Abstract
Despite the declining trends in total energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy intensity, and emission intensity over the past two decades, Romania still emits more greenhouse gas per unit of output than many other members of the European Union. The country is looking for further greening of its energy supply system to achieve the clean energy and climate change mitigation goals included in the European Union’s 2030 target and 2050 Roadmap. Using an energy supply optimization model, TIMES, this study develops energy supply mixes for Romania under a baseline scenario that satisfies the European Union’s current energy and climate targets for 2020, a green scenario that satisfies the European Union’s 2030 energy and climate targets, and a super green scenario that satisfies the European Union’s prospective 2050 energy road map. The study finds that although Romania could achieve the green scenario at a moderate cost, it would be challenging and costly to achieve the super green scenario.
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Notes
In 2013, non-fossil energy sources contributed 26% of total primary energy supply and 49% of total power generation in Romania (IEA 2015). These numbers indicate that Romania already has a relatively low carbon energy supply system as compared to many EU member states.
Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources. http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/
As set out in the EU’s 2030 Climate and Energy Policy Framework approved in October 2014 and confirmed in the EU’s INDC to the UNFCCC in 2015.
The European Union has laid out a vision for mitigation through 2050 in a “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” was published in March 2011 by the European Commission.
Please see Jorgensen and Shkaratan (2016) for detailed information.
For the projection of end-use energy demand for Romania, which is used exogenously in this study, please refer to Malla and Timilsina (2016).
Our analysis like any other long-term electricity generation plans, is based on least cost expansion satisfying resources and environmental constraints. While the results from this analysis could provide important insight for the development of a power sector strategy, it is not itself an electricity sector development strategy, which would consider several factors in addition to economic factors. While nuclear is not found economically attractive for the baseline in this analysis, the government could still consider nuclear from other consideration, such as security of supply.
While the model conducts a detailed simulation for the power sector and combined heat and power and estimates investment need for generating electricity and district heat, it treats other energy commodities as purchased from the market. Thus, it does not include investment needed for coal/lignite mining or natural gas pipelines. Since the study is for low carbon development and most low carbon options fall under the power sector, it does not underestimate the investment needed in low carbon scenarios.
At a 5% discount rate. The discount rate was selected as a mid-range social discount rate (the typically used social discount rates range from 4 to 6%).
In present value terms using a 5% discount rate.
It should not be interpreted that the additional €3 billion causes additional 10% emission reduction from the base case in 2050. The investment is for 35 years (2015–2050) and it would cause certain reductions in emissions in all years during the 2015–2050 period. The comparison of cumulative investment with a single year’s emission reduction would be misleading and therefore should be avoided.
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Acknowledgements
This study builds on the work carried out under the Advisory Services Agreement on Romania Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program signed between the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change and the World Bank. The authors are thankful to Amit Kanudia for providing research assistance to run the TIMES model for Romania. We are also grateful to Oluwafemi Faleye for his research assistantship in collecting data and background materials. The study benefitted from several rounds of comments from reviewers including Kari J. Nyman, Morgan Bazilian, Maria Shkaratan, Jian Xie, Kulsum Ahmed, Ranjit Lamech, Mike Toman, the staffs of the Ministry of Environment and Forests and the Ministry of Economy, Commerce and Business Environment in Romania, and participants of various workshops organized in Bucharest during the course of this study. We acknowledge the financial support from the European Union, Romanian Government and the World Bank.
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Erika Jorgensen now retired
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Timilsina, G., Jorgensen, E. The economics of greening Romania’s energy supply system. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 23, 123–144 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-016-9733-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-016-9733-9