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An integrated and transferable climate change vulnerability assessment for regional application

Natural Hazards volume 64, pages 1977–1999 (2012)Cite this article

Abstract

While sectoral vulnerability assessments have become common usage in the climate change field, integrated and transferable approaches are still rare. However, comprehensive knowledge is demanded to concretize and prioritize adaptation strategies, which are currently being drafted at national and state levels. We present a multisectoral analysis where sensitivity is quantified by the physical, social, environmental and economic dimension by means of tailor-made approaches for specific sectors. These are directly related to relevant exposure variables defined as relative climatic changes until the end of this century. Aggregation of the sector-specific impacts, comprising both sensitivity and exposure, leads to integrated impact measures. These are then combined with the generic adaptive capacity. We exemplify our methodology for municipalities in the German state North Rhine-Westphalia for two regional climate models. Our approach allows for the integrated assessment, while at the same time enabling a sector-specific perspective. However, various limitations remain, especially regarding the aggregation across sectors. We emphasize the need to consider the aim and methodological advantages and disadvantages before applying any vulnerability assessment.

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Notes

  1. Local administrative unit according to the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics of the European Union

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Acknowledgments

Fundamental parts of this study were carried out within the North Rhine-Westphalia study financed by the Ministry for Climate Protection, Environment, Agriculture, Nature Conservation and Consumer Protection (MUNLV) and within the ESPON Climate project part-financed by the European Regional Development Fund. We wish to thank the project team, especially Stefan Greiving, Johannes Lückenkötter, Christian Lindner from TU Dortmund University and Philipp Schmidt-Thomé from the Geological Survey of Finland for fruitful discussions on the methodology. We also thank our colleagues Ylva Hauf and Olivia Roithmeier for methodological support and Tabea Lissner for commenting on the manuscript.

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  1. RD II: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany

    Anne Holsten & Jürgen P. Kropp

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  1. Anne Holsten
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Correspondence to Anne Holsten.

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Holsten, A., Kropp, J.P. An integrated and transferable climate change vulnerability assessment for regional application. Nat Hazards 64, 1977–1999 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0147-z

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Keywords

  • Impact assessment
  • Global warming
  • Extreme event