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Spatially explicit mapping of hurricane risk in New England, USA using ArcGIS

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Abstract

Hurricanes are one of the major natural disturbances affecting human livelihoods in coastal zones worldwide. Assessing hurricane risk is an important step toward mitigating the impact of tropical storms on human life and property. This study uses NOAA’s historical tropical cyclone database (HURDAT or ‘best-track’), geographic information systems, and kernel smoothing techniques to generate spatially explicit hurricane risk maps for New England. Southern New England had the highest hurricane risk across the region for all storm intensities. Long Island, western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, and southern Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket had high storm probabilities and wind speeds. Results from this study suggest that these locations may be of central importance for focusing risk amelioration resources along the Long Island and New England coastlines. This paper presents a simple methodology for hurricane risk assessment that could be applied to other regions where long-term spatial storm track data exist.

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Acknowledgments

The author wishes to thank Professor Ann Camp of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies and Tony Johnson of Northeast Utilities for assisting with this project. Funding for this research was provided by Northeast Utilities.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA

    H. M. Poulos

  2. Environmental Studies Program, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT, 06459, USA

    H. M. Poulos

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  1. H. M. Poulos
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Correspondence to H. M. Poulos.

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Poulos, H.M. Spatially explicit mapping of hurricane risk in New England, USA using ArcGIS. Nat Hazards 54, 1015–1023 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9502-0

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