Natural Hazards

, Volume 62, Issue 1, pp 115–127 | Cite as

Forewarning of sustainable utilization of regional water resources: a model based on BP neural network and set pair analysis

  • Ju-Liang Jin
  • Yi-Ming Wei
  • Le-Le Zou
  • Li Liu
  • Wei-wei Zhang
  • Yu-liang Zhou
Original Paper


Early warning for sustainable utilization of regional water resources is an important control measure for regional water security management. To establish operable and quantitative forewarning model, in this paper, a new forewarning model for sustainable utilization of water resources based on BP neural network and set pair analysis (named BPSPA-FM for short) was established. In the proposed approach, the accelerating genetic algorithm–based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was suggested to determine the weights of evaluation indexes, back-propagation neural network updating model was used to predict the values of the evaluation indexes, and the set pair analysis was used to determine the function values of relative membership in variable fuzzy set of the samples. BPSPA-FM was applied to early warning for sustainable utilization of regional water resources of Yuanyang Hani terrace in Yunnan Province of China. The results show that the states of sustainable utilization in this system were near the critical value between nonalarm and slight alarm from 1990 to 2000, the states of the system fell into slight alarm and were rapidly close to intermediate alarm from 2001 to 2004, and the states of the system were predicted to be near the critical value between slight alarm and intermediate alarm from 2005 to 2010. The main alarm indexes of the system were utilization ratio of water in agriculture, control ratio of surface water, per capita water supply, per unit area irrigation water and per capita water consumption. BPSPA-FM can take full advantage of the changing information of the evaluation indexes in adjacent periods and the relationship between the samples and the criterion grades. The results of BPSPA-FM are reasonable with high accuracy. BPSPA-FM is general and can be applied to early warning problems of different natural hazards systems such as drought disaster.


Water security management Water resources sustainable utilization Forewarning model Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process Back-propagation neural network Set pair analysis Genetic algorithm 



The authors would like to thank the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the grant Nos. 51079037 and 71020107026, the CAS Strategic Priority Research Program Grant No. XDA05150600, the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 11th Five-year Plan Period (No. 2008BAC38B04-03-04) and the Opening Foundation of Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (LPM2011002). We thank the two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and suggestions on the earlier draft of our paper according to which we improved the content.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ju-Liang Jin
    • 1
    • 2
  • Yi-Ming Wei
    • 3
    • 6
  • Le-Le Zou
    • 4
  • Li Liu
    • 2
  • Wei-wei Zhang
    • 5
  • Yu-liang Zhou
    • 2
  1. 1.Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMAChengduChina
  2. 2.School of Civil EngineeringHefei University of TechnologyHefeiChina
  3. 3.School of Management & EconomicsBeijing Institute of TechnologyBeijingChina
  4. 4.Institute of Policy and ManagementChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  5. 5.College of Environmental Science and EngineeringTongji UniversityShanghaiChina
  6. 6.Center for Energy and Environmental Policy ResearchBeijing Institute of TechnologyBeijingChina

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