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Linking hybrid mensurational/eco-physiological growth and yield models with crop establishment: a replacement for time gain analysis

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Abstract

Forest managers often estimate gains from site preparation treatments during plantation establishment using the reduction in time required to grow a given yield compared with a control (when treatments are employed compared to when they are not employed). Two types of responses to treatments have been identified; temporary changes that offer a time gain that becomes constant after site changes cease to affect growth (type I) and persistent changes that result in a continuously increasing time gain throughout a crop rotation (type II). An alternative to this statistical approach is to use a hybrid physiological/mensurational model of forest production that explicitly represents growth processes underlying observed responses. We compared a regional hybrid growth and yield model with a purely mensurational one for representing observed responses in two site preparation experiments in the Central North Island region of New Zealand. Simulations were initiated with crop measurements following the first 5 years of growth in the two experiments, along with reasonable estimates of impacts of site preparation on sites and growth processes. These estimates of site changes were made prior to the simulation and were not varied after simulation results were known. The hybrid model successfully predicted a type I response following weed control and a type II response following soil cultivation, while the mensurational model failed to represent the type II response. Growth in basal area without soil cultivation was underestimated by 3 m3 ha−1, leading to an overestimate of gain. A hybrid modelling approach is therefore an alternative to a purely statistical time gain analysis that can provide useful estimates of gain so long as changes to sites and growth processes made by site preparation are well understood.

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Acknowledgments

The experiments used in this study were established and measured with the help of my colleagues at the Silvicultural Equipment Research group at the New Zealand Forest Research Institute, and I am extremely grateful to them. Late rotation measurements at the Kangaroa site were funded by the University of Canterbury.

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  1. School of Forestry, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand

    Euan G. Mason

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  1. Euan G. Mason
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Correspondence to Euan G. Mason.

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Mason, E.G. Linking hybrid mensurational/eco-physiological growth and yield models with crop establishment: a replacement for time gain analysis. New Forests 44, 951–959 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-013-9387-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-013-9387-3

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