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Earthquake chemical precursors in groundwater: a review

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Abstract

We review changes in groundwater chemistry as precursory signs for earthquakes. In particular, we discuss pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity, and dissolved gases in relation to their significance for earthquake prediction or forecasting. These parameters are widely believed to vary in response to seismic and pre-seismic activity. However, the same parameters also vary in response to non-seismic processes. The inability to reliably distinguish between changes caused by seismic or pre-seismic activities from changes caused by non-seismic activities has impeded progress in earthquake science. Short-term earthquake prediction is unlikely to be achieved, however, by pH, TDS, electrical conductivity, and dissolved gas measurements alone. On the other hand, the production of free hydroxyl radicals (•OH), subsequent reactions such as formation of H2O2 and oxidation of As(III) to As(V) in groundwater, have distinctive precursory characteristics. This study deviates from the prevailing mechanical mantra. It addresses earthquake-related non-seismic mechanisms, but focused on the stress-induced electrification of rocks, the generation of positive hole charge carriers and their long-distance propagation through the rock column, plus on electrochemical processes at the rock-water interface.

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Acknowledgements

S.R. Paudel likes to thank the Department of Civil Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Nepal, who creates favorable condition for me working on this manuscript. F. T. Freund acknowledges support over many years from the NASA Earth Surface and Interior (ESI) program and the permission to use facilities at the Engineering Evaluation Laboratory (EEL) at the NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, USA. We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their critical comments and helpful suggestions that greatly enhance the quality of the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Pulchowk, Lalitpur, Nepal

    Shukra Raj Paudel

  2. Department of Environmental Engineering, College of Science and Technology, Korea University, Sejong, 30019, Republic of Korea

    Shukra Raj Paudel

  3. School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 195 Prospect St, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA

    Sushant Prasad Banjara

  4. Department of Medical Microbiology, Nobel College, Pokhara University, Sinamangal, Kathmandu, Nepal

    Amrita Wagle

  5. GeoCosmo Science and Research Center, NASA Ames Research Park, Moffett Field, Mountain View, CA, 94035-1000, USA

    Friedemann T. Freund

  6. Carl Sagan Center, SETI Institute, Mountain View, CA, 94043, USA

    Friedemann T. Freund

  7. Department of Physics, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, 95192-0106, USA

    Friedemann T. Freund

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  1. Shukra Raj Paudel
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Correspondence to Friedemann T. Freund.

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Highlights

• Complex changes in groundwater chemistry caused by stress-induced electric and electrochemical processes at the rock-to-water interface can reveal new earthquake precursors.

• Groundwater parameters such as total dissolved solids, electrical conductivity, pH, and dissolved gases are unlikely to be useful as pre-seismic indicators if taken separately, but useful if taken in combination with other earthquake precursors.

• Advancement of empirical earthquake prediction requires the identification of non-seismic natural/and artificial contributions.

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Paudel, S.R., Banjara, S.P., Wagle, A. et al. Earthquake chemical precursors in groundwater: a review. J Seismol 22, 1293–1314 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-018-9739-8

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