Skip to main content
Log in

Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of the Russian Economy Based on National Accounts Deaggregation

  • Published:
Journal of Mathematical Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The paper describes a three-product intertemporal general equilibrium model of the Russian economy. The System Analysis of Evolving Economy (SAEE) approach to modelling economic processes developed in 1975 is described. Based on SAEE Intertemporal Equilibrium Model with Control of Capital (IEMCC) and three-product nonlinear deaggregation of Russian national accounts by consumption are described. The model agents of two types are introduced: mass (rational) and individual (scenario) agents. The former type includes Bank, Producer, Household, Owner, and Trader. The latter type includes State, Central Bank, Exporter, and Importer. The model is reduced to a boundary-value problem for a significantly nonlinear system of equations. These equations are derived from the initial hypothesis by means of the original economic modelling assistance system ECOMOD which is developed in the computer algebra system MAPLE. The model is adjusted with respect to official statistical quarterly data from 2004 till 2010. The calculation results are provided. The model proves the ability to model the Russian economy as a result of interactions of rational and individual macroeconomic agents.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. V. M. Alekseev, V. M. Tikhonov, and S. V. Fomin, Optimal Control [in Russian], Fizmatlit, Moscow (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  2. S. Anatoliev, Econometrics for Advanced Students. Lectures [in Russian], New Economic School, Moscow (2004).

    Google Scholar 

  3. M. Yu. Andreev, N. P. Pilnik, and I. G. Pospelov, “Strong turnpike property in the model of modern Russian banking system with rational expectations,” Zh. Nov. Ehkon. Assoc., 1, No. 2, 70–84 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  4. M. Yu. Andreev, N. P. Pilnik, and I. G. Pospelov, “Modelling modern Russian banking system,” Ehkon. Zh. Vyssh. Shkoly Ehkon., 13, No. 2, 143–171 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  5. M. Yu. Andreev, N. P. Pilnik, and I. G. Pospelov, Econometric Research and Model Description of Modern Russian Banking System [in Russian], VC RAN, Moscow (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  6. M. Yu. Andreev and I. G. Pospelov, “Capital in a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model,” Mat. Model., 19, No. 9 (2007).

  7. M. Yu. Andreev, I. G. Pospelov, I. I. Pospelova, and M. A. Khokhlov, The New Modelling Technology and the Model of Modern Russian Economy [in Russian], MIFI, Moscow (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  8. A. R. Belousov and E. A. Abramova, “Financial flows integrated matrices (methodical and instrumental approaches),” Probl. Prognoz., No. 1 (2000).

  9. V. A. Bessonov, Problems of Analysis of Russia’s Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Transitional Period [in Russian], Inst. Ehkon. Perekh. Perioda, Moscow (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  10. V. P. Vrzheshch, I. G. Pospelov, and M. A. Khokhlov, “Model desagregation of macroeconomic data,” Ehkon. Zh. Vyssh. Shkoly Ehkon., 14, No. 1, 88–104 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  11. E. B. Ershov, Situational Theory for Prices and Indexes [in Russian], RIOR, Moscow (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  12. N. K. Zavriev and I. G. Pospelov, “Studying mathematical models with instrumental system ECOMOD,” Mat. Model., 5, No. 8, 57–74 (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  13. N. K. Zavriev, I. G. Pospelov, L. Ya. Pospelova, and S. V. Chukanov, The Development of Economic Mathematical Modelling Support System ECOMOD [in Russian], VC RAN, Moscow (1999).

  14. V. V. Ivanter, O. D. Govtvan, M. Yu. Ksenofontov, et al., “The economics of growth (the middle-term conception of Russia’s development), Probl. Prognoz., No. 1 (2000).

  15. S. I. Komarov, A. A. Petrov, I. G. Pospelov, and L. Ya. Pospelova, “Presenting knowledge from mathematical economic models,” Izv. Ross. Akad. Nauk Teor. Sistemy Upravlen., No. 5, 37–59 (1995).

  16. I. A. Kondrakov, L. Ya. Pospelova, D. A. Usanov, and A. A. Shananin, The Technologies for Market Analysis Based on Generalized Nonparametric Approach [in Russian], VC RAN, Moscow (2010).

  17. P. S. Krasnoshchekov and A. A. Petrov, The Principles of Model Development [in Russian], Fazis, Moscow (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  18. V. P. Maslov, Quantum Economics [in Russian], Nauka, Moscow (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  19. U. Maki, “Models are experiments, experiments are models,” J. Econ. Methodology, 12, Issue 2 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  20. A. A. Petrov, On Economics in Mathematical Terms [in Russian], Fazis, Moscow (2003).

    Google Scholar 

  21. A. A. Petrov and I. G. Pospelov, “Mathematical models of Russian economy,” Vestn. RAN, 79, No. 6, 492–506 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  22. A. A. Petrov, I. G. Pospelov, and A. A. Shananin, Experience in Mathematical Modelling of Economy [in Russian], Energoatomizdat, Moscow (1996).

    Google Scholar 

  23. A. A. Petrov, I. G. Pospelov, and A. A. Shananin, From Gosplan to Ineffective Market: Mathematical Analysis of Development of Russian Economic Structures, Edwin Mellen Press, Lewiston, N.Y. (1999).

    Google Scholar 

  24. N. P. Pilnik and I. G. Pospelov, A Firm’s Goals Description in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model [in Russian], VC RAN, Moscow (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  25. N. P. Pilnik and I. G. Pospelov, “Natural terminal conditions in models of intertemporal equilibrium,” Ehkon. Zh. Vyssh. Shkoly Ehkon., 11, No. 1, 3–35 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  26. V. M. Polterovich, The Economic Theory Crisis [in Russian], http://www.blagodeteleva-vovk.com/biblioteka/biblio/stat/crisis_ek.html (12.08.2011).

  27. I. G. Pospelov, Economic Dynamics Models Based on Equilibrium of Economic Agents Forecasts [in Russian], VC RAN, Moscow (2003).

    Google Scholar 

  28. I. G. Pospelov, Economic Structures Modelling [in Russian], Fazis, Moscow (2003).

    Google Scholar 

  29. I. G. Pospelov, “Modelling Russian economy in crisis,” Vopr. Ehkon., No. 11, 50–75 (2009).

  30. I. G. Pospelov, “Rationality of macroagents: Who has utility function?” in: Proc. of VI Moscow Int. Conf. on Operations Research (ORM 2010), Moscow State University, CMC, Moscow, MAKS PRESS (2010), pp. 85–86.

  31. I. G. Pospelov, The Model of Behavior Selection in Social-Economic Systems [in Russian], http://www.ccas.ru/mmes/mmest/podraj.htm.

  32. A. V. Sidorovich, Economics [in Russian], Delo i Servis, Moscow (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  33. A. D. Smirnov, “Credit bubble and crisis,” Vopr. Ehkon., No. 10 (2008).

  34. Credit Organizations Reference. Bank of Russia [in Russian], http://www.cbr.ru/credit/ (18.08.2011).

  35. Federal Treasury of Russia [in Russian], http://roskazna.ru/reports/cb.html.

  36. Federal Statistical Agency of Russia [in Russian], http://www.gks.ru.

  37. J. Forrester, World Dynamics [Russian translation], Nauka, Moscow (1979).

    Google Scholar 

  38. D. S. Chernavsky, N. I. Starkov, and A. V. Shcherbakov, “On problems of physics economics (actual problems overview),” UFN, No. 9, 1045–1066 (2002).

    Google Scholar 

  39. A. A. Sharov and Yu. A. Shreider, Systems and Models [in Russian], Radio i Svyaz’, Moscow (1982).

    Google Scholar 

  40. Yu. A. Shebeko, Imitative Modelling and Situational Analysis of Business-Processes of Management Decision Taking [in Russian], MAI, Moscow (1990).

    Google Scholar 

  41. Econophysics. Modern Physics in Search of Economic Theory [in Russian], MIFI (2007).

  42. Yu. V. Yakovets, Forecasting Cycles and Crises [in Russian], MFK, Moscow (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  43. P. S. Armington, “A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production,” Int. Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 16, 159–176 (1969).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. P. B. Dixon, B. R. Parmenter, J. Sutton, and D. P. Vincent, ORANI: A Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy, North-Holland, Amsterdam (1982).

    Google Scholar 

  45. P. B. Dixon and M. T. Rimmer, Forecasting and Policy Analysis with a Dynamic CGE Model of Australia, Monash Univ. Center of Policy Stud. Working Paper N OP-90, http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/ (June 1998).

  46. Handbook of Mathematical Economics, North-Holland, Amsterdam (1991).

  47. H. Jacoby, J. Reilly, J. McFarland, and S. Paltsev, “Technology and technical change in the MIT EPPA model,” Energy Econ., 28, No. 5-6, 610–631 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. A. Kirman, “Whom or what does the representative individual represent?” J. Econ. Perspectives, 6, No. 2, 117–136 (1992).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Maple 9 Learning Guide, Maplesoft, Waterloo Maple (2003).

  50. D. Meadows, The Limits to Growth, Universe Books, New York (1972).

    Google Scholar 

  51. M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel, Mankind at the Turning Point, Lutton and Reader’s Digest Press, New York (1974).

    Google Scholar 

  52. M. Sidrauski, “Rational choices and patterns of growth in a monetary economy,” Am. Econ. Rev., 57, 534–544 (1967).

    Google Scholar 

  53. S. J. Tumovsky, Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics, MIT Press (2000).

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to M. Yu. Andreyev.

Additional information

Translated from Trudy Seminara imeni I. G. Petrovskogo, No. 29, Part I, pp. 43–145, 2013.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Andreyev, M.Y., Vrzheshch, V.P., Pilnik, N.P. et al. Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of the Russian Economy Based on National Accounts Deaggregation. J Math Sci 197, 175–236 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10958-014-1712-7

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10958-014-1712-7

Keywords

Navigation