Skip to main content

Spatial and temporal dynamics of habitat availability and stability for a critically endangered arboreal marsupial: implications for conservation planning in a fire-prone landscape

Landscape Ecology volume 35, pages 1553–1570 (2020)Cite this article

Abstract

Context

Effective conservation planning for species depends on vegetation models that can capture the dynamics of habitat elements across both spatial and temporal domains. Incorporating these dynamics at landscape scales is essential for understanding the impact of natural disturbance, management, and climate change on habitat availability and stability on fauna.

Objectives

To explore the impact of resource availability, wildfire, forest management (timber harvesting and planned burning), and climate change on the habitat of the critically endangered Leadbeater’s possum (LBP; Gymnobelideus leadbeateri McCoy) with the goal of understanding the importance of these factors on future habitat availability.

Methods

We used a spatially explicit landscape-simulation model, LANDIS-II, linked to habitat suitability and patch modelling, to identify quantity, configuration, and temporal stability of habitat for LBP. We used boosted regression trees and general additive modelling to explore the importance of management and disturbance factors on future LBP habitat availability.

Results

Wildfire was the main factor determining all habitat components for LBP, both alone and in interaction with climate change and forest management. We identified stable habitat patches that will likely persist under future conditions, and that might be prioritised for conservation in a dynamic landscape.

Conclusions

We highlight how the current reserve network could be augmented to improve the future conservation status of LBP. Our approach provides conservation planners with a spatially and temporally explicit framework for incorporating the key dynamic processes that are typically omitted in conservation planning.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

References

  • Baker PJ, Spring D, Nitschke CR, Trouvé R (2017) Appendix A consultant’s report in victorian environmental assessment council: fibre and wood supply assessment report. State of Victoria, Victorian Environmental Assessment Council, Melbourne

    Google Scholar 

  • Blair D, Lindenmayer DB, McBurney L (2018) Failing to conserve Leadbeater’s possum and its mountain ash forest habitat. Aust Zool 39:443–448

    Google Scholar 

  • Boutin S, Hebert D (2002) Landscape ecology and forest management: developing an effective partnership. Ecol Appl 12:390–397

    Google Scholar 

  • Burgman M, Elith J, Gorrod E, Wintle B (2007) Tools for conserving managing individual plant species in dynamic landscapes. In: Lindenmayer DB, Hobbs RJ (eds) Managing and designing landscapes for conservation: moving from perspectives to principles. Blackwell Publishing, Oxford, pp 330–342

    Google Scholar 

  • Carroll C (2010) Role of climatic niche models in focal-species-based conservation planning: assessing potential effects of climate change on Northern Spotted Owl in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Biol Conserv 143:1432–1437

    Google Scholar 

  • Carvalho SB, Brito JC, Crespo EG, Watts ME, Possingham HP (2011) Conservation planning under climate change: toward accounting for uncertainty in predicted species distributions to increase confidence in conservation investments in space and time. Biol Conserv 144:2020–2030

    Google Scholar 

  • Dymond CC, Beukema S, Nitschke CR, Coates KD, Scheller RM (2016) Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change. Biogeosciences 13:1933–1947

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Elith J, Leathwick JR, Hastie T (2008) A working guide to boosted regression trees. J Anim Ecol 77:802–813

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Fedrigo M, Stewart S, Kasel S, Levchenko V, Trouvé R, Nitschke CR (2019) Radiocarbon dating informs tree fern population dynamics and disturbance history of temperate forests in south-east Australia. Radiocarbon 61:445–460

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Fordyce A, Hradsky BA, Ritchie EG, Di Stefano J (2016) Fire affects microhabitat selection, movement patterns, and body condition of an Australian rodent (Rattus fuscipes). J Mammal 97:102–111

    Google Scholar 

  • Fox JC, Hamilton F, Occhipinti S (2009) Tree hollow incidence in Victorian state forests. Austral For 72:39–48

    Google Scholar 

  • Gordon CE, Price OF, Tasker EM, Denham AJ (2017) Acacia shrubs respond positively to high severity wildfire: implications for conservation and fuel hazard management. Sci Tot Environ 575:858–868

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Groves CR, Game ET, Anderson MG, Cross M, Enquist C, Ferdaña Z, Girvetz E, Gondor A, Hall KR, Higgins J, Marshall R, Poper K, Schill S, Shafer SL (2012) Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning. Biodivers Conser 21:1651–1671

    Google Scholar 

  • Gustafson EJ, De Bruijn AMG, Pangle RE, Limousin J-M, McDowell NG, Pockman WT, Sturtevant BR, Muss JD, Kubiske ME (2015) Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change. Glob Change Biol 21:843–856

    Google Scholar 

  • Harley D (2016) An overview of actions to conserve Leadbeater’s Possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri). Vict Nat 133:85–97

    Google Scholar 

  • Hijmans RJ, Phillips S, Leathwick J, Elith J (2013) Dismo: species distribution modeling with R. R package’dismo’, version 1.0-12

  • Jewitt D, Erasmus BFN, Goodman PS, O’Connor TG, Hargrove WW, Maddalena DM, Witkowski ETF (2015) Climate-induced change of environmentally defined floristic domains: a conservation based vulnerability framework. Appl Geogr 63:33–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Kennedy RSH, Wimberley MC (2009) Historical fire and vegetation dynamics in dry forests of the interior Pacific Northwest, USA, and relationships to Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat conservation. For Ecol Manag 258:554–566

    Google Scholar 

  • King AW (1997) Hierarchy theory: a guide to system structure for wildlife biologists. In: Bissonette JA (ed) Wildlife and landscape ecology. Springer-Verlag, New York, pp 185–212

    Google Scholar 

  • Larson MA, Thompson FR III, Millspaugh JJ, Dijak WD, Shifley SR (2004) Linking population viability, habitat suitability, and landscape simulation models for conservation planning. Ecol Model 180:103–118

    Google Scholar 

  • Leroux SJ, Schmiegelow FKA, Cumming SG, Lessard RB, Nagy J (2007) Accounting for system dynamics in reserve design. Ecol Appl 17:1954–1966

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Levin N, Watson JEM, Joseph LN, Grantham HS, Hadar L, Apel N, Perevolotsky A, DeMalach N, Possingham HP, Kark S (2013) A framework for systematic conservation planning and management of Mediterranean landscapes. Biol Conserv 158:371–383

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB (2000) Factors at multiple scales affecting distribution patterns and its implications for animal conservation—Leadbeater’s possum as a case study. Biodivers Conserv 9:15–35

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Blanchard W, Blair D, McBurney L, Banks SC (2016) Environmental and human drivers of large old tree abundance in Australian wet forests. For Ecol Manag 372:226–235

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Blanchard W, Blair D, McBurney L, Banks SC (2017) Relationships between tree size and occupancy by cavity-dependent arboreal marsupials. For Ecol Manag 391:221–229

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Blanchard W, McBurney L, Blair D, Banks SC, Driscoll D, Smith AL, Gill AM (2013) Fire severity and landscape context effects on arboreal marsupials. Biol Conserv 167:137–148

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Cunningham RB, Donnelly CF (1997) Tree decline and collapse in Australian forests: implications for arboreal marsupials. Ecol Appl 7:625–641

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Cunningham RB, Tanton MT, Nix NA, Smith AP (1991a) The conservation of arboreal marsupials in the montane ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria, south-east Australia: III. The habitat requirements of Leadbeater’s possum Gymnobelideus leadbeateri and models of the diversity and abundance of arboreal marsupials. Biol Conserv 56:295–315

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Cunningham RB, Tanton MT, Smith AP, Nix HA (1991b) Characteristics of hollow-bearing trees occupied by arboreal marsupials in the montane ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria, south-east Australia. For Ecol Manag 40:289–308

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Hobbs RJ, Likens GE, Krebs CJ, Banks SC (2011) Newly discovered landscape traps produce regime shifts in wet forests. P Natl Acad Sci USA 108:15887–15891

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Possingham HP (1995a) Modelling the viability of metapopulations of the endangered Leadbeater’s possum in southeastern Australia. Biodivers Conserv 4:984–1018

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Possingham HP (1995b) Modelling the impacts of wildfire on the viability of metapopulations of the endangered Australian species of arboreal marsupial, Leadbeater’s possum. For Ecol Manag 74:197–222

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Possingham HP (1995c) The conservation of arboreal marsupials in the montane ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria, South-eastern Australia – VII. Modelling the persistance of Leadbeater’s possum in response to modified timber harvesting practices. Biol Conserv 73:239–257

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Sato C (2018) Hidden collapse is driven by fire and logging in a socioecological forest ecosystem. P Natl Acad Sci USA 115:5181–5186

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Wood J, McBurney L, Blair D, Banks SC (2015) Single large versus several small: the SLOSS debate in the context of bird responses to a variable retention logging experiment. For Ecol Manag 339:1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • McBride TC, Organ A, Pryde E (2019) Range extension of Leadbeater’s possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri). Aust Mammal. https://doi.org/10.1071/AM18025

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCarthy MA, Gill AM, Lindenmayer DB (1999) Fire regimes in mountain ash forest: evidence from forest age structure, extinction models and wildlife habitat. For Ecol Manag 124:193–203

    Google Scholar 

  • McCarthy M, Lindenmayer DB (1998) Multi-aged mountain ash forest, wildlife conservation and timber harvesting. For Ecol Manage 104:43–56

    Google Scholar 

  • McCarthy MA, Lindenmayer DB (2000) Spatially-correlated extinction in a metapopulation model of Leadbeater’s Possum. Biodivers Conserv 9:47–63

    Google Scholar 

  • McIntyre S, Lavoral S (1994) Predicting richness of native, rare and exotic plants in response to habitat disturbance variables across a variegated landscape. Conserv Biol 8:521–531

    Google Scholar 

  • McRae BH, Shah VB, Mohapatra TK (2013) Circuitscape 4 user guide. The Nature Conservancy. Fort Collins, CO. http://www.circuitscape.org

  • Middendorp RS, Pérez AJ, Molina A, Lambin EF (2016) The potential to restore native woody plant richness and composition in a reforesting landscape: a modeling approach in the Ecuadorian Andes. Landscape Ecol 31:1581–1599

    Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell PJ, O’Grady AP, Pinkard EA, Brodribb TJ, Arndt SK, Blackman CJ, Duursma RA, Fensham RJ, Hilbert DW, Nitschke CR, Norris J, Roxburgh S, Ruthrof KX, Tissue DT (2016) An eco-climatic framework for evaluating the resilience of vegetation to water deficit. Glob Change Biol 22:1677–1689

    Google Scholar 

  • Mladenoff DJ (2004) LANDIS and forest landscape models. Ecol Model 180:7–19

    Google Scholar 

  • Mok HF, Arndt SK, Nitschke CR (2012) Modelling the potential impact of climate variability and change on species regeneration potential in the temperate forests of South-eastern Australia. Glob Change Biol 18:1053–1072

    Google Scholar 

  • Nelson JL, Durkin LK, Cripps JK, Scroggie MP, Bryant DB, Macak PV, Lumsden LF (2017) Targeted surveys to improve Leadbeater’s Possum conservation. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research technical report series no. 278

  • Newton AC, Echeverría C, Cantarello E, Bolados G (2011) Projecting impacts of human disturbances to inform conservation planning and management in a dryland forest landscape. Biol Conserv 144:1949–1960

    Google Scholar 

  • Nitschke CR, Innes JL (2006) Interactions between fire, climate change and forest biodiversity. Per Agr Vet Sci Nutr Nat Res 1:1–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Oliver CD, Larson BC (1990) Forest stand dynamics. McGraw-Hill Inc., New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Phillips-Mao L, Galatowitsch SM, Snyder SA, Haight RG (2016) Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves. Biol Conserv 193:103–114

    Google Scholar 

  • Pressey RL, Cabeza M, Watts ME, Cowling RM, Wilson KA (2007) Conservation planning in a changing world. Trends Ecol Evol 22:583–592

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Price JM, Silbernagel J, Nixon K, Swearingen A, Swaty R, Miller N (2016) Collaborative scenario modeling reveals potential advantages of blending strategies to achieve conservation goals in a working forest landscape. Landscape Ecol 31:1093–1115

    Google Scholar 

  • Rappaport DI, Tambosi LR, Metzger JP (2015) A landscape triage approach: combining spatial and temporal dynamics to prioritize restoration and conservation. J Appl Ecol 52:590–601

    Google Scholar 

  • Ridgeway G (2015) Generalized boosted regression models. R Package ‘gbm’, version 2.1-1

  • Russell MJ, Roberts BR (1996) Effects of four low-intensity burns over 14 years on the floristics of a blackbutt (Eucalyptus pilularis) forest in southern Queensland. Aust J Bot 44:315–329

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ryberg WA, Fitzgerald LA (2016) Landscape composition, not connectivity, determines metacommunity structure across multiple scales. Ecography 39:932–941

    Google Scholar 

  • Salazar DA, Fontúrbel FE (2016) Beyond habitat structure: landscape heterogeneity explains the monito del monte (Dromiciops gliroides) occurrence and behavior at habitats dominated by exotic trees. Integr Zool 11:413–421

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Scheller RM, Domingo JB, Sturtevant BR, Williams JS, Rudy A, Gustafson EJ, Mladenoff DJ (2007) Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution. Ecol Model 201:409–419

    Google Scholar 

  • Shifley SR, Thompson FR III, Dijak WD, Larson MA, Millspaugh JJ (2006) Simulated effects of forest management alternatives on landscape structure and habitat suitability in the Midwestern United States. For Ecol Manag 229:361–377

    Google Scholar 

  • Shirk AJ, McRae BH (2013) Gnarly landscape utilities: core mapper user guide. The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins CO

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith AP (1984) Demographic consequences of reproduction, dispersal and social interaction in a population of Leadbeater’s Possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri). In: Smith A, Hume I (eds) Possums and gliders. Surrey Beatty & Sons, Chipping Norton, pp 359–373

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith AP, Lindenmayer DB (1988) Tree hollow requirements of Leadbeater’s possum and other possums and gliders in timber production forests of the Victorian Central Highlands. Aust Wildlife Res 15:347–362

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith AP, Lindenmayer DB (1992) Forest succession and habitat management for Leadbeater’s possum in the State of Victoria, Australia. For Ecol Manag 49:311–332

    Google Scholar 

  • Stralberg D, Bayne EM, Cumming SG, Sólymos P, Song SJ, Schmiegelow FKA (2015) Conservation of future boreal forest bird communities considering lags in vegetation response to climate change: a modified refugia approach. Divers Distrib 21:1112–1128

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor C, Lindemayer DB (2020) Temporal fragmentation of critically endangered forest ecosystem. Austr Ecol. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • R Core Team (2016) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. https://www.R-project.org/

  • Todd CR, Lindenmayer DB, Stamation K, Acevedo-Cattaneo S, Smith S, Lumsden LF (2016) Assessing reserve effectiveness: application to a threatened species in a dynamic fire prone forest landscape. Ecol Model 338:90–100

    Google Scholar 

  • Trouvé R, Nitschke CR, Loic A, Willersdorf T, Robinson A, Baker P (2019) Competition drives the decline of a dominant midstorey tree species. Habitat implications for an endangered marsupial. For Ecol Manag 447:26–34

    Google Scholar 

  • Tscharntke T, Tylianakis JM, Rand TA, Didham RK, Fahrig L, Batáry P, Bengtsson J, Clough Y, Crist TO, Dormann CF, Ewers RM, Fründ J, Holt RD, Holzschuh A, Klein A, Kremen C, Landis DA, Laurance W, Lindenmayer D, Scherber C, Sodhi N, Steffan-Dewenter I, Thies C, van der Putten WH, Westphal C (2012) Landscape moderation of biodiversity patterns and processes—eight hypotheses. Biol Rev 87:661–685

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Turner MG, Gardner RH (2017) Landscape ecology in theory and practice: pattern and process, 2nd edn. Springer-Verlag, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Valentine LE, Fisher R, Wilson BA, Sonneman T, Stock WD, Fleming PA, Hobbs RJ (2014) Time since fire influences food resources for an endangered species, Carnaby’s cockatoo, in a fire-prone landscape. Biol Conserv 175:1–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Teeffelen AJA, Vos CC, Opdam P (2012) Species in a dynamic world: consequences of habitat network dynamics on conservation planning. Biol Conserv 153:239–253

    Google Scholar 

  • Viera AJ, Garrett JM (2005) Understanding interobserver agreement: the kappa statistic. Fam Med 37:360–363

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Visconti P, Pressey RL, Segan DB, Wintle BA (2010) Conservation planning with dynamic threats: the role of spatial design and priority setting for species’ persistence. Biol Conserv 143:756–767

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang G, Wang T, Kang H, Mang S, Riehl B, Seely B, Liu S, Guo F, Li Q, Nitschke CR, Innes JL (2017) Erratum to: adaptation of Asia-Pacific forests to climate change. J For Res 28:1103

    Google Scholar 

  • Wood SN (2011) Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models. J Roy Stat Soc B 73:3–36

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC), Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) and VicForests through an ARC Linkage Project (LP140100580). C.R. Nitschke and L.T. Bennett were also funded by the Victorian DELWP iFER (Integrated Forest Ecosystem Research) program. P.J. Baker was also supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT120100751). The authors are also grateful to VicForests and DELWP for providing parameters for the management scenarios. We would like to thank Professor David Lindenmayer for his review of the manuscript. Revisions based on his comments have improved this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne, 500 Yarra Boulevard, Burnley, VIC, 3121, Australia

    Craig R. Nitschke, Raphael Trouvé, Melissa Fedrigo & Patrick J. Baker

  2. Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, P.O. Box 137, Heidelberg, VIC, 3084, Australia

    Linda F. Lumsden

  3. School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne, 4 Water Street, Creswick, VIC, 3363, Australia

    Lauren T. Bennett

  4. CEBRA & School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia

    Andrew P. Robinson

Authors
  1. Craig R. Nitschke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Raphael Trouvé
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Linda F. Lumsden
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Lauren T. Bennett
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Melissa Fedrigo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Andrew P. Robinson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Patrick J. Baker
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Craig R. Nitschke.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 7391 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Nitschke, C.R., Trouvé, R., Lumsden, L.F. et al. Spatial and temporal dynamics of habitat availability and stability for a critically endangered arboreal marsupial: implications for conservation planning in a fire-prone landscape. Landscape Ecol 35, 1553–1570 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01036-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01036-2

Keywords

  • Leadbeater’s possum
  • Gymnobelideus leadbeateri
  • Conservation planning
  • Climate change
  • Fire
  • Timber harvesting
  • Planned burning