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Carbon emissions from land-use change: an analysis of causal factors in Chiapas, Mexico

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Abstract

This study examines the correlation between deforestation, carbon dioxide emissions and potential causal factors of land-use change within an area of 2.7 million ha in Chiapas, southern Mexico between 1975 and 1996. Digitized land-use maps and interpreted satellite images were used to quantify land-use changes. Geo-referenced databases of population and digitized maps of roads and topography were used to determine which factors could be used to explain observed changes in land-use. The study analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions during this period and two types of possible causal factors: “predisposing” factors that determine the susceptibility of a particular area of forest to change (slope, distance to agriculture and roads, land tenure) and “driving” factors representing the pressures for change (population density, poverty). The correlated factors were combined in risk matrices, which show the proportion of vulnerable carbon stocks lost in areas with defined social, economic and environmental characteristics. Such matrices could be used to predict future deforestation rates and provide a verifiable evidence-base for defining baseline carbon emissions for forest conservation projects. Based on the results of the analysis, two matrices were constructed, using population density as the single most important driving factor and distance from roads and distance from agriculture as the two alternatives for the predisposing factors of deforestation.

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Acknowledgements

This publication is an output from a research project funded by the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID) for the benefit of developing countries. The views expressed are not necessarily those of DFID. Project R7274 Forestry Research Programme.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR), Unidad San Cristóbal de las Casas, A.P. 63, C. P. 29200, San Cristóbal de las Casas, Chiapas, Mexico

    M. A. Castillo-Santiago

  2. Greenergy Carbon Partners & ECCM, 18, Liberton Brae, Edinburgh, EH16 6AE, Scotland

    A. Hellier & R. Tipper

  3. ECOSUR, Unidad Villahermosa, A.P. 1042, C. P. 86031, Adm de correos Tabasco 2000, Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico

    B. H. J. de Jong

Authors
  1. M. A. Castillo-Santiago
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  2. A. Hellier
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  3. R. Tipper
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  4. B. H. J. de Jong
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to B. H. J. de Jong.

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Castillo-Santiago, M.A., Hellier, A., Tipper, R. et al. Carbon emissions from land-use change: an analysis of causal factors in Chiapas, Mexico. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 12, 1213–1235 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-006-9060-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-006-9060-7

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