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Vulnerability, hazards and multiple risk assessment for Georgia

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Abstract

The paper presents a framework for the nation-wide assessment of natural hazards, vulnerability and risk for the Republic of Georgia. Firstly, a relational database was created in order to collect all necessary information available. Secondly, hazard maps were drawn based on an innovative approach of assessing the magnitude and frequency of meteorological hazard types, where the corresponding formalization was not yet satisfying. Thirdly, the associated economic losses were evaluated and presented in monetary terms for some hazard types (droughts, hurricanes, hail, frost, flash floods and earthquakes), while for other types of hazards, the information remained descriptive. Fourthly, based on the hazard inventory, an approach was developed that allowed for the calculation of an overall vulnerability value for each individual hazard type, using the Gross Domestic Product per unit area (applied to population) as the indicator for elements at risk exposed. The correlation between estimated economic losses, physical exposure and the magnitude for each of the six types of hazards has been investigated in detail by using multiple linear regression analysis. Economic losses for all past events were estimated, and historical vulnerability was estimated. Finally, the spatial distribution of general vulnerability was assessed, and the expected maximum economic loss was calculated as well as a multi-risk map was set-up. The presented method will contribute to a reduction of disaster losses in Georgia and will foster future efforts of harmonization of risk management strategies in the country.

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Notes

  1. This project was implemented by the Caucasus Environmental NGO Network (CENN) and the Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, The Netherlands. The project was financially supported by the Social Transformation Programme for Central and Eastern Europe (MATRA) of The Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs (ATLAS 2012).

  2. http://www.emme-gem.org/ (23 August 2012).

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the valuable advice and literature provided by Tamaz Chelidze, the corresponding member of National Science Academy of Georgia and financial support of Georgian National Science Foundation (GNSF). Moreover, the authors kindly acknowledge the insightful comments of Sven Fuchs and two anonymous referees on an earlier draft of this article.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geophysics of Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

    Otar Varazanashvili, Nino Tsereteli, Avtandil Amiranashvili, Shota Adamia, Nika Arevadze & Aleksandre Gventcadze

  2. Institute of Geography of Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

    Emil Tsereteli

  3. Institute of Hydrometeorology of Georgian Technical University, Tbilisi, Georgia

    Elizbar Elizbarashvili, Lado Qaldani & Manana Saluqvadze

  4. The National Environmental Agency, Tbilisi, Georgia

    Jemal Dolidze

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  1. Otar Varazanashvili
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  2. Nino Tsereteli
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  3. Avtandil Amiranashvili
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  4. Emil Tsereteli
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  5. Elizbar Elizbarashvili
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  6. Jemal Dolidze
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  7. Lado Qaldani
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  8. Manana Saluqvadze
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  9. Shota Adamia
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  10. Nika Arevadze
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  11. Aleksandre Gventcadze
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Correspondence to Nino Tsereteli.

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Varazanashvili, O., Tsereteli, N., Amiranashvili, A. et al. Vulnerability, hazards and multiple risk assessment for Georgia. Nat Hazards 64, 2021–2056 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0374-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0374-3

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