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Developing a new sinuosity index for cyclone tracks in the tropical South Pacific

Natural Hazards volume 59, pages 1161–1174 (2011)Cite this article

Abstract

This paper introduces a new metric for tropical cyclone track shape within the tropical South Pacific (TSP) basin, based on measurements of track sinuosity. A sinuosity index (SI) is developed by applying a simple cube-root transformation to original track sinuosity values. Based on the resulting near-normal SI distribution, an ordinal four-category (quartile) naming system is then proposed for track-type classification. Track sinuosity patterns are also investigated over the last four decades (1970–2008). Analytical findings suggest that cyclone track sinuosity is an important parameter influencing the potential vulnerability of island archipelagoes to cyclone hazard. Principally, sinuously moving cyclones show some tendency for greater longevity and intensity than straighter-tracking storms and make up a larger proportion of systems forming in the western tropical South Pacific than those generated farther east. Although no long-term statistical trend can be established, track sinuosity is highly variable through time, implying that the TSP basin and the islands therein will continue to experience large but irregular inter-annual fluctuations in cyclone track morphology.

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Acknowledgments

This work would not have been possible without the kind assistance of the Fiji Meteorological Services. Rajendra Prasad and Simon McGree (former Director of FMS and Head of Climate Services Division) in particular are thanked for their advice on many issues concerning historical observations of cyclones in the South Pacific. The insightful comments of two anonymous referees are appreciated, as these enabled the original manuscript to be improved. Research funding from the Taiwan Trade Mission to Fiji, the University of the South Pacific and the National University of Singapore is gratefully acknowledged.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, AS2, 1 Arts Link, Kent Ridge, 117570, Singapore

    James P. Terry

  2. Department of Geomatics, School of Engineering, University of Alaska Anchorage, 3211 Providence Drive, Anchorage, AK, 99508-4514, USA

    Gennady Gienko

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  1. James P. Terry
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  2. Gennady Gienko
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Correspondence to James P. Terry.

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Terry, J.P., Gienko, G. Developing a new sinuosity index for cyclone tracks in the tropical South Pacific. Nat Hazards 59, 1161–1174 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9827-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9827-3

Keywords

  • Tropical cyclones
  • South Pacific
  • Track sinuosity