Network models of energy markets have been beneficial for analyses and decision-making to tackle challenges related to the production, distribution and consumption of energy in its various forms. Despite the growing awareness of environmental and safety impacts of fuel transfer, such as emissions, spills and other harmful effects, existing energy models for various types of networks are yet to fully capture modal distinctions which are relevant to providing pathways to limiting these impacts. To address this deficit in detailed multimodal analyses, we have built on recent work to develop a partial-equilibrium model that incorporates the representation of multimodal fuel transfer within energy networks. In a novel application to the North American crude oil market, we also demonstrate that our model is a useful tool for exploring avenues for reducing the risks of light and heavy crude oil transportation across this region. The results we obtain indicate that a combined strategy of rail loading restrictions, pipeline deployments and a discontinuation of the oil export ban is most effective in reducing the transportation of crude oil by rail and thereby mitigating the associated risks.
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General Algebraic Modeling Systems (GAMS), release 23.9.5; GAMS Development Corporation, https://www.gams.com/.
We calculate end-use costs as in Huppmann and Egging (2014).
Kilian (2014) provides a comprehensive background on the effects of this “shale revolution” on prices and infrastructure in the US.
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These include: RBN Energy, Hart Energy, Genscape, BNSF, Canadian Pacific, Canadian National, Meritage Midstream, Howard Energy Partners, and Rangeland Energy
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This “Final Rule”—“Hazardous Materials: Enhanced Tank Car Standards and Operational Controls for High-Hazard Flammable Trains”—was developed in collaboration with the Pipeline and Hazardous Safety Administration in 2014. Available at http://federalregister.gov/r/2137-AE91(Federal Register).
See New York Times report by C. Davenport, 2015, at http://nyti.ms/1MN5hpL.
A description of the Energy East pipeline project is available from the NEB at http://bit.ly/1kBcNr1.
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See 2015 Bismark Tribune article by N. Smith at http://bit.ly/1jrcbEq
See Bakken Magazine article for more information regarding the Dakota Access pipeline approval at http://bit.ly/1S8z8Gt.
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J. Bordoff presented data suggesting that strong opinions against oil exports still persisted among the general public in 2014 (https://www.eia.gov/conference/2014/pdf/presentations/bordoff.pdf).
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American Petroleum Institute
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Energy Information Administration (United States)
thousand barrels per day
Mixed Complementarity Problem
million barrels per day
North American Crude Oil Model
National Energy Board (Canada)
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Petroleum Administration Defense District
Rest of the World (excluding North America)
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This work was partially funded by the Gordon Croft Fellowship awarded by the Energy, Environment, Sustainability and Health Institute (E2SHI) at The Johns Hopkins University. Further support was also due to NSF Grant #1745375 [EAGER: SSDIM: Generating Synthetic Data on Interdependent Food, Energy, and Transportation Networks via Stochastic, Bi-level Optimization]. For their valuable comments and suggestions, we thank: Lissy Langer (TU Berlin), Gary Lin and Dr. Felipe Feijoo (Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering). We are also grateful to David Livingston and Eugene Tan (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) for their time and insightful conversations.
The model in this article is based in part on the multi-fuel energy equilibrium model, MultiMod (Huppmann et al. 2015), developed by Dr. Daniel Huppmann at DIW Berlin as part of the RESOURCES project, in collaboration with Dr. Ruud Egging (NTNU, Trondheim), Dr. Franziska Holz (DIW Berlin) and others (see http://diw.de/multimod). We are grateful to the original developers of MultiMod for sharing their model, which we further extended as part of this work.
Finally, we would like to thank our anonymous reviewers whose critique and recommendations improved the impact and quality of our manuscript.
Conflict of interests
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Appendix A: Supplementary material
Appendix A: Supplementary material
A complete enumeration of the nodes and arcs, along with the flow calibration details of NACOM are provided in the Supplementary Material document available at https://github.com/MODLJHU/nacom. Data and processing code are also available for download at this location.
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Oke, O., Huppmann, D., Marshall, M. et al. Multimodal Transportation Flows in Energy Networks with an Application to Crude Oil Markets. Netw Spat Econ 19, 521–555 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11067-018-9387-0
- Energy networks
- Market equilibrium
- Mixed complementarity problem