Abstract
Better modeling of urbanization trends helps improve our understanding of the potential range of future energy demands and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and make informed response strategies. This paper extends the current analytical structure by integrating the population migration process from rural to urban areas with the energy system into a systematic framework, within which a link between urbanization and energy service demands through direct and indirect effects is built. Taking China as a study case, the results show that approximately 333 million people from rural areas are expected to migrate to urban areas toward 2050, resulting in the expansion of large-sized cities and the rapid growth of future energy service demands. Without significant technological improvements, urbanization will lead to more than double and triple the current energy consumption levels by 2050 in the building and transport sectors, respectively, while energy consumption growth in the industry sector will be the largest due to the rising demand for materials through the indirect effect. As a result, urbanization in China will cause more than double the total primary energy demand and an 82% increase in the carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, compared with 2013. In response, major mitigation measures and the role of each sector in the low carbon urbanization transition have been identified. Non-fossil fuel power generation is the top mitigation strategy, which can contribute 40% to the total mitigation potential, while power sector and industrial sector play a key role in realizing an earlier peak for the whole country. The total capital investment needed in each period will cost less than 2.5% of the total gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, this work highlights the importance of understanding urbanization impact on energy system through applying an integrated population-energy-environment analytical framework and synthesizing the urbanization and long-term low carbon strategies in developing countries which are under rapid urbanization process.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Blanco G, Gerlagh G, Suh S (2014) Drivers, trends and mitigation. In: Climate change 2014: Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Buchner H, Laner D, Rechberger H, Fellner J (2014) In-depth analysis of aluminum flows in Austria as a basis to increase resource efficiency. Resour Conserv Recycl 93:112–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.09.016
Building energy conservation research center (2008-2016) Annual report on China building energy efficiency2008–2016. China Architecture & Building Press, Beijing
Cao Z, Shen L, Liu L, Zhao J, Zhong S, Kong H, Sun Y (2017) Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920–2013. Resour Conserv Recycl 122:21–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.01.021
Cheng Z, Guo F, Hugo G, Yuan X (2013) Employment and wage discrimination in the Chinese cities: a comparative study of migrants and locals. Habitat Int 39:246–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2012.11.007
China Quality Certification Centre (2013) Guideline for GHG inventory and report for China’s aluminum company. http://www.gov.cn/gzdt/att/att/site1/20131104/001e3741a2cc13e13f2105.pdf. Accessed 3 Jan 2019
Clarke L, Jiang K, Akimoto K, et al (2014) Assessing transformation pathways. In: Climate change 2014: Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Dai Y, Zhu Y, Bai Q (2010) China’s low carbon development pathways by 2050. Rev Econ Res 26:2–22. https://doi.org/10.16110/j.cnki.issn2095-3151.2010.26.002
De Lauretis S, Ghersi F, Cayla JM (2017) Energy consumption and activity patterns: an analysis extended to total time and energy use for French households. Appl Energy 206:634–648. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.180
Energy Research Institute, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Institute (2016) Reinventing fire: China. https://www.rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/OCS_Report_ReinventingFireChina_2016.pdf. Accessed 9 Sep 2019
Fu S (2012) Study on China’s low carbon development technology strategy and policy options based on an energy system model. Renmin University of China, Beijing
Government of Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region (2014) New urbanization plan of Guangxi(2014–2020). http://www.gxdrc.gov.cn/fzgggz/fzgh/gzjl_39778/201408/W020140812638494494496.pdf. Accessed 1 Aug 2019
Government of Henan Province (2014) New urbanization plan of Henan(2014–2020). http://www.henan.gov.cn/zwgk/system/2014/07/30/010487963.shtml. Accessed 1 Aug 2019
Government of Jiangxi Province (2014) New urbanization plan of Jiangxi(2014–2020). http://xxgk.jiangxi.gov.cn/bmgkxx/sfzggw/fzgh/fzgh/201407/t20140729_1051772.htm. Accessed 1 Aug 2019
Government of Jilin Province (2014) New urbanization plan of Jilin(2014–2020). http://www.jl.gov.cn/zjjl/fzgh_47966/201502/t20150205_1933900.html. Accessed 1 Aug 2019
Government of Shandong Province (2014) New urbanization plan of Shandong(2014–2020). http://www.shandong.gov.cn/art/2014/10/27/art_285_6670.html. Accessed 1 Aug 2019
Guan M (2014) Temporal and spatial process: urbanisation driven by rural-urban migration in China, 1949-2010. Int J Migr Resid Mobil 1:50–71. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijmrm.2014.059699
He Z, Xu S, Shen W, Long R, Chen H (2017) Impact of urbanization on energy related CO2 emission at different development levels: regional difference in China based on panel estimation. J Clean Prod 140:1719–1730. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.08.155
Heaps C (2017) Long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) system. Software version: 2017.0.5.0]. Stock. Environ. Inst. Somerville, MA, USA. https://www.energycommunity.org
Jalas M, Juntunen JK (2015) Energy intensive lifestyles: time use, the activity patterns of consumers, and related energy demands in Finland. Ecol Econ 113:51–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.02.016
Jiang K, He C, Dai H, Liu J, Xu X (2018) Emission scenario analysis for China under the global 1.5 °C target. Carbon Manag 9:481–491. https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2018.1477835
Komatsu S, Ha HD, Kaneko S (2013) The effects of internal migration on residential energy consumption and CO2 emissions: a case study in Hanoi. Energy Sustain Dev 17:572–580. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2013.10.002
Kriegler E, DeCian E, Jiang K, Mouratiadou L (2013) RoSE:roadmaps towards sustainable energy futures and climate protection : a synthesis of results from the RoSE project. In: RoSE Proj. Potsdam Inst. Clim. Impact Res. https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/luderer/publications/RoSE_REPORT_310513_ES.pdf. Accessed 8 Feb 2019
Li X (2015) Status and future trend of China’s steel industry. In: China Metall. Ind. Plan. Res. Inst. https://www.metalbulletin.com/events/download.ashx/document/speaker/7476/a0ID000000X0k8UMAR/Presentation. Accessed 5 Aug 2019
Liddle B, Lung S (2010) Age-structure, urbanization, and climate change in developed countries: revisiting STIRPAT for disaggregated population and consumption-related environmental impacts. Popul Environ 31:317–343. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-010-0101-5
Liu J, Chen W, Liu D (2010) China energy service demand projection model. J Tsinghua Univ (Science Technol) 50:481–484. https://doi.org/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2010.03.027
Liu J, Sun Y, Wang K et al (2018) Study on mid- and long-term low carbon development pathway for China’s transport sector. Clim Chang Res 14:513–521. https://doi.org/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.052
Liu J, Wang K, Zou J, Kong Y (2019a) The implications of coal consumption in the power sector for China’s CO2 peaking target. Appl Energy 253:113518. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113518
Liu J, Xiahou Q, Wang K, Zou J (2019b) Study on mid- and long-term low carbon development pathway of China’s industry sector. China Soft Sci 2019:31–41
Liu J, Xiang Q, Wang K et al (2019c) Mid- to long-term low carbon development pathway of China’s building sector. Resour Sci 41:509–520. https://doi.org/10.18402/resci.2019.03.09
Menz T, Welsch H (2012) Population aging and carbon emissions in OECD countries: accounting for life-cycle and cohort effects. Energy Econ 34:842–849. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.016
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (2014) Iron & Steel industry economic performance in 2013. http://www.miit.gov.cn/n1146312/n1146904/n1648356/n1648357/c3059095/content.html. Accessed 3 Jan 2019
National Bureau of Statistics (2018) China energy statistical yearbook 2018. China Statistics Press, Beijing
National Bureau of Statistics (2019) China statistical yearbook 2019. China Statistics Press, Beijing
National Development and Reform Commission (2014) Comprehensive pilot program for national new urbanization. http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/201502/W020150204327302085897.pdf. Accessed 17 Oct 2019
National Development and Reform Commission (2015) The second batch of key points of comprehensive pilot program for national new urbanization. http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/fzgggz/fzgh/zcfg/201511/W020151127368146249324.pdf. Accessed 17 Oct 2019
O’Neill BC, Dalton M, Fuchs R et al (2010) Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 107:17521–17526. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1004581107
O’Neill BC, Ren X, Jiang L, Dalton M (2012) The effect of urbanization on energy use in India and China in the iPETS model. Energy Econ 34:S339–S345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.04.004
O’Neill BC, Kriegler E, Riahi K, Ebi KL, Hallegatte S, Carter TR, Mathur R, van Vuuren DP (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Clim Chang 122:387–400. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2
Pan X, Wang H, Wang L, Chen W (2018) Decarbonization of China’s transportation sector: in light of national mitigation toward the Paris agreement goals. Energy 155:853–864. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.04.144
Qi W, Li G (2020) Residential carbon emission embedded in China’s inter-provincial population migration. Energy Policy 136:111065. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111065
Ru M, Tao S, Smith K, Shen G, Shen H, Huang Y, Chen H, Chen Y, Chen X, Liu J, Li B, Wang X, He C (2015) Direct energy consumption associated emissions by rural-to-urban migrants in Beijing. Environ Sci Technol 49:13708–13715. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b03374
Shi W, Cui Y, Wu Y (2011) Prediction for China’s cement demand. China Build Mater 2011:100–105. https://doi.org/10.16291/j.cnki.zgjc.2011.01.031
State Council (2014a) National new urbanization planning (2014–2020). http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2014-03/16/content_2640075.htm. Accessed 5 Feb 2019
State Council (2014b) Notification on adjustment of city scale classification. http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2014-11/20/content_9225.htm. Accessed 15 Dec 2018
State Council (2014c) Opinions on further promoting the reform of household registration system. http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2014-07/30/content_8944.htm. Accessed 15 Oct 2019
Stephenson J, Newman K, Mayhew S (2010) Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links? J Public Health (Bangkok) 32:150–156. https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdq038
Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (2014) Pathways to deep decarbonization. http://deepdecarbonization.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/DDPP_Digit.pdf. Accessed 8 Feb 2019
Yang Y, Zhao T, Wang Y, Shi Z (2015) Research on impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012. Environ Impact Assess Rev 55:45–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2015.06.007
Yu B, Wei YM, Kei G, Matsuoka Y (2018) Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households. Nat Energy 3:109–118. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-017-0053-4
Zhang X, Niu S, Zhao C, Hu L (2011) The study on household energy consumption and carbon emissions in China’s urbanization. China Soft Sci 2011:65–75
Zhang Q, Xu J, Wang Y, Hasanbeigi A, Zhang W, Lu H, Arens M (2018) Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation in China’s iron and steel industry based on dynamic material flows. Appl Energy 209:251–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.10.084
Zhou D, Dai Y, Yu C, Guo Y (2003) Synthesis report of energy and carbon emissions scenarios for China’s sustainable development. http://www.efchina.org/Attachments/Report/reports-efchina-20061209-6-zh/Fnl_Scenario_CN.pdf. Accessed 20 Mar 2019
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [grant numbers 2019 M650725]; Shenzhen Low Carbon City Big Data Engineering Laboratory (ShenzhenDRC[2017]1089); Discipline Construction Program on Combating Climate Change and Low Carbon Economics of the Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China (ShenzhenDRC[2018]725).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, J., Yin, M., Wang, K. et al. Long-term impacts of urbanization through population migration on China’s energy demand and CO2 emissions. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 25, 1053–1071 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09919-0