Advertisement

Landscape Ecology

, Volume 30, Issue 5, pp 919–935 | Cite as

Potential spread of Great Lakes fishes given climate change and proposed dams: an approach using circuit theory to evaluate invasion risk

  • Stephanie J. Melles
  • Cindy Chu
  • Karen M. Alofs
  • Donald A. Jackson
Research Article

Abstract

The Great Lakes currently harbour a number of non-native fishes that are thermally limited to the comparatively warm waters of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Climate change could facilitate the inland spread of many non-native species as the Great Lakes and their tributaries warm, putting thousands of inland lakes and streams at risk. We investigated how watershed network configurations, climate change and proposed hydro-power development could influence invasion risk in the Great Lakes Basin. Electric circuit theory was used to model hydrologic accessibility of aquatic ecological networks (i.e., lake, river, and impoundment chains) within tertiary watersheds. Risk of invasion was measured as the product of probability of non-native species spread (hydrologic accessibility) and amount of suitable thermal habitat under an ensemble of air temperature projections. Proposed hydro-power dam sites and their upstream catchments were used to evaluate changes in total risk of invasion given passable, semi-passable, and impassable dams. We show that projected climate change will lead to more coolwater stream and warmwater lake habitat. Overall invasion risk of cool- and warmwater species was highest in southern Ontario and surprisingly in northern watersheds draining into Lake Superior. This risk could be partially mediated by proposed dams if dams reduce connectivity and access to potentially suitable habitat. Our evaluation of mean invasion risk provides a broad-scale comparative tool for management of invasive species control options.

Keywords

Invasive species Non-native species Stream-lake chains Aquatic networks Impoundments Risk mapping 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors thank and appreciate the work of two anonymous reviewers and the editor for their constructive reviews of the original manuscript. The research was funded by the following sources: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant to DAJ, the NCSERC Canadian Network for Aquatic Ecosystem Services (CNAES), and the Invasive Species Centre (2014/2015 cycle). We also acknowledge and appreciate in kind support from the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forests, Canada.

Supplementary material

10980_2014_114_MOESM1_ESM.png (1.6 mb)
Appendix: Lake area in relation to number of lakes in tertiary watersheds of the GLB. A) Current (2011) thermal lake habitat amount for cool and warmwater fishes, b) A2 projected thermal lake habitat amounts (PNG 1677 kb).

References

  1. Albanese B, Angermeier PL, Dorai-Raj S (2004) Ecological correlates of fish movement in a network of Virginia streams. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 61:857–869CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Alofs KM, Fowler NL (2010) Habitat fragmentation caused by woody plant encroachment inhibits the spread of an invasive grass. J Appl Ecol 47:338–347CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Alofs KM, Jackson DA, Lester NP (2014) Ontario freshwater fishes demonstrate differing range-boundary shifts in a warming climate. Divers Distrib 20:123–136CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bobrowicz SM (2012) Black Bay & Black Sturgeon River native fisheries rehabilitation—decommissioning of the Camp 43 dam and construction of a multi-purpose sea lamprey barrier at Eskwanonwatin Lake. Project description. Northwest Regional Planning Unit, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Thunder Bay (plus appendices)Google Scholar
  5. Caissie D (2006) The thermal regime of rivers: a review. Freshw Biol 51:1389–1406CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chu C, Jones NE, Mandrak NE, Minns CK, Piggott AR (2008) The influence of air temperature, groundwater discharge, and climate change on the thermal diversity of stream fishes in southern Ontario watersheds. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65:297–308CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Chu C, Jones NE, Allin L (2010) Linking the thermal regimes of streams in the Great Lakes Basin, Ontario, to landscape and climate variables. River Res Appl 26:221–241Google Scholar
  8. Coker GA, Portt CB, Minns CK (2001) Morphological and ecological characteristics of Canadian freshwater fishes. Can Man Rep Fish Aquat Sci 2554Google Scholar
  9. Comte L, Buisson L, Daufresne M, Grenouillet G (2013) Climate-induced changes in the distribution of freshwater fish: observed and predicted trends. Freshw Biol 58:625–639CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Cote D, Kehler DG, Bourne C, Wiersma YF (2009) A new measure of longitudinal connectivity for stream networks. Landscape Ecol 24:101–113CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Crins WJ, Gray PA, Uhlig PWC, Webster MC (2009) The ecosystems of Ontario, Part I: Ecozones and Ecoregions. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Peterborough Ontario, Inventory, Monitoring and Assessment, SIB TER IMA TR-01Google Scholar
  12. Dobiesz NE, Lester NP (2009) Changes in mid-summer water temperature and clarity across the Great Lakes between 1968 and 2002. J Gt Lakes Res 35:371–384CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Drake DAR, Mandrak NE (2010) Least-cost transportation networks predict spatial interaction of invasion vectors. Ecol Appl 20:2286–2299CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  14. EC (Environment Canada) (2007) National Climate Data and Information Archive. Canadian Daily Climate Data 2006/2007. Climate and Water Products Division, DownsviewGoogle Scholar
  15. Erős T, Schmera D, Schick RS (2011) Network thinking in riverscape conservation—a graph-based approach. Biol Conserv 144:184–192CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Fagan W (2002) Connectivity, fragmentation and extinction risk in dendritic metapopulations. Ecology 83:3243–3249CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Fall A, Fortin M-J, Manseau M, O’Brien D (2007) Spatial graphs: principles and applications for habitat connectivity. Ecosystems 10:448–461CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) (2007) Glossary of phytosanitary terms. International standards for phytosanitary measures no. 5. IPPC-FAO, RomeGoogle Scholar
  19. Fausch KD, Rieman BE, Dunham JB, Young MK, Peterson DP (2009) Invasion versus isolation: trade-offs in managing native salmonids with barriers to upstream movement. Conserv Biol 23:859–870CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  20. Hein CL, Öhlund G, Englund G (2011) Dispersal through stream networks: modelling climate-driven range expansions of fishes. Divers Distrib 17:641–651CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Holeck K, Mills E, MacIsaac HJ, Dochoda MR, Colautti RI, Ricciardi A (2004) Bridging troubled waters: biological invasions, transoceanic shipping, and the Laurentian Great Lakes. Bioscience 54:919–929CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. IPCC (2011) IPCC special report on renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. Prepared by working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S. Kadner, T. Zwickel, P. Eickemeier, G. Hansen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow (eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New YorkGoogle Scholar
  23. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.In: S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html
  24. Jackson DA, Peres-Neto PR, Olden JD (2001) What controls who is where in freshwater fish communities—the roles of biotic, abiotic, and spatial factors. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 58:157–170Google Scholar
  25. Januchowski-Hartley SR, McIntyre PB, Diebel M, Doran PJ, Infante DM, Joseph C, Allan JD (2013) Restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity requires expanding inventories of both dams and road crossings. Front Ecol Environ 11:211–217CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Johnson PT, Olden JD, Vander Zanden MJ (2008) Dam invaders: impoundments facilitate biological invasions into freshwaters. Front Ecol Environ 6:357–363CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Kerr SJ (2010) Fishways in Ontario. Fisheries policy section. Biodiversity branch. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Peterborough, 34 ppGoogle Scholar
  28. Kerr SJ, Brousseau CS, Muschett M (2005) Invasive aquatic species in Ontario: a review and analysis of potential pathways for introduction. Fisheries 30:21–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Kornis MS, Vander Zanden MJ (2010) Forecasting the distribution of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) in Wisconsin tributaries to Lake Michigan. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 67:553–562CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Kundzewicz Z (1981) Electrical analogies for modeling hydrological systems. Arch Elktrotech 63:169–176CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Kundzewicz ZW (1986) The hydrology of tomorrow. Hydrol Sci J 31:223–235CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Lalonde R, Gleeson J, Gray PA, Douglas A, Blakesmore C, Ferguson L (2012) Climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation options for Ontario’s Clay Belt-a case study. Clim Change Res Rep no. CCRR-16Google Scholar
  33. Lehner B, Döll P (2004) Development and validation of a global database of lakes, reservoirs and wetlands. J Hydrol 296:1–22CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Leung B, Roura-Pascual N, Bacher S, Heikkilä J, Brotons L, Burgman MA, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Essl F, Hulme PE, Richardson DM, Sol D, Vilà M (2012) TEASIng apart alien species risk assessments: a framework for best practices. Ecol Lett 15:1475–1493Google Scholar
  35. MacIsaac HJ, Grigorovich IA, Ricciardi A (2001) Reassessment of species invasions concepts: the Great Lakes basin as a model. Biol Invasions 3:405–416CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Magnuson JJ, Webster KE, Assel RA, Bowser CJ, Dillon PJ, Eaton JG, Evans HE, Fee EJ, Hall RI, Mortsch LR, Schindler DW, Quinn FH (1997) Potential effects of climate changes on aquatic systems: laurentian Great Lakes and precambrian shield region. Hydrol Process 11:825–871Google Scholar
  37. Mandrak NE (1989) Potential invasion of the Great Lakes by fish species associated with climatic warming. J Gt Lakes Res 15:306–316CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Mandrak NE, Cudmore B (2010) The fall of native fishes and the rise of non-native fishes in the Great Lakes Basin. Aquat Ecosyst Health Manag 13:255–268CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Manning MR, Edmonds J, Emori S, Grubler A, Hibbard K, Joos F, Kainuma M, Keeling RF, Kram T, Manning AC, Meinshausen M, Moss R, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Rose SK, Smith S, Swart R, Van Vuuren DP (2010) Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios. Nat Geosci 3:376–377CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. McKay SK, Schramski JR, Conyngham JN, Fischenich JC (2013) Assessing upstream fish passage connectivity with network analysis. Ecol Appl 23:1396–1409CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  41. McKenney DW, Pedlar JH, Lawrence K, Gray PA, Colombo SJ, Crins WJ (2010) Current and projected future climatic conditions for ecoregions and selected natural heritage areas in Ontario. Ont Min Nat Resour Appl Res Develop Br, Sault Ste. Marie, ON. Clim Change Res Rep no. CCRR-16Google Scholar
  42. McLaughlin RL, Smyth ERB, Castro-Santos T, Jones ML, Koops MA, Pratt TC, Vélez-Espino LA (2013) Unintended consequences and trade-offs of fish passage. Fish Fish 14:580–604CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. McRae BH, Shah VB (2009) Circuitscape user guide. ONLINE. The University of California, Santa Barbara. Available at: http://www.circuitscape.org
  44. McRae BH, Dickson BG, Keitt TH, Shah VB (2008) Using circuit theory to model connectivity in ecology, evolution, and conservation. Ecology 89:2712–2724CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  45. Minns CK, Moore JE, Shuter BJ, Mandrak NE (2008) A preliminary national analysis of some key characteristics of Canadian lakes. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 65:1763–1778CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Moore RD, Nelitz M, Parkinson E (2013) Empirical modelling of maximum weekly average stream temperature in British Columbia, Canada, to support assessment of fish habitat suitability. Can Water Resourc J 38:135–147CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Neff MR, Jackson DA (2012) Geology as a structuring mechanism of stream fish communities. T Am Fish Soc 141:962–974CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Neff BP, Day SM, Piggott AR, Fuller LM (2005) Base flow in the Great Lakes Basin. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005–5217Google Scholar
  49. Newman MEJ (2003) The structure and function of complex networks. Siam Rev 45:167–256CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. OMNR (2010) Tertiary watershed data class, Geographic Information Branch, science & Information Resources Division, https://www.javacoeapp.lrc.gov.on.ca/geonetwork/srv/en/main.home?uuid=c445f2d3-f92c-47ec-8f59-9afccf2fdd55
  51. OMNR (2012) Integrated hydrology data, Spatial Data Infrastructure Unit, https://www.javacoeapp.lrc.gov.on.ca/geonetwork/srv/en/main.home?uuid=5383ed26-4a12-4026-b624-65c2e431c861
  52. OMNR (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) (2004) Waterpower potential site. https://www.javacoeapp.lrc.gov.on.ca/geonetwork/srv/en/main.home?uuid=336e34be-9e84-4946-b2a9-0323dfbf22df
  53. Peterson EE, Ver Hoef JM, Isaak DJ, Falke JA, Fortin MJ, Jordan CE, Wenger SJ (2013) Modelling dendritic ecological networks in space: an integrated network perspective. Ecol Lett 16:707–719Google Scholar
  54. Poff NL, Hart DD (2002) How dams vary and why it matters for the emerging science of dam removal. Bioscience 52:659–668CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Radinger J, Wolter C (2013) Patterns and predictors of fish dispersal in rivers. Fish Fish 15:456–473CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Ricciardi I, MacIsaac H (2000) Recent mass invasion of the North American Great Lakes by Ponto-Caspian species. Trends Ecol Evol 15:62–65CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  57. Ruesch AS, Torgersen CE, Lawler JJ, Olden JD, Peterson EE, Volk CJ, Lawrence DJ (2012) Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River network, Oregon, USA. Conserv Biol 26:873–882CrossRefPubMedGoogle Scholar
  58. Schindler DW (2009) Lakes as sentinels and integrators for the effects of climate change on watersheds, airsheds, and landscapes. Limnol Oceanogr 54:2349–2358CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Schneider P, Hook SJ (2010) Space observations of inland water bodies show rapid surface warming since 1985. Geophys Res Lett 37:L22405CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  60. Sharma S, Jackson DA, Minns CK, Shuter BJ (2007) Will northern fish populations be in hot water because of climate change? Glob Change Biol 13:2052–2064CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Sorte CJ, Ibáñez I, Blumenthal DM, Molinari NA, Miller LP, Grosholz ED, Diez JM, D'Antonio CM, Olden JD, Jones SJ, Dukes JS (2013) Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance. Ecol Lett 16:261–270Google Scholar
  62. Stainsby EA, Winter JG, Jarjanazi H, Paterson AM, Evans DO, Young JD (2011) Changes in the thermal stability of Lake Simcoe from 1980 to 2008. J Gt Lakes Res 37:55–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Trumpickas J, Shuter BJ, Minns CK (2009) Forecasting impacts of climate change on Great Lakes surface water temperatures. J Gt Lakes Res 35:454–463CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Ver Hoef JM, Peterson E, Theobald D (2006) Spatial statistical models that use flow and stream distance. Environ Ecol Stat 13:449–464CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Wehrly KE, Brenden TO, Wang L (2009) A comparison of statistical approaches for predicting stream temperatures across heterogeneous landscapes. JAWRA J Am Water Resour Assoc 45:986–997CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Wilkerson M (2013) Invasive plants in conservation linkages: a conceptual model that addresses an underappreciated conservation issue. Ecography 36:1319–1330CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stephanie J. Melles
    • 1
  • Cindy Chu
    • 1
  • Karen M. Alofs
    • 1
  • Donald A. Jackson
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of TorontoTorontoCanada

Personalised recommendations