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Future transitions from a conifer to a deciduous-dominated landscape are accelerated by greater wildfire activity and climate change in interior Alaska

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Abstract

Context

In interior Alaska, increasing wildfire activity associated with climate change is projected to continue, potentially altering regional forest composition. Conifers are emblematic of boreal forest; however, greater frequency and severity of wildfires has been found to favor broadleaf-deciduous species in numerous studies.

Objectives

This study examines potential shifts in forest type in interior Alaska and how shifts may be impacted by recurring wildfires under future climate change.

Methods

A spatially-explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, was used to simulate forest succession and wildfire over a 380,400-hectare landscape under historic and future (RCP 8.5) climate. Wildfire was modeled using the SCRPPLE fire extension and vegetation growth, belowground carbon, hydrologic, and permafrost dynamics were modeled with the DGS succession extension. The relative importance of drivers of forest type change away from black spruce was quantified using random forest models for areas on the landscape experiencing different numbers of wildfires.

Results

Greater frequencies of fire activity were associated with shifts in conifer-dominant areas to broadleaf-deciduous, which climate change accelerated. Vegetation transitions were most strongly influenced by percent tree mortality from the most recent wildfire. Starting deciduous fraction and proximity of mature black spruce to a site pre-fire were also influential, indicating pre-fire composition and context modified the effect of vegetation shifts.

Conclusions

These results underscore how shifts in forest type may occur in a nonlinear manner in this region as the landscape experiences pressure from climate change and forests are subject to complex interactions between wildfire, climate, belowground processes, and the arrangement of forest communities.

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Data availability

The datasets used to develop model inputs are cited within the manuscript and are available in the public domain. DGS model inputs for this study are available in the LANDIS-II-Foundation repository at: https://github.com/LANDIS-II-Foundation/Project-Alaska-Reburns.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Science Foundation Award 1737706, and by the University of Oregon Department of Geography Rippey Dissertation Writing Grant. We thank Dr. Robert Scheller and Dr. John McNabb for their work converting code from the Damm-MCNiP and SHAW models to C# so they could be coupled into the DGS modeling framework. We thank Dr. Zachary Robbins for his help and advice on parameterizing the SCRPPLE extension to LANDIS-II. We are also grateful to Dr. Lucas Silva, Dr. Daniel Gavin, and Dr. Joshua Roering for their review of an early version of this work and feedback on the study design and results. We also thank CyVerse for use of their cloud computing resources (NSF Award DBI-1743442) which we used to run simulations and to Dr. Tyson Swetnam for his help in containerizing LANDIS-II and integrating the model into the CyVerse Discovery Environment. Lastly, we recognize the Bonanza Creek LTER (NSF Award DEB-1636476), which provided field data used in the parameterization of the DGS model. We also appreciate the feedback from two anonymous reviewers, whose input improved the clarity and presentation of results from the study.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Science Foundation Award 1737706, and by the University of Oregon Department of Geography Rippey Dissertation Writing Grant.

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  1. Shelby A. Weiss

    Present address: The National Great Rivers Research and Education Center, 1 Confluence Way, East Alton, IL, 62024, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Oregon, 1251 University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA

    Shelby A. Weiss & Melissa S. Lucash

  2. Hydrologic Sciences and Engineering Program, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St, Golden, CO, 80401, USA

    Adrienne M. Marshall

  3. Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, 2801 Sharon Turnpike, Millbrook, NY, 12545, USA

    Katherine R. Hayes

  4. Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2156 Koyukuk Drive, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA

    Dmitry J. Nicolsky

  5. Environmental Defense Fund, 2060 Broadway St, Ste 300, Boulder, CO, 80302, USA

    Brian Buma

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Contributions

SW: primary author of the manuscript; contributed to study design; parameterized and calibrated the DGS and SCRPPLE extensions, and was the primary contributor to the analysis. AM: provided parameters for SHAW and evaluated model performance of the SHAW component of DGS. KH: provided field validation data and feedback on validating vegetation response to reburns within the simulated landscape. DN: provided parameters for GIPL and evaluated model performance of the GIPL component of DGS. BB: contributed to the original study proposal and design; provided field data and feedback on vegetation inputs and validation. ML: principal investigator on original study proposal; contributed to study design and led DGS model development; provided parameters for the Damm-MCNiP module and evaluated model performance. All authors contributed to editing the paper and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Shelby A. Weiss.

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Weiss, S.A., Marshall, A.M., Hayes, K.R. et al. Future transitions from a conifer to a deciduous-dominated landscape are accelerated by greater wildfire activity and climate change in interior Alaska. Landsc Ecol 38, 2569–2589 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-023-01733-8

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