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Network Security Situation Prediction of Improved Lanchester Equation Based on Time Action Factor

Abstract

Existing network security situational awareness assessment and prediction are not fully considered network defense utility, time factor and other indicators, and the randomness of attacks and the accuracy of the prediction of attack intentions and methods may appear both in active and passive defense this situation leads to uncertainty in attack prediction, which makes it impossible to discover defects in the network system in a timely manner, and there is a lack of effective emergency response strategies for impending or already occurring network attacks. Therefore, this paper proposes a network behavior calculation model based on the Lanchester equation of time action factor is proposed. This paper uses smooth differential manifold homeomorphic transformation to define network behavior, defines the calculation method of behavior utility based on the principle of differential geometry, combines the second linear law of the Lanchester equation and the square law, and uses the time action factor to defend the active defense. The simulation results show that the model can be used to analyze the network offensive and defensive process, and can effectively predict the network offensive and defensive results under both active and passive defense.

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Acknowledgements

Authors would like to thank the reviewers for their detailed reviews and constructive comments, which have helped, improve the quality of this study. This work was supported in part by The National Natural Science Fund under Grant No. 61672206 and The Key Research and Development Program of Hebei No. 20310701D.

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Correspondence to Dongmei Zhao.

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Song, H., Zhao, D. & Yuan, C. Network Security Situation Prediction of Improved Lanchester Equation Based on Time Action Factor. Mobile Netw Appl 26, 1008–1023 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11036-020-01666-5

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Keywords

  • Lanchester equation
  • Situation prediction
  • Time action factor
  • Differential manifold