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Operational tropical cyclone intensity prediction—an empirical technique

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Abstract

One very specific operational requirement of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Programme of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, New Delhi is to provide 12-hourly forecasts valid up to 48 h (preferably 72 h) on the intensity of cyclones over the southern Indian Seas. In this paper, a simple empirical model for predicting the intensity of TCs occurring in the Bay of Bengal is proposed. The model parameter has been determined from a database assembled on 30 recent cyclones, and the model itself is based on the assumption that a TC intensifies exponentially. A method for correcting the forecast during subsequent observation hours (6- or 12-h intervals) is also presented. The results show that the forecast skill for forecasts of up to 48 h is reasonably good. The absolute mean errors are less than 12 knots for 48-h forecasts, with the forecast skill decreasing with time. With the incorporation of a correction procedure based on the latest observations, some improvement in the forecast skill can be obtained. The model is expected to be useful to operational forecasters.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, 110003, India

    S. K. Roy Bhowmik, S. D. Kotal & S. R. Kalsi

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  1. S. K. Roy Bhowmik
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  2. S. D. Kotal
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  3. S. R. Kalsi
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Correspondence to S. K. Roy Bhowmik.

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Roy Bhowmik, S.K., Kotal, S.D. & Kalsi, S.R. Operational tropical cyclone intensity prediction—an empirical technique. Nat Hazards 41, 447–455 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9053-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9053-6

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