Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Forecasting industrial water demand in Huaihe River Basin due to environmental changes

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A framework is proposed for forecasting industrial water demand in the context of climate change, economic growth, and technological development. The framework was tested in five sub-basins of Huaihe River of China, namely Upstream of Huaihe River (UH), Middlestream of Huaihe River (MH), Downstream of Huaihe River (DH), Yishusi River (YSSR), and Coastal River of Shandong Peninsula (CSP) to project future changes in industrial water demand under different environment change scenarios. Results showed that industrial water demand in Huaihe River basin will increase in the range of 10 to 44.6% due to economic development, water-saving technological advances, and climate change. The highest increase was projected by general circulation model (GCM) BCC-CSM1–1 (179.16 × 108 m3) and the lowest by GCM GISS-E2-R (132.4 × 108 m3) in 2020, while the GCM BNU-ESM projected the highest increase (190.57 × 108 m3) and GCM CNRM-CM5 the lowest (160.41 × 108 m3) in 2030. Among the different sub-basins, the highest increase was projected in MH sub-basin where industrial water demand is already very high. On the other hand, the lowest increase in industrial water demand was projected in UH sub-basin. The rapid growth of high water-consuming industries and increased water demand for cooling due to temperature rise are the major causes of the sharp increase in industrial water demand in the basin. The framework developed in the study can be used for reliable forecasting of industrial water demand which in turn can help in selection of an appropriate water management strategy for adaptation to global environmental changes.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Figure 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arnell N, Lloyd-Hughes B (2013) The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios. Clim Chang. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0948-4

    Google Scholar 

  • Averyt K, Fisher J, Huber-Lee A, Lewis A, Macknick J, Madden N, Rogers J, Tellinghuisen S (2011) Freshwater use by U.S. power plants: electricity’s thirst for a precious resource. A report of the Energy and Water in a Warming World initiative. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA

  • Butler D, Memon FA (2006) Water Demand Management. London: IWA Publishing.

  • Deng X, Guneralp B, Zhan J, Su H (2014) Land use impacts on climate. Springer, London

  • Downing TE, Butterfield RE, Edmonds B (2003) Climate change and the demand for water, research report, Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford Office, Oxford, 2003.

  • FICCI (Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry) (2011) Water use in Indian industry survey, September 2011. Water mission: New Delhi

  • Förster H, Lilliestam J (2010) Modeling thermoelectric power generation in view of climate change. Reg Environ Chang 10(4):327–338

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frederick KD (1997) Adapting to climate impacts on the supply and demand for water. Clim Chang 37(1):141–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Global Water Partnership (2015) China’s water resources management challenge: The ‘three red lines’. Technical Focus Paper. Elanders: Sweden

  • Hammond D, Pryce AR (2007) Science report: climate change impacts and water temperature. Report No. SC060017/SR, Environment Agency: Bristol (UK)

  • Horie S, Daigo I, Matsuno Y (2011) Comparison of water footprint for industrial P roducts in Japan, China, and USA. Towards Life Cycle Sustainability Management:154–160

  • HRCC (Huaihe River Conservancy Commission) (1998-2012) Huaihe River water resources bulletin. Huaihe River Conservancy Commission, Bengbu.

  • IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) (2012) 2012 Global Hunger Index, chapter 3: sustainable food security under land, water, and energy stresses. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC

  • Jampanil D, Suttinon P, Seigo N, Koontanakulvong S (2012) Application of input-output table for future water resources management under policy and climate change in Thailand: rayong province case study. Change 27:29

    Google Scholar 

  • Jessberger C, Sindram M, Zimmer M (2011) Global warming induced water-cycle changes and industrial production—a scenario analysis for the upper Danube River basin. J Econ Stat 231(3):415–439

    Google Scholar 

  • Jia SF, Yang H, Zhang SF (2006) Industrial water use Kuznets curve: evidence from industrialized countries and implications for developing countries. J Water Resour Plan Manag 132(3):183–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khan I, Chowdhury H, Alam F, Alam Q, Afrin S (2012) An investigation into the potential impacts of climate change on power generation in Bangladesh. J Sustain Energy E 3:103–110

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim SJ, Kim BS, Jun H (2014). Assessment of future water resources and water scarcity considering the factors of climate change and social–environmental change in Han River basin, Korea. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess DOI: 10.1007/s00477-014-0924-1

  • Koch H, Vögele S (2009) Dynamic modelling of water demand, water availability and adaptation strategies for power plants to global change. Ecol Econ 68(7):2031–2039

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lai WL (2013) Mineral resources development Huaihe River Basin Ecological and Environmental Change Research new road to industrialization (Chinese Edition). Economic Management: Beijing

  • Li J, Ma XC (2014) Econometric analysis of industrial water use efficiency in China. Environ Dev Sustain. doi:10.1007/s10668-014-9601-2

    Google Scholar 

  • Linrterud K, Mideksa TK, Eskeland GS (2011) The impact of climate change on nuclear power supply. Energy J 32(0):1

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Zanga C, Tian S, Liu J, Yang H, Jia S, You L, Liu B, Zhang M (2013) Water conservancy projects in China: achievements, challenges and way forward. Glob Environ Chang 23(3):633–643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luoto TP, Nevalainen L (2013) Long-term water temperature reconstructions from mountain lakes with different catchment and morphometric features. Scientific Reports 3, Article number: 2488 (2013), doi:10.1038/srep02488

  • Mote P. (ed.) et al, (1999) Impacts of Climate Variability and Change: Pacific Northwest, Regional Report for the PNW to the National Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change, JISAO Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Nov.

  • MWR (Ministry of Water Resources) (2015) Water management: use the most stringent system tighten faucet. Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), China. http://english.ahshunyu.com/Article.Asp?pid=156&id=380

  • OECD (2012) The OECD environmental outlook to 2050: the consequences of inaction. OECD and the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Amsterdam

  • Pahl-Wostl C (2007) Transitions towards adaptive management of water facing climate and global change. Water Resour Manag 21(1):49–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pahl-Wostl C, Bhaduri A, Gupta J (2016) Handbook on water security. Edward Elgar: Amsterdam

  • Protopapas AL, Katchamart S, Platonova A (2000) Weather effects on daily water use in New York City. J Hydrol Eng 5(3):332–338

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynaud A (2003) An econometric estimation of industrial water demand in France. Environ Resour Econ 25:213–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rübbelke D, Vögele S (2011) Impacts of climate change on European critical infrastructures: the case of the power sector. Environ Sci Pol 14(1):53–63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sajil Kumar PJ, Davis Delson P, Vernon JG, James EJ (2013) A linear regression model (LRM) for groundwater chemistry in and around the Vaniyambadi industrial area, Tamil Nadu. India Chin J Geochem 32:019–026

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tarnacki, K. (2013). Evaluating industrial water saving and water management options in order to mitigate water stress. Mainz, G.

  • Thomson AM, Calvin K, Smith SJ, Kyle GP, Volke A, Patel P, Delgado-Arias S, Bond_Lamberty B, Wise MA, Clarke LE, Edmonds JA D (2011) RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Chang 109:77–94.

  • UNESCO (2014) The United Nations World Water Development Report 2014: Water and Energy. Paris, UNESCO

  • United Nations (2006) Good practices on strategic planning and management of water resources in Asia and the Pacific. Water Resources Series No. 85. United Nationa Publication: Thailand

  • Wada Y, Wisser D, Bierkens MFP (2014) Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources. Earth System Dynamics 5(1):15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang H (2011) The key technical support for implementing the most strict water resources management system. China Water Resources 6:28–30 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Gao J, Shahid S, Xia X-H, Geng Z, Tang L (2017b) The new concept of water resources management in China: ensuring water security in changing environment. Environment,Development and Sustainability,1–13, doi: 10.1007/s10668-017-9918-8.

  • Wang XJ, Zhang JY, Shahid S, Guan ES, Wu YX, Gao J, He RM (2016a) Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 21(1):81–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang XJ, Zhang JY, Shahid S, Guan ES, Wu YX, Gao J, He RM (2016b) Impact of climate change on regional irrigation water demand in Baojixia irrigation district of China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 21(2):233–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Shahid S, He R-M, Xia X-H, Mou X-L (2015a) Potential impact of climate change on future water demand in Yulin city, Northwest China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 20(1):1–19. doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9476-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Shahid S, Oyang R-L, Guan T-S, Xue J-G, Zhang X (2016c) Impacts of climate variability and changes on domestic water use in the Yellow River Basin of China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang:1–14. doi:10.1007/s11027-015-9689-1

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Shahid S, Xie W,Du C-Y,Shang X-C,Zhang X (2017a),Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics. Environment,Development and Sustainability,1–14, doi: 10.1007/s10668-017-9919-7.

  • Wang X-J, Zhang J-Y, Yang Z-F, Shahid S, He R-M, Xia X-H, Liu H-W (2015b) Historic water consumptions and future management strategies for Haihe River basin of Northern China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 20(3):371–387

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Water Resources Group (2009) Charting our water future: economic frameworks to inform decision-making. The 2030 Water Resources Group. (The Barilla Group, The Coca-Cola Company, The International Finance Corporation, McKinsey & Company, Nestlé S.A., New Holland Agriculture, SABMiller plc, Standard Chartered Bank, and Syngenta AG.)

  • WWAP (World Water Assessment Programme) (2012) The United Nations World Water Development Report 4: Managing Water under Uncertainty and Risk. Paris, UNESCO.

  • Zachariadis T (2010) Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030: the potential impact of climate change. Energy Policy 38(2):744–750

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51309155, 41330854), Strategic Consulting Projects of Chinese Academy of Engineering (NO: 2016-ZD-08-05-02), China water resource fee funded project (No. 126302001000150001), National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2010CB951104 and 2010CB951103), Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research) (NO: IWHR-SKL-201515) and the Special Fund of State Key Laboratory of China (No. Y515023 and Y513004) for providing financial support for this research. We are also thankful to anonymous reviewers and editors for their helpful comments and suggestions.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China

    Xiao-jun Wang & Jian-yun Zhang

  2. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, 210029, China

    Xiao-jun Wang & Jian-yun Zhang

  3. State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Xiao-jun Wang

  4. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bahru, 81310, Malaysia

    Shamsuddin Shahid

  5. Department of Water Resources, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing, 100053, China

    Shou-hai Bi

  6. Urban Water Balance, Climate and Water Division, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, 3008, Australia

    Amgad Elmahdi

  7. Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, 211800, China

    Chuan-hua Liao

  8. Huaihe River Water Resources Commission, Beijing, 233001, China

    You-de Li

Authors
  1. Xiao-jun Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jian-yun Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Shamsuddin Shahid
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Shou-hai Bi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Amgad Elmahdi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Chuan-hua Liao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. You-de Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xiao-jun Wang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wang, Xj., Zhang, Jy., Shahid, S. et al. Forecasting industrial water demand in Huaihe River Basin due to environmental changes. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 23, 469–483 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9744-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9744-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation