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Modeling the 2004 Sumatra tsunami at Seychelles Islands: site-effect analysis and comparison with observations

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Abstract

The M w = 9.1 mega-thrust Sumatra–Andaman earthquake that occurred on December 26, 2004, was followed by a devastating tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands of people and caused catastrophic effects on human settlements and environments along many coasts of the Indian Ocean, where even countries very far from the source were affected. One of these cases is represented by the Republic of Seychelles, where the tsunami reached the region about 7 h after the earthquake and produced relevant damages, despite the country was more than 4,500 km far from the seismic source. In the present work, we present and discuss a study of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami by means of numerical simulations with the attention focused on the effects observed at the Seychelles Archipelago, a region never previously investigated with this approach. The case is interesting since these islands lay on a very shallow oceanic platform with steep slopes so as the ocean depth changes from thousands to few tens of meters over short distances, with significant effects on the tsunami propagation features: the waves are strongly refracted by the oceanic platform and the tsunami signal is modified by the introduction of additional frequencies. The study is used also to validate the UBO-TSUFD numerical code on a real tsunami event in the far field, and the results are compared with the available observations, i.e., the sea level time series recorded at the Pointe La Rue station, Mahé Island, and run-up measurements and inundation lines surveyed few weeks after the tsunami at Praslin Island, where the tsunami hit during low tide. Synthetic results are found in good agreement with observations, even though some of the observations remain not fully solved. Moreover, simulations have been run in high-tide condition since the 2004 Sumatra tsunami hitting at high tide can be taken as the worst-case scenario for the Seychelles islands and used for tsunami hazard and risk assessments.

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Acknowledgments

The high-resolution bathymetry and topography in the Praslin Island area have been courteously provided by the GSC Geosciences Consultant (Bagneux, France), coordinator of the EU-funded project SCHEMA (Scenarios for Hazard-induced Emergencies Management). The present work started in the frame of the EU SCHEMA project (6th Framework Program) being the 2004 tsunami at the Seychelles used as benchmark during the initial phase of the project. SCHEMA aimed to build tsunami hazard, vulnerability, and damage maps for five test sites, located in the Mediterranean Sea, in the NE Atlantic and in the Black Sea, with the objective of providing an important set of tools for local administrative offices and stakeholders (Scheer et al. 2011; Tinti et al. 2011).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143, Rome, Italy

    Roberto Tonini

  2. Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Settore di Geofisica, Università di Bologna, Viale Berti Pichat 8, 40127, Bologna, Italy

    Alberto Armigliato, Gianluca Pagnoni & Stefano Tinti

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  1. Roberto Tonini
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  2. Alberto Armigliato
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  4. Stefano Tinti
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Correspondence to Roberto Tonini.

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Tonini, R., Armigliato, A., Pagnoni, G. et al. Modeling the 2004 Sumatra tsunami at Seychelles Islands: site-effect analysis and comparison with observations. Nat Hazards 70, 1507–1525 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0886-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0886-5

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