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Climate adaptation planning in practice: an evaluation of adaptation plans from three developed nations

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Abstract

Formal planning for climate change adaptation is emerging rapidly at a range of geo-political scales. This first generation of adaptation plans provides useful information regarding how institutions are framing the issue of adaptation and the range of processes that are recognized as being part of an adaptation response. To better understand adaptation planning among developed nations, a set of 57 adaptation plans from Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States was evaluated against a suite of 19 planning processes identified from existing guidance instruments for adaptation planning. Total scores among evaluated plans ranged from 16% of the maximum possible score to 61%, with an average of 37%. These results suggest adaptation plans are largely under-developed. Critical weaknesses in adaptation planning are related to limited consideration for non-climatic factors as well as neglect for issues of adaptive capacity including entitlements to various forms of capital needed for effective adaptation. Such gaps in planning suggest there are opportunities for institutions to make better use of existing guidance for adaptation planning and the need to consider the broader governance context in which adaptation will occur. In addition, the adaptation options prescribed by adaptation plans reflect a preferential bias toward low-risk capacity-building (72% of identified options) over the delivery of specific actions to reduce vulnerability. To the extent these findings are representative of the state of developed nation adaptation planning, there appear to be significant deficiencies in climate change preparedness, even among those nations often assumed to have the greatest adaptive capacity.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported through a Julius Career Award granted to the lead author by the CSIRO as well as support from the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship. The authors also acknowledge the assistance of William Perkins of the U.S Environmental Protection Agency and Dr. Suraje Dessai of the University of Exeter.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, One Bethel Valley Road, PO Box 2008, MS-6301, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831-6253, USA

    Benjamin L. Preston

  2. IMS Consulting, Bristol, UK

    Richard M. Westaway

  3. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

    Emma J. Yuen

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  1. Benjamin L. Preston
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  2. Richard M. Westaway
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  3. Emma J. Yuen
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Correspondence to Benjamin L. Preston.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 7 The adaptation plans evaluated in this work, sorted by date published or launched
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Table 8 The scoring rules developed for evaluating to what extent each adaptation criterion is met by the adaptation plans
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Preston, B.L., Westaway, R.M. & Yuen, E.J. Climate adaptation planning in practice: an evaluation of adaptation plans from three developed nations. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 16, 407–438 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-010-9270-x

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