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Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty

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Abstract

In this study, an integrated simulation-based allocation modeling system (ISAMS) is developed for identifying water resources management strategies in response to climate change. The ISAMS incorporates global climate models (GCMs), a semi-distributed land use-based runoff process (SLURP) model, and a multistage interval-stochastic programming (MISP) approach within a general framework. The ISAMS can not only handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values but also reveal climate change impacts on water resources allocation under different projections of GCMs. The ISAMS is then applied to the Kaidu-kongque watershed with cold arid characteristics in the Tarim River Basin (the largest inland watershed basin in China) for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that different climate change models corresponding to various projections (e.g., precipitation and temperature) would lead to changed water resources allocation patterns. Variations in water availability and demand due to uncertainties could result in different water allocation targets and shortages. A variety of decision alternatives about water allocations adaptive to climate change are generated under combinations of different global climate models and ecological water release plans. These findings indicate that understanding the uncertainties in water resources system, building adaptive methods for generating sustainable water allocation patterns, and taking actions for mitigating water shortage problems are key adaptation strategies responding to climate change.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Key Research Development Program of China (2016YFA0601502) and the National Natural Sciences Foundation (51379075 and 51520105013). The authors are grateful to the editors and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and helpful suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Sino-Canada Energy and Environmental Research Center, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China

    J. Sun, X. W. Zhuang & S.W. Jin

  2. State Key Laboratory of Water Environment, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Y. P. Li

  3. Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Sask, S4S 7H9, Canada

    Y. P. Li

  4. Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Sask, S4S 0A2, Canada

    G. H. Huang

  5. Canadian Light Source Inc., Saskatoon, SK, S7N 2V3, Canada

    R. F. Feng

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  1. J. Sun
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  2. Y. P. Li
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  3. X. W. Zhuang
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  4. S.W. Jin
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  5. G. H. Huang
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  6. R. F. Feng
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Correspondence to Y. P. Li.

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Sun, J., Li, Y.P., Zhuang, X.W. et al. Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 23, 553–578 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9749-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9749-9

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