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Repeated glacial-lake outburst floods in Patagonia: an increasing hazard?

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Abstract

Five similar glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred in April, October, December 2008, March and September 2009 in the Northern Patagonia Icefield. On each occasion, Cachet 2 Lake, dammed by the Colonia Glacier, released circa 200-million m3 water into the Colonia River. Refilling has occurred rapidly, such that further outbreak floods can be expected. Pipeflow calculations of the subglacial tunnel drainage and 1D hydraulic models of the river flood give consistent results, with an estimated peak discharge surpassing 3,000 m3 s−1. These floods were larger in magnitude than any flood on record, according to gauged data since 1963. However, geomorphological analysis of the Colonia valley shows physical evidence of former catastrophic outburst floods from a larger glacial-lake, with flood discharges possibly as high as 16,000 m3 s−1. Due to potential impacts of climate change on glacier dynamics in the area, jökulhlaups may increase future flood risks for infrastructure and population. This is particularly relevant in view of the current development of hydropower projects in Chilean Patagonia.

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Abbreviations

a,b :

Empirical coefficients for Clague-Mathews and Walder and Costa equations

h :

Head loss

λ :

Friction factor

K :

Head loss coefficient

D :

Diameter of conduit

R :

Hydraulic radius = D/4Φ

U :

\( {\text{Bulk}}\,{\text{flow}}\,{\text{velocity}} = {Q \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {Q {{{\pi D^{2} } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\pi D^{2} } {4\phi }}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {4\phi }}}}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {{{\pi D^{2} } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\pi D^{2} } {4\phi }}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {4\phi }}}} \)

Q :

Discharge

G :

Acceleration due to gravity

k s :

Equivalent sand grain roughness for ice walls

ν :

Kinematic viscosity

Re:

\( {\text{Reynolds}}\,{\text{number}} = {{UD} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{UD} \nu }} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} \nu } \)

Φ:

Pipe shape factor

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Acknowledgments

PBCT-Conicyt project ACI-70, with funding provided by the World Bank, supported this preliminary research. We also thank the field support from Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas Patagónicos (www.ciep.cl) and Dirección General de Aguas, DGA.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ingeniería Civil, Barrio Universitario, Universidad De Concepción, Casilla 160C, Concepción, Chile

    Alejandro Dussaillant & Claudio Meier

  2. Centro Ambiental EULA, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile

    Alejandro Dussaillant

  3. School of Geography, University of Southampton, SO17 1BJ, Southampton, UK

    Alejandro Dussaillant & Paul Carling

  4. Centro de Ciencias Medioambientales, CSIC, Serrano 115 bis, 28006, Madrid, Spain

    Gerardo Benito

  5. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

    Wouter Buytaert

  6. Imperial College, London, UK

    Wouter Buytaert

  7. Dirección General de Aguas, Región de Aysén, Coyhaique, Chile

    Fabián Espinoza

  8. Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia, Coyhaique, Chile

    Alejandro Dussaillant & Claudio Meier

Authors
  1. Alejandro Dussaillant
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  2. Gerardo Benito
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  3. Wouter Buytaert
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  4. Paul Carling
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  5. Claudio Meier
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Correspondence to Alejandro Dussaillant.

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Dussaillant, A., Benito, G., Buytaert, W. et al. Repeated glacial-lake outburst floods in Patagonia: an increasing hazard?. Nat Hazards 54, 469–481 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9479-8

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