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Impact of climate change on rainfed rice and options for adaptation in the lower Mekong Basin

Natural Hazards volume 66, pages 905–938 (2013)Cite this article

Abstract

We assessed the potential impact of climate change on the yield of rainfed rice in the lower Mekong Basin and evaluated some adaptation options, using a crop growth simulation model. Future climate projections are based on IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as simulated by ECHAM4 global climate model downscaled for the Mekong Basin using the PRECIS system. We divided the basin into 14 agro-climatic zones and selected a sub-catchment within each zone for the model and assessed the impact for the period of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050. In general, the results suggest that yield of rainfed rice may increase significantly in the upper part of the basin in Laos and Thailand and may decrease in the lower part of the basin in Cambodia and Vietnam. The increase is higher during 2030–2050 compared to the period of 2010–2030 for A2 scenario. For B2 scenario, yield increase is higher during 2010–2030. The impact is mainly due to the change in rainfall and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. We have tested widely used adaptation options such as changing planting date, supplementary irrigation, and reduction in fertility stress and found that negative impact on yield can be offset and net increase in yield can be achieved.

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Acknowledgments

The authors express their sincere thanks to AusAID for funding this study and to SEA START RC for the provision of using PRECIS climate data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    Mohammed Mainuddin & Mac Kirby

  2. International Water Management Institute, Southeast Asia Regional Office, P. O. Box 4199, Vientiane, Laos PDR

    Chu Thai Hoanh

Authors
  1. Mohammed Mainuddin
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  2. Mac Kirby
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  3. Chu Thai Hoanh
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Correspondence to Mohammed Mainuddin.

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Mainuddin, M., Kirby, M. & Hoanh, C.T. Impact of climate change on rainfed rice and options for adaptation in the lower Mekong Basin. Nat Hazards 66, 905–938 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0526-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0526-5

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Adaptation
  • Rainfed rice
  • Mekong Basin
  • AquaCrop

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