Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

How to Include Ignorance into Hydrocarbon-Resource Assessments? A Case Study Applied to the Presence of Source Rock at the Argentine Deep Water Margin

  • Published:
Natural Resources Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The underexplored deep Argentine continental margin may be a prospective area for hydrocarbon resources. This study quantifies the degree of certainty about a fundamental part in a petroleum system, the presence of source rocks. Probability theory and, in particular, Bayesian networks provide powerful assessment tools based on incomplete knowledge. However, they should not be applied uncritically in cases where necessary assumptions like independence are not fulfilled or prior probabilities are not known. We discuss the difference between a low probability and the ignorance of a hypothesis, and apply an alternative method to the assessment of source rock presence. The results of this probabilistic argumentation system coincide with the intuitive judgement, stating that there is a quantifiable evidence for a source rock, but no evidence against it.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Baldi, J. E., & Nevistic, V. A. (1996). Cuenca Costa Afuera del Golfo San Jorge. In V. A. Ramos & M. A. Turic (Eds.), Geologia y recursos naturales de la plataforma continental Argentina, relatario XIII Congreso Geologico Argentino y III Congreso de Exploracion de Hidrocarboros (pp. 171–192). Buenos Aires: Association Geologica Argentina & Instituto Argentino del Petroleo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bengtson, P., & Koutsoukos, E. A. M. (1992). Ammonite and foraminiferal dating of the first marine connection between the central and south Atlantic. In Geologie Africaine; 1er colloque de Stratigraphie et de paleogeographie des bassins sedimentaires ouest-africains; 2e colloque africain de Micropaleontologie (pp. 403), Libreville, Gabon.

  • Bolli, H. M., Ryan, W. B. F., Foresman, J. B., Hottman, W. E., Kagami, H., Longoria, J. F., McKnight, B. K., Melguen, M., Natland, J. H., Proto Decima, F., Siesser, W. G. (1978), Cape Basin Continental Rise-Sites 360 and 361 Rep., pp. 29–175.

  • Dempster, A. P. (2008). The Dempster–Shafer calculus for statisticians. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 48(2), 365–377.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eagles, G. (2007). New angles on South Atlantic opening. Geophysical Journal International, 168, 353–361.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fisher, R. A. (1956). Statistical methods and scientific inference. Edinburgh: Oliver and Boyd.

    Google Scholar 

  • Franke, D., Ladage, S., Schnabel, M., Schreckenberger, B., Reichert, C., Hinz, K., et al. (2010). Birth of a volcanic margin off Argentina, South Atlantic. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 11, Q0AB04.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Franke, D., Neben, S., Ladage, S., Schreckenberger, B., & Hinz, K. (2007). Margin segmentation and volcano-tectonic architecture along the volcanic margin off Argentina/Uruguay. South Atlantic: Marine Geology, 244, 46–67.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fryklund, B., Marshal, A., & Stevens, J. (1996). Cuenca del Colorado. In V. A. Ramos & M. A. Turic (Eds.), Geologia y recursos naturales de la plataforma continental Argentina, relatario XIII Congreso Geologico Argentino y III Congreso de Exploracion de Hidrocarboros (pp. 135–158). Buenos Aires: Association Geologica Argentina and Instituto Argentino del Petroleo, Association Geologica Argentina and Instituto Argentino del Petroleo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gladczenko, T. P., Hinz, K., Eldholm, O., Meyer, H., Neben, S., & Skogseid, J. (1997). South Atlantic volcanic margins. Journal of the Geological Society, 154, 465–470.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gradstein, F. M., Ogg, J. G., & Smith, A. G. (2005). A Geologic Time Scale 2004 (p. 589). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Grassmann, S., Franke, D., Neben, S., Schnabel, M., & Damm, V. (2011). Maturity modeling of the deepwater continental margin, offshore Argentina. Zeitschrift Der Deutschen Gesellschaft Fur Geowissenschaften., 162/1, 79–89.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gruetzner, J., Uenzelmann-Neben, G., & Franke, D. (2011). Variations in bottom water activity at the southern Argentine margin: Indications from a seismic analysis of a continental slope terrace. Geo-Marine Letters, 31, 405–417.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haenni, R. (2009). Probabilistic argumentation. Journal of Applied Logic, 7(2), 155–176. Special issue: Combining Probability and Logic.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haenni, R., & Lehmann, N. (2003). ABEL: An interactive tool for probabilistic argumentative reasoning. In T. D. Nielsen & N. L. Zhang (Eds.): Symbolic and quantitative approaches to reasoning with uncertainty, 7th European Conference, ECSQARU 2003, Aalborg, Denmark, July 2–5, 2003. Proceedings. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (Vol. 2711). Springer, ISBN 3-540-40494-5.

  • Haenni, R., Romeyn, J.-W., Wheeler, G., & Williamson, J. (2010). Probabilistic logic and probabilistic networks. The Synthese Library. Dordrecht: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hernández-Molina, F. J., Paterlini, M., Somoza, L., Violante, R., Arecco, M. A., de Isasi, M., et al. (2010). Giant mounded drifts in the Argentine Continental Margin: Origins, and global implications for the history of thermohaline circulation. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 27, 1508–1530.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hinz, K. (1981). A hypothesis on terrestrial catastrophes: Wedges of very thick oceanward dipping layers beneath passive continental margins—their origin and paleoenvironmental significance. Geologisches Jahrbuch, Reihe E, 22, 3–28.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hinz, K., Neben, S., Schreckenberger, B., Roeser, H. A., Block, M., Souza, K Gd, et al. (1999). The Argentine continental margin north of 48°S: Sedimentary successions, volcanic activity during breakup. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 16, 1–25.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jokat, W., Boebel, T., König, M., & Meyer, U. (2003). Timing and geometry of early Gondwana breakup. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, 2428.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Juan, Rd C, De Jager, J., Russell, J., & Gebhard, I. (1996). Flanco norte de la cuenca del Colorado. In V. A. Ramos & M. A. Turic (Eds.), Geologia y recursos naturales de la plataforma continental Argentina, relatario XIII° Congreso Geologico Argentino y III° Congreso de Exploracion de Hidrocarboros (pp. 117–134). Buenos Aires: Association Geologica Argentina and Instituto Argentino del Petroleo, Association Geologica Argentina and Instituto Argentino del Petroleo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jungslager, E. H. A. (1999). Petroleum habitats of the Atlantic margin of South Africa. In N. R. Cameron, R. H. Bate, & V. S. Clure (Eds.), The oil and gas habitats of the South Atlantic (Vol. 153, pp. 153–168). London: Geological Society Special Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalheim, J.-E. (2000). The CCOP guidelines for risk assessment of petroleum prospects. Report, (July), 35 pp. www.ccop.or.th/ppm/document/INWS1/INWS1DOC11_caluyong.pdf.

  • Karner, G. D., Driscoll, N. W., & Barker, D. H. N. (2003). Syn-rift regional subsidence across the West African continental margin: The role of lower plate ductile extension (Vol. 207, pp. 105–129). London: Geological Society Special Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kohlas, J. (1997). Allocation of arguments and evidence theory. Theoretical Computer Science, 171(1–2), 221–246.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kohlas, J., & Monney, P. A. (1995). A mathematical theory of hints. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems (Vol. 425). Springer, Berlin.

  • Kohlas, J., & Monney, P. A. (2008). Statistical information: Assumption-based statistical inference, v 3 of Sigma Series in Stochastics. Lemgo: Heldermann.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kriegler, E. (2005). Imprecise probability analysis for integrated assessment of climate Change, University of Potsdam Ph.D. dissertation, 258 pp.

  • Lawrence, S. R., Johnson, M., Tubb, S. R., & Marshallsea, S. J. (1999). Tectono-stratigraphic evolution of the North Falkland region. In N. R. Cameron, R. H. Bate, & V. S. Clure (Eds.), The oil and gas habitats of the South Atlantic (pp. 409–424). London: Geological Society Special Publication.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lawver, L. A., Gahagan, L. M., & Dalziel, I. W. D. (1998). A tight fit-Early Mesozoic Gondwana, a plate reconstruction perspective. Memoirs of National Institute of Polar Research, 53, 214–229.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lowrance, J. D. (2007). Graphical manipulation of evidence in structured arguments: Oxford Journal of Law. Probability and Risk, 6, 225–240.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Macdonald, D., Gomez-Perez, I., Franzese, J., Spalletti, L., Lawver, L., Gahagan, L., et al. (2003). Mesozoic break-up of SW Gondwana: Implications for regional hydrocarbon potential of the southern South Atlantic. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 20, 287–308.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Magoon, L. B., & Dow, W. G. (2000). Mapping the petroleum system–an investigative technique to explore the hydrocarbon system. In M. R. Mello & B. J. Katz (Eds.), Petroleum systems of South Atlantic Margins (pp. 53–68), Tulsa, Oklahoma.

  • Martinelli, G., Eidsvik, J., Hauge, R., & Forland, M. D. (2011). Bayesian networks for prospect analysis in the North Sea. AAPG Bulletin, 95, 1423–1442.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moulin, M., Aslanian, D., Olivet, J.-L., Contrucci, I., Matias, L., Geli, L., et al. (2005). Geological constraints on the evolution of the Angolan margin based on reflection and refraction seismic data (ZaïAngo project). Geophysical Journal International, 162, 793–810.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moulin, M., Aslanian, D., & Unternehr, P. (2009). A new starting point for the South and Equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Earth-Science Reviews, 97, 59–95.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mutter, J. C., Talwani, M., & Stoffa, P. L. (1982). Origin of seaward-dipping reflectors in oceanic crust off the Norwegian margin by “subaerial sea-floor spreading”. Geol, 10, 353–357.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nürnberg, D., & Müller, R. D. (1991). The tectonic evolution of the South Atlantic from Late Jurassic to present. Tectonophysics, 191, 27–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pletsch, T., Erbacher, J., Holbourn, A. E. L., Kuhnt, W., Moullade, M., Oboh-Ikuenobede, F. E., et al. (2001). Creatceous separation of Africa and America: The view from the West African margin. Journal of South American Earth Sciences, 14, 147–174.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rabinowitz, P. D., & Labrecque, J. L. (1979). The Mesozoic South Atlantic Ocean and evolution of its continental margins. Journal of Geophysical Research, 84, 5973–6002.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richards, P. C., & Hillier, B. V. (2000). Post-drilling analysis of the North Falkland Basin—part 1: Tectono-stratigraphic framework. Journal of Petroleum Geology, 23, 253–272.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ross, J. G., Pichin, J., Griffin, D. G., Dinkelmann, M. G., Turic, M. A., & Nevistic, V. A. (1996). Cuenca de Malvinas Norte. In V. A. Ramos & M. A. Turic (Eds.), Geologia y recursos naturales de la plataforma continental Argentina, relatario XIII Congreso Geologico Argentino y III Congreso de Exploracion de Hidrocarboros (pp. 253–271). Buenos Aires: Association Geologica Argentina and Instituto Argentino del Petroleo, Association Geologica Argentina and Instituto Argentino del Petroleo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmidt, S., Cramer, B., Gerling, P., Neben, S., & Littke, R. (2001). The hydrocarbon potential of the southern Atlantic conjugate continental margins of Argentina and Namibia/South Africa. Schriftenreihe der Deutschen Geologischen Gesellschaft, 14, 184–185.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schuenemeyer, J. H. (2002). A Framework for expert judgement to assess oil and gas resources. Natural Resources Research, 11(2), 97–107.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shafer, G. (1976). A mathematical theory of evidence (p. 297). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Szatmari, P. (2000). Habitat of petroleum along the South Atlantic margins. In M. R. Mello & B. J. Katz (Eds.), Petroleum systems of South Atlantic margins (pp. 69–75). Tulsa, OK: AAPG Memoir 73, ISBN 0-89181-354-3.

  • Tavella, G. F., & Wright, C. G. (1996). Cuenca del Salado. In V. A. Ramos & M. A. Turic (Eds.), Geologia y recursos naturales de la plataforma continental Argentina, relatario XIII° Congreso Geologico Argentino y III° Congreso de Exploracion de Hidrocarboros (pp. 95–116). Buenos Aires: Association Geologica Argentina and Instituto Argentino del Petroleo, Association Geologica Argentina and Instituto Argentino del Petroleo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Unternehr, P., Curie, D., Olivet, J. L., Goslin, J., & Beuzart, P. (1988). South Atlantic fits and intraplate boundaries in Africa and South America. Tectonophysics, 155, 169–179.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wiencierz, A., & Arthur, P. (2009). Dempster’s generalized inference theory: Theoretical foundations, extensions and modern applications. Ludwig Maximilians Universität München, master thesis, 69 pp.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Stilleweg 2, 30655, Hannover, Germany

    Sönke Rehder & Dieter Franke

Authors
  1. Sönke Rehder
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Dieter Franke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Dieter Franke.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Rehder, S., Franke, D. How to Include Ignorance into Hydrocarbon-Resource Assessments? A Case Study Applied to the Presence of Source Rock at the Argentine Deep Water Margin. Nat Resour Res 21, 301–309 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-012-9182-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-012-9182-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation