Contributions to the Deformation Analysis in Germany Based on Precise and Continuous GPS Measurements

Abstract

Modern space geodetic techniques enable deformation monitoring of continental plate interiors with high spatial and temporal coverage. Resolving data and results are currently evaluated for their application for the integrated assessment of seismic hazard and risk in Germany. This goes especially for regions where earthquakes are generally rare but high magnitudes are still not unrealistic while vulnerability of today’s society is steadily growing. The present contribution deals with the continuous monitoring of tectonic fracture systems in Germany using the GPS. The estimation of the station velocities with GPS and the resulting geodetic strain is supposed to provide additional input to the earthquake hazard assessment. Unfortunately, the low expected and currently seen velocities (<1–2 mm/year) make it extremely difficult to distinguish between noise and a tectonic signal. Because of the short observation interval the velocity uncertainties are about 2 mm/year in the horizontal components. The essential goal of this program is to provide and model highly precise deformation data and to discuss its needs for a better assessment of geological hazard, especially for the most active tectonic regions in Germany, the Rhine-Graben, the Swabian Alb, the Alpine foreland, and the Vogtland. Here we present preliminary results from 2 years of measurements at currently 150 GPS stations throughout Germany. The time span of this program has proven to be too short and the density of the station network to be not dense enough yet for reliable significant horizontal station velocities and supporting the earthquake hazard assessment.