Skip to main content
Log in

Dynamic estimate of seismic danger based on multifractal properties of low-frequency seismic noise

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A new method of dynamic estimate of seismic danger is presented which is based on estimating multifractal properties of low-frequency seismic noise. The efficiency of the method is illustrated by the analysis of seismic noise from broadband seismic network F-net in Japan. The analysis of multifractal properties of low-frequency seismic noise from Japan seismic network F-net since the beginning of 1997 allowed a hypothesis about approaching Japan Islands to a future seismic catastrophe to be formulated at the middle of 2008. The base for such a hypothesis was statistically significant decreasing of multi-fractal singularity spectrum support width mean value. The peculiarities of correlation coefficient estimate within 1 year time window between median values of singularity spectra support width and generalized Hurst exponent allowed to make a decision that starting from July 2010, Japan come to the state of waiting strong earthquake. This prediction of Tohoku mega-earthquake, initially with estimate of lower magnitude as 8.3 only (at the middle of 2008) and further on with estimate of the time beginning of waiting earthquake (from the middle of 2010), was published in advance in a number of scientific articles and abstracts on international conferences. The analysis of seismic noise data after Tohoku mega-earthquake indicates increasing probability of the 2nd strong earthquake within the region where the north part of Philippine Sea plate is approaching island Honshu (Nankai Trough). This region is characterized by relatively low values of singularity spectrum support width which is an indicator of seismic danger. In one paper (Sobolev in Izv Phys Solid Earth 47:1034–1044, 2011), the low-frequency seismic noise at the same range of periods was investigated retrospectively using data from the stations of broadband network IRIS which are located around the epicenter of Tohoku mega-earthquake with a distance up to 1,200 km. It was shown that the variance of the noise and the number of high-amplitude asymmetric impulses were grown dramatically before the event for stations which are located within the radius up to 500 km from the epicenter.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or Ebook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Feder J (1988) Fractals. Plenum Press, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Hirata T, Satoh T, Ito K (1987) Fractal structure of spatial distribution of microfacturing in rock. Geophys J Roy Astron Soc 90(2):369–377

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huber PJ (1981) Robust statistics. Wiley, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Humeaua A, Chapeau-Blondeau F, Rousseau D, Rousseau P, Trzepizur W, Abraham P (2008) Multifractality, sample entropy, and wavelet analyses for age-related changes in the peripheral cardiovascular system: preliminary results. Med Phys 35(2):717–727 (American Association of Physicists in Medicine)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ivanov PCh, Amaral LAN, Goldberger AL, Havlin S, Rosenblum MB, Struzik Z, Stanley HE (1999) Multifractality in healthy heartbeat dynamics. Nature 399:461–465

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kantelhardt JW, Zschiegner SA, Konscienly-Bunde E, Havlin S, Bunde A, Stanley HE (2002) Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series. Physica A 316:87–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kobayashi N, Nishida K (1998) Continuous excitation of planetary free oscillations by atmospheric disturbances. Nature 395:357–360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lyubushin AA (2008) Multifractal Properties of Low-Frequency Microseismic Noise in Japan, 1997–2008. Book of abstracts of 7th General Assembly of the Asian Seismological Commission and Japan Seismological Society, Fall meeting, Tsukuba, 24–27 November 2008, p 92

  • Lyubushin AA (2009) Synchronization trends and rhythms of multifractal parameters of the field of low-frequency microseisms. Izv Phys Solid Earth 45(5):381–394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lyubushin AA (2010a) Synchronization of multifractal parameters of regional and global low-frequency microseisms—European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Vienna, 02–07 of May, 2010, Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol 12, EGU2010-696

  • Lyubushin AA (2010b) Synchronization phenomena of low-frequency microseisms. European Seismological Commission, 32nd General Assembly, September 06–10, 2010, Montpelier. Book of abstracts, session ES6, p 124

  • Lyubushin AA (2010c) The statistics of the time segments of low-frequency microseisms: trends and synchronization. Izv Phys Solid Earth 46(6):544–554

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lyubushin A (2010d) Multifractal parameters of low-frequency microseisms. In: de Rubeis V et al. (eds) Synchronization and triggering: from fracture to earthquake processes, geoplanet: earth and planetary sciences 1, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-12300-9_15, Springer, Berlin, p 388, Chapter 15, pp 253–272

  • Lyubushin AA (2011a) Cluster analysis of low-frequency microseismic noise. Izv Phys Solid Earth 47(6):488–495 (submitted in April of 2010)

    Google Scholar 

  • Lyubushin AA (2011b) Seismic catastrophe in Japan on March 11, 2011: long-term prediction on the basis of low-frequency microseisms. Izv Atmo Ocean Phys 46(8):904–921

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mandelbrot BB (1982) The fractal geometry of nature. Freeman and Co., New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Pavlov AN, Anishchenko VS (2007) Multifractal analysis of complex signals. Phys Uspekhi 50(8):819–834

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao CR (1965) Linear statistical inference and its applications. Wiley, NY

    Google Scholar 

  • Rhie J, Romanowicz B (2004) Excitation of Earth’s continuous free oscillations by atmosphere-ocean-seafloor coupling. Nature 431:552–554

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sobolev GA (2011) Low frequency seismic noise before a magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake on March 11, 2011. ISSN 1069_3513, Izv Phys Solid Earth 47(12):1034–1044

    Google Scholar 

  • Tanimoto T (2001) Continuous free oscillations: atmosphere-solid earth coupling. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 29:563–584

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tanimoto T (2005) The oceanic excitation hypothesis for the continuous oscillations of the Earth. Geophys J Int 160:276–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taqqu MS (1988) Self-similar processes encyclopedia of statistical sciences, vol 8. Wiley, New York, pp 352–357

    Google Scholar 

  • Turcotte DL (1997) Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Ziganshin AR and Pavlov AN (2005) Scaling properties of multimode dynamics in coupled chaotic oscillators. Proceeding of 2-nd International Conference “Physics and Control”(August 24–26, 2005, S. Petersburg). Saint Petersburg, pp 180–183

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project no. 12-05-00146).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. A. Lyubushin.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lyubushin, A.A. Dynamic estimate of seismic danger based on multifractal properties of low-frequency seismic noise. Nat Hazards 70, 471–483 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0823-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0823-7

Keywords

Navigation