Abstract
In recent years, greater attention has been given to advancing the theory and practice of assessing risk from multiple hazards. Most approaches calculate multi-hazard risk by aggregating risk scores for individual hazards and ignore the combined exceedance probability of multiple hazards. We address this problem by developing a simple and practicable multi-hazard risk assessment method that uses information diffusion theory to overcome the difficulty posed by a lack of historical or spatial data on natural hazard-induced loss. China’s Yangtze River Delta region is used as a demonstrative example, and the exceedance probability distribution of multi-hazard risk to human life was calculated using natural hazard disaster life loss data for 1950–2010. Multi-hazard risk to human life is mapped as exceedance probability at different mortality rates and loss at different risk return periods using a geographical information system. Results show that Hangzhou and Ningbo are at a relatively high risk from multiple natural hazards, and Shanghai is at a relatively low risk. For scenarios of 10-, 20- and 50-year risk return periods, there are no significant changes in the risk rank of the cities; Hangzhou, Ningbo and Zhoushan are at a relatively high risk, while Shanghai is at a relatively low risk.
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Liu, B., Siu, Y.L., Mitchell, G. et al. Exceedance probability of multiple natural hazards: risk assessment in China’s Yangtze River Delta. Nat Hazards 69, 2039–2055 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0794-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0794-8