One is well advised, when traveling to a new territory, to take a good map and then to check the map with the actual territory during the journey (Wasserburg 2010).
Abstract
Rigorous and objective testing of seismic hazard assessments against the real seismic activity must become the necessary precondition for any responsible seismic risk estimation. Because seismic hazard maps seek to predict the shaking that would actually occur, the reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), and the alternative ground shaking maps based on the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), are cross-compared and tested against the real seismicity for the territory of Italy. The comparison between predicted intensities and those reported for past earthquakes shows that models generally provide rather conservative estimates, except for PGA with 10 % probability of being exceeded in 50 years, which underestimates the largest earthquakes. In terms of efficiency in predicting ground shaking, measured accounting for the rate of underestimated events and for the territorial extent of areas characterized by high seismic hazard, the NDSHA maps appear to outscore the PSHA ones.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Albarello D, D’Amico V (2008) Testing probabilistic seismic hazard estimates by comparison with observations: an example in Italy. Geophys J Int 175:1088–1094
Bormann P (ed) (2012) New manual of seismological observatory practice (NMSOP-2). IASPEI, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam. http://nmsop.gfz-potsdam.de; doi:10.2312/GFZ.NMSOP-2 urn:nbn:de:kobv:b103-NMSOP-2
Boschi E, Favalli P, Frugoni F, Scalera G, Smriglio G (1995) Mappa massima intensita` macrosismica risentita in Italia. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, Roma
Folladore G (2010) Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment and earthquake recurrence, Master Thesis, Università degli studi di Trieste, Facoltà di Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche e Naturali
Giardini D, Grünthal G, Shedlock KM, Zhang P (1999) The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map. Ann Geofis 42(6):1225–1228
Gruppo di Lavoro (2004) Catalogo parametrico dei terremoti italiani, versione 2004 (CPTI04). INGV, Bologna. http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI04/
Indirli M, Razafindrakoto H, Romanelli F, Puglisi C, Lanzoni L, Milani E, Munari M, Apablaza S (2011) Hazard Evaluation in Valparaiso: the MAR VASTO Project. Pure Appl Geophys 168(3–4):543–582
Jordan T, Chen Y, Gasparini P, Madariaga R, Main I, Marzocchi W, Papadopoulos G, Sobolev G, Yamaoka K, Zschau J (2011) ICEF report. Operational earthquake forecasting: state of knowledge and guidelines for utilization. Ann Geophys 54(4):315–391
Kossobokov V, Nekrasova A (2012) Global seismic hazard assessment program maps are erroneous. Seism Instrum 48(2):162–170
Magrin A, Peresan A, Kronrod T, Vaccari F, Panza GF (2013) Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment and earthquake recurrence, submitted for publication
Meletti C, Montaldo V (2007) Stime di pericolosità sismica per diverse probabilità di superamento in 50 anni: valori di ag. http://esse1.mi.ingv.it/d2.html, Deliverable D2
Mucciarelli M, Albarello D, D’Amico V (2008) Comparison of probabilistic seismic hazard estimates in Italy. Bull Seism Soc Am 98(6):2652–2664
Panza GF, Vaccari F, Cazzaro R (1997) Correlation between macroseismic intensities and seismic ground motion parameters. Ann Geophys 15:1371–1382
Panza GF, Romanelli F, Vaccari F (2001) Seismic wave propagation in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media: theory and applications to seismic zonation. Adv Geophys 43:1–95
Panza GF, La Mura C, Peresan A, Romanelli F, Vaccari F (2012) Seismic hazard scenarios as preventive tools for a disaster resilient society. In: Dmowska R (ed) Adv Geophys. Elsevier, London, pp 93–165
Peresan A, Panza GF (2002) UCI2001: The updated catalogue of Italy, Internal report IC/IR/2002/3. ICTP, Trieste, Italy
Peresan A, Panza GF (2012) Improving earthquake hazard assessment in Italy: an alternative to Texas sharpshooting. EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 93(51):538–539
Peresan A, Costa G, Vaccari F (1997) CCI1996: the current catalog of Italy, internal report IC/IR/97/9. International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste
Peresan A, Zuccolo E, Vaccari F, Gorshkov A, Panza GF (2011) Neo-deterministic seismic hazard and pattern recognition techniques: time-dependent scenarios for North-Eastern Italy. Pure Appl Geophys 168(3–4):583–607
Peresan A, Kossobokov V, Panza GF (2012) Operational earthquake forecast/prediction. Rend Fis Acc Lincei 23:131–138
Peresan A, Magrin A, Nekrasova A, Kossobokov VG, Panza GF (2013) Earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment: a comparative analysis over the Italian territory. In: Proceedings of the ERES 2013 Conference. WIT Transactions on The Built Environment, vol 132. pp 23–34. doi:10.2495/ERES130031
Stein S, Geller R, Liu M (2011) Bad assumptions or bad luck: why earthquake hazard maps need objective testing. Seis Res Lett 82:623–626
Stucchi M, Camassi R, Rovida A, Locati M, Ercolani E, Meletti C, Migliavacca P, Bernardini F, Azzaro R (2007) DBMI04, il database delle osservazioni macrosismiche dei terremoti italiani utilizzate per la compilazione del catalogo parametrico CPTI04. Quad Geofis 49: 38 (available at http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/DBMI04/)
Wasserburg GJ (2010) Comment on “AGU Statement: investigation of scientists and officials in L’Aquila, Italy, is unfounded”. Eos 91(42):384
Wyss M, Nekrasova A, Kossobokov V (2012) Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates. Nat Haz 62(3):927–935
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to Giuliano Panza for his active and critical contribution in this work. We acknowledge Dario Albarello and an anonymous reviewer for suggestions that significantly contributed clarifying the text of the manuscript. This paper was completed during the visit of A.K. Nekrasova at the Structure and Nonlinear Dynamics of the Earth (SAND) Group of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Miramare, Trieste, Italy.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Nekrasova, A., Kossobokov, V., Peresan, A. et al. The comparison of the NDSHA, PSHA seismic hazard maps and real seismicity for the Italian territory. Nat Hazards 70, 629–641 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0832-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0832-6