A new post-Kyoto climate regime based on per-capita cumulative CO2-emission rights—rationale, architecture and quantitative assessment of the implication for the CO2-emissions from China, India and the Annex-I countries by 2050

  • Andreas OberheitmannEmail author
Original Article


Climate change is one of the most severe global problems in the 21st century. Main drivers are the combustion of fossil fuels, the emissions of industrial gases, emissions from agricultural sites and animal husbandry as well as deforestation. A new cooperative climate regime is necessary to meet the World’s energy and environmental problems against the background of China’s and India’s energy consumption growth. For the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol after 2012, a successor regime has to be agreed on. The current approaches, however, have a common weakness. They at the same time (a) do not acknowledge the historical responsibilities of the industrialized countries for the historical greenhouse gas emissions and the responsibility of developing countries for a large fraction of the current future emissions, and (b) do not provide for a fair distribution of emission rights. Against this background, this article aims at forecasting China’s and India's CO2-emissions up to 2050 and developing a new suggestion for a post Kyoto climate regime based on a cumulated per capita CO2-emission rights taking the weaknesses of the currently discussed post Kyoto approaches into account.


Climate change New post Kyoto regime Cumulated per capita CO2 emission rights China India CO2-emission forecast 2050 



Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


Parts per million


Major Economies Forum


United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change


Greenhouse gases


Carbon capture and storage


Conference of the Parties


Carbon dioxide




Nitrous oxide






Sulphur hexafluoride




Ordinary least square


Augmented Dickey and Fuller (test)


Purchasing Power Parities


Adjusted correlation coefficient


Durbin–Watson test value


Gross Domestic Product



The author would like to thank Jan Steckel, Christian Flachsland, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler and Ottmar Edenhofer from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) for their valuable information and comments.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Research Center for International Environmental Policy (RCIEP)Tsinghua UniversityBeijingChina
  2. 2.Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für WirtschaftsforschungEssenGemany
  3. 3.Integrated Expert Centrum für Internationale Migation und Entwicklung (CIM)FrankfurtGemany

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