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Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

Abstract

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.

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Acknowledgments

The work presented in this paper has been funded by the New Zealand Foundation for Research and Technology (FRST) under contract number C05X0409. Quotable Value Limited provided one of the underlying property datasets for the used building inventory. Flood inundation scenarios were provided by the Hawke’s Bay Regional Council (HBRC).

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Correspondence to Jochen Schmidt.

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Schmidt, J., Matcham, I., Reese, S. et al. Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling. Nat Hazards 58, 1169–1192 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9721-z

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Keywords

  • Natural hazards
  • Multi-risk modelling
  • Quantitative risk analysis
  • Hawke’s Bay
  • New Zealand
  • Earthquakes
  • Wind storms
  • Floods