Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effects at global and regional levels. For this purpose, the techno-economic TIAM-WORLD (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) and the general equilibrium GEMINI-E3 (General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and Environment) models are coupled with a climate model, PLASIM-ENTS (Planet-Simulator- Efficient Numerical Terrestrial Scheme). The key results are as follows. At the global level, the climate feedback induced by adaptation of the energy system to heating and cooling is found to be insignificant, partly because heating and cooling-induced changes compensate and partly because they represent a limited share of total final energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at regional levels, more particularly in terms of additional power capacity required to satisfy additional cooling services, resulting in increases in electricity prices. In terms of macro-economic impacts, welfare gains and losses are associated more with changes in energy exports and imports than with changes in energy consumption for heating and cooling. The rebound effect appears to be non-negligible. To conclude, the coupling of models of different nature was successful and showed that the energy and economic impacts of climate change on heating and cooling remain small at the global level, but changes in energy needs will be visible at more local scale.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aaheim A, Amundsen H, Dokken T, Ericson T, Wei T (2009) A macroeconomic assessment of impacts and adaptation to climate change in Europe. CICERO Report 2009:06

  • Aebischer B, Henderson G, Jakob M, Catenazzi G (2007) Impact of climate change on thermal comfort, heating and cooling energy demand in Europe. ECEEE summer study, panel 5, energy efficient buildings, pp 859–870

  • Akpinar-Ferrand E, Singh A (2010) Modeling increased demand of energy for air conditioners and consequent CO2 emissions to minimize health risks due to climate change in India. Environ Sci Pol 13(8):702–712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Babonneau F, Vielle M, Haurie A, Loulou R (2012) Combining stochastic optimization and Monte-Carlo simulation to deal with uncertainties in climate policy assessment. Environ Model Assess 17(1):51–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bernard A, Vielle M (2008) GEMINI-E3, a general equilibrium model of international national interactions between economy, energy and the environment. CMS 5(3):173–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bosello R, Cian E, Roson R (2007) Climate change, energy demand and market power in a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Working paper 71.07, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

  • Cian E, Lanzi E, Roson R (2007) The impact of temperature change on energy demand: a dynamic panel analysis. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Working paper 46.07

  • CIESIN and CIAT (2005) Gridded population of the world, version 3 (GPWv3). Technical report, Center for international earth information network (CIESIN) and Centro internacional de agricultura tropical (CIAT). Palisades, NY: socioeconomic data and applications center (SEDAC), Columbia University

  • Craig R (2011) Energy system impact. Technical report, FSU College of Law, Public Law Research Paper No. 503

  • Department of Economic United Nations and Population Division Social Affairs (2011) World population prospects: the 2010 revision. Technical report

  • Dimitropoulos J (2007) Energy productivity improvements and the rebound effect: an overview of the state of knowledge. Energy Pol 35(12):6354–6363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dolinar M, Vidrih B, Kajfez̆-Bogataj L, Medved S (2010) Predicted changes in energy demands for heating and cooling due to climate change. Phys Chem Earth A/B/C 35(12):100–106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duerinck J, Renders N, Schoeters K (2008) Assessment and improvement of methodologies used for greenhouse gas projection. Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek

  • Ebinger J, Vergara W (2011) Climate impacts on energy systems - key issues for energy sector adaptation. The international bank for reconstruction and development/the world bank

  • Eboli F, Parrado R, Roson R (2010) Climate-change feedback on economic growth: explorations with a dynamic general equilibrium model. Environ Dev Econ 5(15):515–533

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraedrich K, Jansen H, Kirk E, Luksch U, Lunkeit F (2005) The planet simulator: towards a user friendly model. Meteorol Z 14(3):299–304

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ganguly D, Rasch P, Wang H, Yoon J (2012) Climate response of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols. J Geophys Res:117

  • Haberl H, Erb K, Krausmann F, Bondeau A, Lauk C, Mller C, Plutzar C, Steinberger J (2011) Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields. Biomass Bioenergy 35(12):4753–4769

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamududu B, Killingtveit A (2012) Assessing climate change impacts on global hydropower. Energies 5:305–322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harrison J, Horridge M, Pearson K (2000) Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks. Comput Econ 15:227–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holden PB, Edwards NR (2010) Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling. Geophys Res Lett 37(21)

  • Holden PB, Edwards NR, Garthwaite PH, Fraedrich K, Lunkeit F, Kirk E, Labriet M, Kanudia A, Babonneau F (2013) PLASIM-ENTSem: a spatiotemporal emulator of future climate for impacts assessment. Geosci Model Dev Discuss 6:3349–3380

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IEA (2013) Energy statistics for OECD and Non-OECD countries. Available via http://data.iea.org

  • Isaac M, van Vuuren D (2009) Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. Energy Pol 37(2):507–521

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Labriet M, Kanudia A, Loulou R (2012) Climate mitigation under an uncertain technology future: a TIAM-world analysis. Energy Econ, 34, Supplement 3:S366–S377

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lehner B, Czisch G, Vassolo S (2005) The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis. Energy Pol 33(7):839–855

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Linnerud K, Mideksa T, Eskeland G (2011) The impact of climate change on nuclear power supply. Energy J 32:149–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loulou R (2008) ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model part II: mathematical formulation. CMS 5:7–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loulou R, Labriet M (2008) ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model part I: model structure. CMS 5:41–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McNeil M, Letschert V (2008) Future air conditioning energy consumption in developing countries and what can be done about it: the potential of efficiency in the residential sector. Technical report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

  • Mideksa T, Kallbekken S (2010) The impact of climate change on the electricity market: a review. Energy Pol 38(7):3579–3585

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mima S, Criqui P (2009) Assessment of the impacts under future climate change on the energy systems with the poles model. In: International energy workshop 17-19 June, 2009. Fondazione Giorgio Cini, Italy

  • Narayanan B, Aguiar A, McDougall R (2012) Global trade, assistance, and production: the GTAP 8 data base. Center for global trade analysis, Purdue University, 2012

  • Paltsev S (2001) The Kyoto protocol: regional and sectoral contributions to the carbon leakage. Energy J 22(4):53–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petrick S, Rehdanz K, Tol RSJ (2010) The impact of temperature changes on residential energy consumption. Kiel working paper no. 1618, Kiel institute for the world economy

  • Rübbelke D, Vögele S (2011) Impacts of climate change on european critical infrastructures: the case of the power sector. Environ Sci Pol 14(1):53–63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schaeffer R, Szklo A, de Lucena A, Borba B, Nogueira L, Fleming F, Troccoli A, Harrison M, Boulahya M (2012) Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: a review. Energy 38(1):1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schoenau G, Kehrig R (1990) Method for calculating degree-days to any base temperature. Energy Build 14(4):299–302

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas B, Azevedo I (2013) Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for U.S. households with input-output analsis part 1: theoretical framework. Ecol Econ 86:199–210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Vuuren D, Edmonds D, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard D, Hurtt G, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith S, Rose S (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Chang 109:5–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Chen D, Ren Z (2010) Assessment of climate change impact on residential building heating and cooling energy requirement in Australia. Build Environ 45(7):1663–1682

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ward I (2008) Will global warming reduce the carbon emissions of the Yorkshire Humber Region’s domestic building stock a scoping study. Energy Build 40(6):998–1003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Warren R, de la Nava Santos S, Arnell NW, Bane M, Barker T, Barton C, Ford R, Fssel H-M, Hanking Robin KS, Klein R, Linstead C, Kohler J, Mitchell TD, Osborn TJ, Pan H, Raper SCB, Riley G, Schellnhber HJ, Winne S, Anderson D (2008) Development and illustrative outputs of the community integrated assessment system (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change. Environ Model Softw 23(5):592–610

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Washida T (2004) Economy-wide model of rebound effect for environmental efficiency. In: International workshop on sustainable consumption, University of Leeds

  • Wilbanks TJ, Romero Lankao P, Bao M, Berkhout F, Cairncross S, Ceron J-P, Kapshe M, Muir-Wood R, Zapata-Marti R (2007a) Industry, settlement and society. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds)Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 357–390

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilbanks TJ, Bhatt V, Bilello DE, Bull SR, Ekmann J, Horak WC, Huang YJ, Levine MD, Sale MJ, Schmalzer DK, Scott MJ (2007b) Effects of climate change on energy production and use in the United States. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, DC, pp 160

  • Williamson M, Lenton T, Shepherd J, Edwards NR (2006) An efficient numerical terrestrial scheme (ENTS) for earth system modelling. Ecol Model 198(34):362–374

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The research leading to these results has received funding from the EU Seventh Framework Programme (ERMITAGE FP7/2007-2013) under Grant Agreement no265170. We would like to thank Dr. Philomena Bacon for her comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank the participants of Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) Annual Congress 2013, Neuchatel, Switzerland and of the International Energy Workshop 2013, Paris, France for their comments and suggestions.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Eneris Environment Energy Consultants, Madrid, Spain

    Maryse Labriet

  2. REME, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

    Santosh R. Joshi, Marc Vielle & Frédéric Babonneau

  3. ORDECSYS SARL, Chêne Bougeries, Switzerland

    Frédéric Babonneau

  4. Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, Open University, Milton Keynes, UK

    Philip B. Holden & Neil R. Edwards

  5. KanORS-EMR, Noida, India

    Amit Kanudia

  6. Kanlo, Lyon, France

    Richard Loulou

Authors
  1. Maryse Labriet
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Santosh R. Joshi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Marc Vielle
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Philip B. Holden
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Neil R. Edwards
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Amit Kanudia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Richard Loulou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Frédéric Babonneau
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Maryse Labriet.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Labriet, M., Joshi, S.R., Vielle, M. et al. Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 20, 1111–1136 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9522-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9522-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation