Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Cognitive and affective responses of Florida tourists after exposure to hurricane warning messages

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Tourists are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as hurricanes since they might be less informed and prepared than residents of disaster-prone areas. Thus, understanding how the traits of a tropical cyclone as well as specific characteristics of tourists influence affective and cognitive responses to a hurricane warning message is a critical component in disaster planning. Using scenarios that presented tropical cyclones with different relevant characteristics (such as category at landfall), tourists’ knowledge, experience with hurricanes, trip traits, and the location of the survey (coastal or inland), this study contributes to the literature on sociological issues related to natural disasters. The findings suggest that risk perceptions and fear are influenced differently by the traits of the hurricanes and tourists’ knowledge and experience. Risk is strongly influenced by the projected category of the hurricane at landfall, while fear is not as sensitive to this extremely relevant trait of cyclones. The results also suggest that the influence of risk and fear on evacuation likelihood is strong and positive. This study shows the value of studying cognitive and affective responses to uncertain events.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arlikatti S, Lindell MK, Prater CS, Zhang Y (2006) Risk area accuracy and hurricane evacuation expectations of coastal residents. Environ Behav 38:226–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baker EJ (1991) Hurricane evacuation behavior. Int J Mass Emerg Dis 9(2):287–310

    Google Scholar 

  • Barron G, Erev I (2003) Feedback-based decisions and their limited correspondence to description-based decisions. J Behavl Decis Making 16:215–233

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Broad K, Leiserowitz A, Weinkle J, Steketee M (2007) Misinterpretations of the “cone of uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88(5):651–667. doi:10.1175/bams-88-5-651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown DP, Beven JL, Franklin ES, Blake ES (2010) Atlantic hurricane season of 2008. Mon Weather Rev 138(5):1975–2001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burnside R, Miller DS, Rivera JD (2007) The impact of information and risk perception on the hurricane evacuation decision-making of greater New Orleans residents. Sociol Spect 27(6):727–740. doi:10.1080/02732170701534226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Damasio AR (1994) Descartes’ error: emotion, reason, and the human brain. Putnam, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Daniels RJ, Loggins GM (2007) Conceptualizing continuous coverage: a strategic model for wall-to-wall local television weather broadcasts. J Appl Commun Res 35(1):48–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dash N, Gladwin H (2007) Evacuation decision making and behavioral responses: individual and household. Nat Hazards Rev 8(3):69–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dash N, Morrow BH (2001) Return delays and evacuation order compliance: the case of Hurricane Georges and the Florida Keys. Environ Hazards 2:119–128

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Decrop A (1999) Tourists’ decision-making and behavior processes. In: Pizam A, Mansfeld Y (eds) Consumer behavior in travel and tourism. Haworth Press, London, pp 103–133

    Google Scholar 

  • Dillon RL, Tinsley CH, Cronin M (2011) Why near-miss events can decrease an individual’s protective response to hurricanes. Risk Anal 31(3):440–449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dow K, Cutter SL (1998) Crying wolf: repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders. Coast Manage 26:237–252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dow K, Cutter SL (2000) Public orders and personal opinions: household strategies for hurricane risk assessment. Global Environ Change B Environ Hazards 2(4):143–155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drabek TE (1986) Human system responses to disaster. Springer, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Drabek TE (1991) Anticipating organizational evacuations: disaster planning by managers of tourist-oriented private firms. Int J Mass Emerg Disasters 9:219–245

    Google Scholar 

  • Drabek TE (1993) Variations in disaster evacuation behavior: public responses versus private sector executive decision-making processes. Disasters 16:104–118

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drabek TE (1994) Disaster evacuation and the tourist industry. In: Environment and behavior monograph no. 57. Natural Hazards Research and Application Information Center, Boulder, CO, p 282

  • Drabek TE (1996) Disaster evacuation behavior: tourists and other transients. In: Environment and behavior monograph no. 58. Natural Hazards Research and Application Information Center, Boulder, CO, p 354

  • Elsner JB, Niu XF, Jagger TH (2004) Detecting shifts in hurricane rates using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. J Clim 17:2652–2666

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Finucane ML, Alhakami A, Slovic P, Johnson SM (2000) The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits. J Behav Decis Mak 13(1):1–17. doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(200001/03)13:1<1:aid-bdm333>3.0.co;2-s

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frijda NH (1986) The emotions. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Fuchs G, Reichel A (2011) An exploratory inquiry into destination risk perceptions and risk reduction strategies of first time vs. repeat visitors to a highly volatile destination. Tour Manag 32:266–276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Isen AM (2004) Some perspectives on positive feelings and emotions: positive affect facilitates thinking and problem solving. In: Manstead ASR, Frijda N, Fischer A (eds) Feelings and emotions: the Amsterdam symposium. Studies in emotion and social interaction. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 263–281

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Izard CE (2007) Basic emotions, natural kinds, emotion schemas, and a new paradigm. Perspect Psychol Sci 2(3):260–280. doi:10.1111/j.1745-6916.2007.00044.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kusenbach M, Simms JL, Tobin GA (2010) Disaster vulnerability and evacuation readiness: coastal mobile home residents in Florida. Nat Hazards 52(1):79–95. doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9358-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Law R (2006) The perceived impact of risks on travel decisions. Int J Tour Res 8(4):289–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Le Doux JE (1996) The emotional brain. Simon & Schuster, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Lench HC, Flores SA, Bench SW (2011) Discrete emotions predict changes in cognition, judgment, experience, behavior, and physiology: a meta-analysis of experimental emotion elicitations. Psychol Bull (Suppl). doi:10.1037/a0024244

  • Lerner JS, Keltner D (2000) Beyond valence: toward a model of emotion-specific influences on judgement and choice. Cogn Emot 14(4):473–493. doi:10.1080/026999300402763

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindell MK, Lu JC, Prater CS (2005) Household decision making and evacuation in response to Hurricane Lili. Nat Hazards Rev 6:171–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loewenstein GF, Weber EU, Hsee CK, Welch N (2001) Risk as feelings. Psychol Bull 127(2):267–286. doi:10.1037/0033-2909.127.2.267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matyas C, Srinivasan S, Cahyanto I, Thapa B, Pennington-Gray L, Villegas J (2011) Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis. Nat Hazards 59(2):871–890. doi:10.1007/s11069-011-9801-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKelvey RD, Zavonia W (1975) A statistical model for the analysis of ordinal level dependent variables. J Math Sociol 4:103–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mileti DS, Sorensen JH (1988) Planning and implementing warning systems. In: Lystad M (ed) Mental health response to mass emergencies: theory and practice. Brunner/Mazel psychosocial stress series; no. 12. Brunner/Mazel, Philadelphia, PA, USA, pp 321–345

  • Perry RW, Green MR (1982) The Role of ethnicity in the emergency decision-making process. Sociol Inq 52(4):306–334

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petty RE, Cacioppo JT, Schumann DW (1983) Central and peripheral routes to advertising effectiveness: the moderating role of involvement. J Consumer Res 10:134–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Phillips BD, Morrow BH (2007) Social science research needs: focus on vulnerable populations, forecasting, and warnings. Nat Hazards Rev 8(3):61–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pizam A, Fleischer A (2002) Severity versus frequency of acts of terrorism: which has a larger impact on tourism demand? J Travel Res 40(3):337–339

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rappaport EN (2000) Loss of life in the United States associated with recent Atlantic tropical cyclones. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:2065–2073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rappaport EN et al (2009) Advances and challenges at the National Hurricane Center. Weather Forecast 24:395–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rincon E, Linares MYR, Greenberg B (2001) Effect of previous experience of a hurricane on preparedness for future hurricanes. Am J Emerg Med 19(4):276–279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roehl W, Fesenmaier D (1992) Risk perceptions and pleasure travel: an exploratory analysis. J Travel Res 30(4):17–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers RW (1983) Cognitive and physiological process in fear appeals and attitude change: a revised theory of protection motivation. In: Cacioppo J, Petty R (eds) Social psychophysiology. Guilford, New York, pp 153–174

    Google Scholar 

  • Simpson PM, Siguaw JA (2008) Perceived travel risks: the traveler perspective and manageability. Int J Tour Res 10:315–327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sirakaya E, Woodside AG (2005) Building and testing theories of decision making by travelers. Tour Manage 26:815–832

    Google Scholar 

  • Slovic P (1987) Perception of risk. Science 236(4799):280–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Slovic P, Finucane ML, Peters E, MacGregor DG (2004) Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality. Risk Anal Int J 24(2):311–322. doi:10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00433.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sonmez S, Graefe A (1998) Determining future travel behavior from past travel experience and perceptions of risk and safety. J Travel Res 37(2):171–177

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sorensen JH (2000) Hazard warning systems: review of 20 years of progress. Nat Hazards Rev 1(2):119–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stein RM, Duenas-Osorio L, Subramanian D (2010) Who evacuates when hurricanes approach? The role of risk, information, and location. Soc Sci Q 91(3):816–834

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svenson O, Salo I (2007) Mental representations of important real-life decisions. Eur J Oper Res 177(3):1353–1362. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2005.04.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor K, Priest S, Sisco HF, Banning S, Campbell K (2009) Reading hurricane Katrina: information sources and decision-making in response to a natural disaster. Soc Epistemol 23(3/4):361–380. doi:10.1080/02691720903374034

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Visit Florida (2011) 2010–2011 annual report. Visit Florida, Talahassee, FL

    Google Scholar 

  • Vogt CA, Fesenmaier DR (1998) Expanding the functional information search model. Ann Tour Res 25:551–578

    Google Scholar 

  • Whitehead JC, Edwards B, Van Willigen M, Maiolo JR, Wilson K, Smith KT (2000) Heading for higher ground: factors affecting real and hypothetical hurricane evacuation behavior. Environ Hazards 2:133–142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams LE, Bargh JA (2008) Keeping one’s distance: the influence of spatial distance cues on affect and evaluation. Psychol Sci 19(3):302–308. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2008.02084.x

    Google Scholar 

  • Zajonc RB (2008) Feeling and thinking: preferences need no inferences. In: Fazio RH, Petty RE (eds) Attitudes: their structure, function, and consequences. Key readings in social psychology. Psychology Press, New York, pp 143–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Zinn JO (2008) Heading into the unknown: everyday strategies for managing risk and uncertainty. Health Risk Soc 10(5):439–450. doi:10.1080/13698570802380891

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank the Eric Friedheim Foundation for their financial contribution that allowed us to conduct this study. We also thank the team of student assistants who helped to administer the surveys.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jorge Villegas.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Villegas, J., Matyas, C., Srinivasan, S. et al. Cognitive and affective responses of Florida tourists after exposure to hurricane warning messages. Nat Hazards 66, 97–116 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0119-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0119-3

Keywords

Navigation