Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Analysis of Ultimate Fossil Fuel Reserves and Associated CO2 Emissions in IPCC Scenarios

  • Published:
Natural Resources Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) commissioned a special report on emissions scenarios in 2000 so as to forecast global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for a variety of assumptions. These scenarios have been subjected to a multitude of criticisms, alleging overoptimistic predictions for fossil fuel production rates. Intrigued by this controversy, this paper employs the Hubbert linearization technique to solve for ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of fossil fuels for six significant IPCC scenarios. The predictions are substantially higher than geological URR estimates found in recent literature, ranging from 19 to over 200% higher for oil, 16 to over 500% for coal, and 171 to over 500% for natural gas, depending on the scenario. Subsequently, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from full consumption of URR related to IPCC data, as well as literature-based URR, are determined with a simple model. The former concentrations range from 640 to over 1,300 ppm. In comparison, the peak-based URR in the literature yield 463–577 ppm. All of these figures are higher than the 450 ppm ‘threshold’ which some see as critical. Therefore, despite peaking fossil fuels, concern over climate change is still warranted. At the same time, the fossil fuel production inputs to the IPCC’s CO2 emissions models appear predominantly overoptimistic, which calls into question the accuracy of the climate change assessment outputs. Moving forward, the IPCC is encouraged to re-assess its fossil fuel forecasts, incorporating more reasonable scenarios for peak production of fossil fuels.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
Figure 11
Figure 12
Figure 13
Figure 14
Figure 15
Figure 16
Figure 17
Figure 18
Figure 19
Figure 20
Figure 21
Figure 22

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Note that the economic conditions and the price of fossil fuels depend largely on the state of the global economy and the technology for fossil fuel extraction. This adds additional uncertainty to the SRES scenarios.

References

  • Bartlett, A. (2000). An analysis of U.S. and world oil production patterns using Hubbert-style curves. Mathematical Geology, 32(1), 1–17.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bentley, R. W., Mannan, S. A., & Wheeler, S. J. (2007). Assessing the date of the global oil peak: The need to use 2P reserves. Energy Policy, 35, 6364–6382.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berg, P., Hanz, P., & Milton, I. (2011). An energy-economic oil production model. IMA Journal of Applied Mathematics,. doi:10.1093/imamat/hxr049.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berg, P., & Korte, S. (2008). Higher-order Hubbert models for the world oil production. Journal of Petroleum Science and Technology, 26, 217–230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • BGR. (2010). Reserves, resources and availability of energy resources 2010. Annual Report. Bundesanstalt fuer Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover.

  • BGR. (2011). Reserves, resources and availability of energy resources 2011. Annual Report. Bundesanstalt fuer Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover.

  • Brandt, A. R. (2007). Testing Hubbert. Energy Policy, 35, 3074–3088.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brecha, R. J. (2008). Emission scenarios in the face of fossil fuel peaks. Energy Policy, 36(9), 3492–3504.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, C., & Laherrere, J. (1998, March). The end of cheap oil. Scientific American.

  • Cavallo, A. J. (2004). Hubbert’s petroleum production model: an evaluation and implications for world oil production forecasts. Natural Resources Research, 13(4), 211–221.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coghlan, A. (2003). ‘Too little’ oil for global warming. New Scientists, 05 October 2003. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn4216-too-little-oil-for-global-warming.html.

  • Hansen, J., et al. (2008). Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? arXiv, arXiv:0804.1126.

  • Höök, M., Li, J., Oba, N., & Snowden, S. (2011). Descriptive and predictive growth curves in energy system analysis. Natural Resources Research, 20(2), 103–116.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Höök, M., Sivertsson, A., & Aleklett, K. (2010). Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC emission scenarios. Natural Resources Research, 19(2), 63–81.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Höök, M., & Tang, X. (2013). Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review. Energy Policy, 52, 797–809.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hubbert, M. K. (1956). Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels. Drilling and Production Practice, American Petroleum Institute, New York, pp. 7–25.

  • Hubbert, M. K. (1959). Techniques of prediction with application to the petroleum industry. Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research Division, Houston, Publication 204.

  • Hubbert, M. K. (1982). Techniques of prediction as applied to the production of oil and gas (Vol. 631). Gaithersburg: National Bureau of Standards.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes, D. (2011). Will natural gas fuel America in the 21st century?. Santa Rosa, CA: Post Carbon Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA. (2011). IEA world energy outlook 2011. Paris: International Energy Agency.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • IEA. (2012). IEA world energy outlook 2012. Paris: International Energy Agency.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC. (2007). IPCC fourth assessment report. Climate change 2007: Synthesis report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.

  • Jevons, W. S. (1865). The coal question: an inquiry concerning the progress of the nation. London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Joos, F., Bruno, M., Fink, R., Siegenthaler, U., Stocker, T. F., Le Quere, C., et al. (1996). An efficient and accurate representation of complex oceanic and biospheric models of anthropogenic carbon uptake. Tellus, Series A and Series B, 48B, 397–417.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kharech, P. A., & Hansen, J. E. (2008). Implications of peak oil for atmospheric CO2 and climate. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22, GB3012. doi:10.1029/2007GB003142.

  • Laherrere, J. (2001). Estimates of oil reserves. Resource document. Paper presented at EMF/IEA/IEW Meeting, IIASA, Laxenburg, 19 June 2001. http://www.energycrisis.com/laherrere/iiasa_reserves_long.pdf.

  • Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W, I. I. I. (1972). The limits to growth. New York: Universe Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murphy, T. (2011). Is climate change real? Resource document. OilPrice. http://oilprice.com/The-Environment/Global-Warming/Is-Climate-Change-Real-Take-a-Look-at-the-Science-Before-you-Decide.html. Accessed 5 April 2013.

  • Nehring, R. (2006a). Two basins show Hubbert’s method underestimates future oil production. Oil & Gas Journal, 104(13), 37–42.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nehring, R. (2006b). How Hubbert method fails to predict oil production in the Permian Basin. Oil & Gas Journal, 104(15), 30–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nehring, R. (2006c). Post-Hubbert challenge is to find new methods to predict production. Oil & Gas Journal, 104(16), 43–46.

    Google Scholar 

  • Patzek, T. W., & Croft, G. D. (2010). A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis. Energy, 35(8), 3109–3122.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogner, H.-H. (1997). An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources. Annual Review of Energy and Environment, 22, 217–262.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rutledge, D. (2010). Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms. International Journal of Coal Geology, 85(1), 23–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sorrell, S., & Speirs, J. (2010). Hubbert’s legacy: A review of curve-fitting methods to estimate ultimately recoverable resources. Natural Resources Research, 19(3), 209–230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SRES. (2000). Special report on emissions scenarios. ISBN: 92-9169-113-5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, The Hague.

  • Turner, G. M. (2008). A comparison of the limits to growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change, 18, 397–411.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UKERC. (2009a). Global oil depletion. ISBN 1-903144-0-35.

  • UKERC. (2009b). Technical report 2: Definition and interpretation of reserve estimates. UKERC/WP/TPA/2009/017.

  • UKERC. (2009c). Technical report 3: The nature and importance of reserve growth. UKERC/WP/TPA/2009/018.

  • UKERC. (2009d). Technical report 5: Methods of estimating ultimately recoverable resources. UKERC/WP/TPA/2009/020.

  • US EIA. (2011). International energy outlook 2011. Washington, DC: Energy Information Agency.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, NTNU, 7491, Trondheim, Norway

    Peter Berg

  2. Faculty of Science, UOIT, 2000 Simcoe Street N., Oshawa, ON, L1H 7K4, Canada

    Anthony Boland

Authors
  1. Peter Berg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Anthony Boland
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Peter Berg.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Berg, P., Boland, A. Analysis of Ultimate Fossil Fuel Reserves and Associated CO2 Emissions in IPCC Scenarios. Nat Resour Res 23, 141–158 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-013-9207-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-013-9207-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation