmwf.int/research/ifsdocs/CY31r1/PHYSICS/IFSPart4.pdf

  • Edwards JB (1999) The temporal distribution of road accidents in adverse weather. Meteorol Appl 6:59–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Manta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein Tank AMG, Peterson T (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res 19:193–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gillies RR, Wang SY, Huang WR (2012) Observational and supportive modelling analyses of winter precipitation change in China over the last half century. Int J Climatol 32:747–758

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groisman PY, Knight RW, Easterling DR, Karl TR, Hegerl GC, Razuvaev VN (2005) Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J Clim 18:1326–1350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grumm R (2009) Western European snow of 1–2 February 2009. In Pennsylvania State University-National Weather Service Weather and Research Site. Available at: http://nws.met.psu.edu/severe/2009/03Feb2009.pdf. Accessed 8 May 2012

  • Haanpää S, Lehtonen S, Peltonen L, Talockaite E (2005) Impacts of winter storm Gudrun of 7th–9th January 2005 and measures taken in Baltic Sea Region. Report produced in the frame of project: “Developing Policies and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region” (ASTRA) which is part financed by the European Union within the BSR Interreg IIIB Neighbourhood Program

  • Haylock MR, Hofstra N, Klein Tank AMG, Klok EJ, Jones PD, New M (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res (Atmospheres) 113:D20119. doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hofstra N, Haylock M, New M, Jones PD (2009) Testing E-OBS European high-resolution gridded data series of daily precipitation and surface temperature. J Geophys Res 114:D21101. doi:10.1029/2009JD011799

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disaster to advance climate change adaption. Authors: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Dahe Q, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner GK, Allen SK, Tignor M and Midgley PM. ISBN 978-1-107-60780-4

  • Juga I (2012) The effect of snowfall and low temperature on road traffic accident rates in Southern Finland. In: Proceedings of SIRWEC 16th international road weather conference, Helsinki, Finland, 23–25 May 2012

  • Juga I, Vajda A (2012) The effect of weather on transportation: assessing the impact thresholds for adverse weather phenomena. In: Proceedings of SIRWEC 16th international road weather conference, Helsinki, Finland, 23–25 May 2012

  • Klein Tank AMG, Können GP (2003) Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946-99. J Clim 16:3665–3680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klok EJ, Klein Tank AMG (2009) Updated and extended European dataset of daily climate observations. Int J Climatol 29:1182–1191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leviäkangas P, Saarikivi P (eds) (2012) European extreme weather risk management—needs, opportunities, costs and recommendations. EWENT project D6, 81 p

  • Leviäkangas P, Tuominen A, Molarius R, Kojo H, Schabel J, Toivonen S, Keränen J, Ludvigsen J, Vajda A, Tuomenvirta H, Juga I, Nurmi P, Rauhala J, Rehm F, Gerz T, MuehlhausenT, Schweighofer J, Michaelides S, Papadakis M, Dotzek N, Groenemeijer P (2011) Extreme weather impacts on transport systems. VTT working papers 168: 119 p. Available at: http://ewent.vtt.fi/Deliverables/D1/W168.pdf

  • Mills B, Andrey J (2002) Climate change and transportation: potential interactions and impacts. In: Proceedings of the U.S. Department of Transportation Research Workshop: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation, Washington DC, Oct. 1–2, pp 77–88

  • Moberg A et al (2006) Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901–2000. J Geophys Res 111:D22106. doi:10.1029/2006JD007103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Molarius R, Leviäkangas P, Rönty J, Oiva K, Hietajärvi A-M, Nokkala M, Könönen V, Zulkarnain, Kreuz M, Mühlhausen T, Ludvigsen J, Saarikivi P, Vajda A,Tuomenvirta H, Athanasatos S, Papadakis M, Michaelides S, Siedl N, Schweighofer J, Riemann-Campe K, Groenemeijer P (2012) Weather hazards and vulnerabilities for the European transport system—a risk panorama. EWENT project D5.1. In: Molarius R, Leviäkangas P, Rönty J, Oiva K (eds) VTT technology. VTT, Espoo, Finland, 43 p. http://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/technology/2012/T43.pdf

  • Munich-Re (2012) Topics Geo Natural Catastrophes 2011: analyses, assessments, positions. Munich Re Publications, Munich, Germany 59 p

    Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (U.S.), Committee on Climate Change and U.S. Transportation (2008) Potential impacts of climate change on U.S. transportation. Transportation Research Board Special Report 290, Washington DC, 280 p

  • Norrman J, Eriksson M, Lindqvist S (2000) Relationships between road slipperiness, traffic accident risk and winter road maintenance activity. Clim Res 15:185–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Penttinen M, Nygård M, Harjula V, Eskelinen M (1999) Jalankulkijoiden liukastumiset, vaikeimmat kelit ja niiden ennustaminen sekä tiedottamiskokeilu pääkaupunkiseudulla (Pedestrian slipping accidents, detecting and forecasting of hazardous road conditions. Information campaign on the Helsinki region). VTT Research Notes 1998: 59 p. In Finnish

  • Peterson TC, McGuirk M, Houston TG, Horvitz AH, Wehner MF (2008) Climate variability and change with implications for Transportation. National Research Council, Washington, DC 90 p

    Google Scholar 

  • Pisano P, Goodwin L, Stern A (2002) Surface transportation safety and operations: the impacts of weather within the context of climate change. In: Proceedings of the U.S. Department of Transportation Research Workshop: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation, Washington, DC, Oct. 1–2, pp 165–184

  • Punkka A-J, Teittinen J, Johns RH (2006) Synoptic and Mesoscale Analysis of a High-Latitude Derecho–Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak in Finland on 5 July 2002. Wea Forecast 21:752–763

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rauhala J, Juga I (2010) Wind and snow storm impacts on society. In: Proceedings of SIRWEC 15th International Road Weather Conference, Quebec City, Canada, 5-7 February 2010

  • Rossetti M (2002) Potential impacts of climate change on railroads. In: The potential impacts of climate change on transportation. Federal Research Partnership Workshop. October 1–2, 2002. Summary and discussion papers. DOT. Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting, 209–224. http://climate.dot.gov/documents/workshop1002/workshop.pdf#page=84

  • Rowland BD, Davey JD, Freeman JE, Wishart DE (2007) Road transport sensitivities to weather and climate change in Australia. In: Proceedings 30th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Melbourne, Australia

  • Salli R, Lintusaari M, Tiikkaja H, Pöllänen M (2008) Wintertime road conditions and accident risks in passenger car traffic. Research report 68, Tampere University of Technology, Transport Systems: 70 p. In Finnish, English abstract

  • Simmons A, Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S (2006) ERA-interim: new ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsl 110:26–35

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith C, Lawson N (2011) Identifying extreme event climate thresholds for greater Manchester, UK: Examining the past to prepare for the future. Meteorol Appl. doi:10.1002/met.252

  • Stephenson DB (2008) Definition, diagnosis, and origin of extreme weather and climate events. In: Murnane R, Diaz H (eds) Climate extremes and society. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 11–23

  • Swiss-Re (2012) Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2011: historic losses surface from record earthquakes and floods. Sigma 2/2012, Zurich, Switzerland, 40 p

  • Tuomenvirta H, Leviäkangas P (2012) To meet the needs of mobility. Baltic Transp J 46(2):48–49

    Google Scholar 

  • Uppala SM et al (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart J Meteorol Soc 131:2961–3012. doi:10.1256/qj.04.176

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vajda A, Tuomenvirta H, Jokinen P, Luomaranta A, Makkonen L, Tikanmäki M, Groenemeijer P, Saarikivi P, Papadakis M, Tymvios F, Athanasatos S (2011) Probabilities of adverse weather affecting transport in Europe: climatology and scenarios up to the 2050s. FMI Reports 9:85 p

  • Walker SA, Mote TL (2005) Derecho hazards in the United States. Bull Am Meteor Soc 86:1577–1592

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The study contributes to the EWENT project funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union. We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://eca.knmi.nl); the ERA-Interim data used in this study have been provided by ECMWF. We thank Riitta Molarius and Kalle Oiva of VTT for the technical assistance provided in the completion of Fig. 7.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrea Vajda.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Vajda, A., Tuomenvirta, H., Juga, I. et al. Severe weather affecting European transport systems: the identification, classification and frequencies of events. Nat Hazards 72, 169–188 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0895-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0895-4

Keywords

Navigation