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Meteorological analysis of the detection of xenon and barium/lanthanum isotopes in May 2010 in Eastern Asia

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Abstract

Between 13 and 22 May 2010, multiple detections of radionuclides were recorded at monitoring stations in Eastern Asia, including Okinawa, Takasaki (both Japan) and Ussuriysk (Russia). The stations are operated as part of the CTBTO international monitoring system (IMS) to record signals from nuclear tests. Additional detections were reported from a national monitoring post of the Republic of Korea located in Geojin close the border to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The scenario under investigation was unique in the history of the IMS. Possible source regions in the region and consistent release times were investigated. Subsequently, it was checked whether some known locations on the territory of DPRK could have been a possible origin of the fission products detected. As a result, it was found that two of the three DPRK locations investigated could be a possible source. It is evident, however, that the two events cannot be explained by one single release at one specific location and time. At least two releases with a time shift of about 1 day, possibly but not necessarily on the same location, are needed. Under the hypothesis that the source was in DPRK, the releases needed to explain the measurements would be about 1014 Bq for 133Xe and 5 × 1012 Bq for 140Ba. Taking all this into account and comparing the results with recently published hypotheses regarding a possible low-yield nuclear test in DPRK in May 2010, we conclude that such a test is indeed one of the possible scenarios from the meteorological point of view.

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Acknowledgments

The work presented here was made possible by the Austrian Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs and the Austrian Federal Ministry for Science and Research as part of their funding for the National Data Centre of Austria (NDC-AT) for the verification of the CTBT.

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The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and not necessarily shared or endorsed by the Austrian National Authorities in charge of the verification of the CTBT.

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Correspondence to Gerhard Wotawa.

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Wotawa, G. Meteorological analysis of the detection of xenon and barium/lanthanum isotopes in May 2010 in Eastern Asia. J Radioanal Nucl Chem 296, 339–347 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10967-012-2012-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10967-012-2012-7

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