Skip to main content

Assessing source-sink stability in the context of management and land-use change

Landscape Ecology volume 34, pages 259–274 (2019)Cite this article

Abstract

Context

Management actions and land-use change can disrupt interdependent population processes, re-define population networks, and change source-sink dynamics. Yet we know little about the types of changes that can de-stabilize source-sink dynamics and how such changes could affect management decisions.

Objectives

We examined the degree to which source-sink status and strength could change under a range of management actions and land-use change scenarios including different patterns and extents of habitat loss, restoration, demographic improvements from parasitism control, and increased frequencies inter-population movement.

Methods

We developed an empirically-rich, spatially explicit, individual-based model for the formerly endangered Black-capped vireo in Texas. We simulated the network-wide consequences of different kinds of changes and compared the resulting source-sink strength, status, and regional abundance across scenarios. We gauged source-sink stability by the degree to which system changes caused the reversal of source or sink status.

Results

The stability of source-sink characterizations differed with the type of change. Source-sink dynamics were less responsive to small changes to population structure and changes that minimally affected demographic conditions. Source-sink status was most responsive to changes that affected habitat patterns and quality.

Conclusions

Accurately classifying sources and sinks is challenging, particularly in variable and directionally changing systems. The stability of source-sink classifications depends on the type of management or land-use change. Management actions may need to weigh interventions that improve regional abundance against those that alter regional source-sink dynamics as abundance and source-sink states can be sensitive to different kinds of change.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

39,95 €

Price includes VAT (Finland)

Fig. 1

adapted from Walker et al. 2016)

Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

References

  • Bancroft BA, Lawler JJ, Schumaker NH (2016) Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land-use change on an endangered bird. Ecol Evol 6:4468–4477

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Breininger DR, Carter GM (2003) Territory quality transitions and source-sink dynamics in a Florida scrub-jay population. Ecol Appl 13:516–529

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cilimburg AB, Lindberg MS, Tewksbury JJ, Hejl SJ (2002) Effects of dispersal on survival probability of adult yellow warblers (Dendroica Petechia). Auk 119:778–789

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cimprich DA, Heimbuch M (2011) Monitoring of the Black-capped vireo during 2011 on Fort Hood, Texas. Endangered Species Monitoring and Management at Fort Hood, Texas: 2011 Annual Report. Natural and Cultural Resources Management Branch. Fort Hood

  • Cimprich DA, Heimbuch M (2012) Monitoring of the Black-capped vireo during 2012 on Fort Hood, Texas. Endangered Species Monitoring and Management at Fort Hood, Texas: 2012 Annual Report. Natural and Cultural Resources Management Branch. Fort Hood

  • Cimprich DA, Kostecke RM (2006) Distribution of the black-capped vireo at Fort Hood, Texas. Southwest Nat 51:94–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cimprich DA, Sexton CW, Mcdowell PK, Lasley G, Simper WS (2009) Long-distance dispersal records for the Black-capped vireo. Bull Tex Ornithol Soc 42:44–47

    Google Scholar 

  • Copeland HE, Doherty KE, Naugle DE, Pocewicz A, Kiesecker JM (2009) Mapping Oil and gas development potential in the US intermountain west and estimating impacts to species. Plos One 4:e7400

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Crowder LB, Lyman SJ, Figueira WF, Priddy J (2000) Source-sink population dynamics and the problems of siting marine reserves. Bull Mar Sci 66:799–820

    Google Scholar 

  • Eckrich GH, Koloszar JA, Goering MD (1999) Effective landscape management of brown-headed cowbirds at Fort Hood, Texas. Stud Avian Biol 18:267–274

    Google Scholar 

  • Franco D, Ruiz-Herrera A (2015) To connect or not to connect isolated patches. J Theor Biol 370:72–80

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Furrer RD, Pasinelli G (2016) Empirical evidence for source—sink populations: a review on occurrence, assessments and implications. Biol Rev 91:782–795

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Graber JW (1961) Habitat requirements and life history of the black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla). Ecol Monogr 31:313–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hannah L, Midgley GF, Millar D (2002) Climate change-integrated conservation strategies. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 11:485–495

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heinrichs JA, Bender DJ, Gummer DL, Schumaker NH (2010) Assessing critical habitat: evaluating the relative contribution of habitats to population persistence. Biol Conserv 143(9):2229–2237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heinrichs JA, Lawler JJ, Schumaker NH, Wilsey CB, Bender DJ (2015) Divergence in sink contributions to population persistence. Conserv Biol. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12540

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Heinrichs JA, Lawler JJ, Schumaker NH (2016) Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of source-sink dynamics. Ecol Evol. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2029

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Heinrichs JA, Lawler JJ, Schumaker NH, Wilsely CB, Monroe KC, Aldridge CL (2018) A multispecies test of source-sink indicators to prioritize habitat for declining populations. Conserv Biol 32:648–657

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Holt RD (1985) Population dynamics in two-patch environments: some anomalous consequences of an optimal habitat distribution. Theor Popul Biol 28:181–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanda LL, Fuller TK, Sievert PR, Kellogg RL (2009) Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species’ range. Ecology 90:1574–1585

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Kostecke RM, Cimprich DA (2008) Adult and Juvenile survival of black-capped vireos within a large breeding population in Texas. The Condor 110:251–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loreau M, Daufresne T, Gonzalez A, Gravel D, Guichard F, Leroux SJ, Loeuille N, Massol F, Mouquet N (2013) Unifying sources and sinks in ecology and earth sciences. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 88:365–379

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Morris DW (2011) Source–sink dynamics emerging from unstable ideal freehabitat selection. In: Liu J, Hull V, Morzillo AT, Wiens JA (eds) Sources, sinks and sustainability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 58–81

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Pulliam RH (1988) Sources, sinks, and population regulation. Am Nat 132:652–661

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ratzlaff A (1987) Endangered and threatened wildlife and plants: determination of the black-capped vireo to be an endangered species. Fed Reg 52:37420–37423

    Google Scholar 

  • Runge JP, Runge MC, Nichols JD (2006) The role of local populations within a landscape context: defining and classifying sources and sinks. Am Nat 167:925–938

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Schumaker NH, Brookes A (2018) HexSim: a modeling environment for ecology and conservation. Landscape Ecol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-017-0605-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Geological Survey, 20140331, NLCD 2011 Land Cover (2011) U.S. Geological Survey, Sioux Falls, SD

  • Vega Rivera JH, Ortega-Huerta MA, Sarkar S, Rappole JH (2011) Modelling the potential winter distribution of the endangered Black-capped Vireo (Vireo atricapilla). Bird Conserv Int 21:92–106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walker L (2015) Population dynamics of the endangered Black-capped Vireo (Vireo atricapilla)

  • Walker LE, Marzluff JM, Cimprich DA (2016) Source-sink population dynamics driven by a brood parasite: a case study of an endangered songbird, the black-capped vireo. Biol Conserv 203:108–118

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weegman MD, Bearhop S, Fox AD, Hilton GM, Walsh AJ, McDonald JL, Hodgson DJ (2016) Integrated population modelling reveals a perceived source to be a cryptic sink. J Anim Ecol 85:467–475

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Wilkins N, Powell RA, Conkey AAT, Snelgrove AG (2006) Population status and threat analysis for the black-capped vireo. Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilsey CB, Lawler JJ, Cimprich DA (2012) Performance of habitat suitability models for the endangered black-capped vireo built with remotely-sensed data. Remote Sens Environ 119:35–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilsey CB, Lawler JJ, Cimprich D, Schumaker NH (2014) Dependence of the endangered black-capped vireo on sustained cowbird management. Conserv Biol 28:561–571

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank John Marzluff and Chad Wilsey for input and useful discussions.

Funding

Funding was provided by Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) as part of project RC-2120. The content of this manuscript does not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the United States government and no official endorsement should be inferred.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, P.O. Box 352100, Seattle, WA, 98195-2100, USA

    Julie A. Heinrichs, Joshua J. Lawler, Lauren E. Walker & Amy Bleisch

  2. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA

    Julie A. Heinrichs

  3. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA

    Nathan H. Schumaker

  4. Natural and Cultural Resources Management Branch, Environmental Division, Fort Hood, TX, 76544, USA

    David A. Cimprich

Authors
  1. Julie A. Heinrichs
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Joshua J. Lawler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Nathan H. Schumaker
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Lauren E. Walker
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. David A. Cimprich
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Amy Bleisch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Julie A. Heinrichs.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (PDF 444 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Heinrichs, J.A., Lawler, J.J., Schumaker, N.H. et al. Assessing source-sink stability in the context of management and land-use change. Landscape Ecol 34, 259–274 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-018-00768-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-018-00768-6

Keywords

  • Black-capped vireo
  • Source-sink dynamics
  • Management
  • Habitat restoration
  • Spatially explicit individual-based model
  • Land-use change