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Factors that Influence Trajectories of Delinquency Throughout Adolescence

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Abstract

Given that one of the most powerful predictors of adult crime is the presence of behavior problems in childhood and adolescence, there is a need to further understand factors that determine behavior patterns during this developmental stage. This study focuses on stressful life experiences such as exposure to delinquent peers, racial discrimination, as well as family characteristics such as parenting style and family transitions. Data come from four waves of the Family and Community Health Survey, an African-American sample. The present study investigates 354 males from this dataset. We utilize a group-based trajectory model to estimate the number and type of trajectories of delinquency. We then estimate multinomial regression models to predict trajectory group membership. The results indicated that there were four distinct groups of offenders (negligible delinquents; early starter/declining; late starter; and early starter/chronic offenders). We predicted group membership using both early predictors and measures of change in these predictors across the study period. The results indicated that individuals who experience greater racial discrimination (both early in childhood and throughout adolescence) are more likely to be in trajectory groups that begin offending early and persist through adolescence. Additionally, those respondents who reported having friends with greater delinquent behavior were more likely to be in groups that began their offending early in life and persisted when compared to groups who started later or desisted as they entered adulthood. The results contribute to developmental research and provide information that may be helpful in preventing adolescents from persisting in antisocial behavior as they enter adulthood.

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Notes

  1. For the sake of parsimony, we do not present all statistical analyses conducted to arrive at the best-fitting trajectory model. The details of the model fit diagnostics are available upon request to the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Institute of Mental Health (MH48165, MH62669), the Center for Disease Control (U01CD001645), the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA021898, 1P30DA027827), and the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (2R01AA012768, 3R01AA012768-09S1).

Author contributions

S.E. conceived of the study, performed the statistical analyses, and drafted the manuscript. L.S. aided in interpretation of the results and revised the manuscript. R.S. participated in the design and framework of the study, interpretation of analyses, and helped to edit the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Criminal Justice, University of West Florida, 11000 University Parkway, 85/150, Pensacola, FL, 32514, USA

    Sara Z. Evans

  2. Department of Sociology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA

    Leslie Gordon Simons & Ronald L. Simons

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  1. Sara Z. Evans
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  2. Leslie Gordon Simons
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  3. Ronald L. Simons
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Correspondence to Sara Z. Evans.

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Evans, S.Z., Simons, L.G. & Simons, R.L. Factors that Influence Trajectories of Delinquency Throughout Adolescence. J Youth Adolescence 45, 156–171 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-014-0197-5

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