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Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

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Abstract

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

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Acknowledgements

The authors appreciate the assistance given by the National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG) in making it easy to obtain the earthquake data to build up our catalog of earthquakes and providing the software for analyzing the data.

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  1. Faculty of Science, Geology Department, Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt

    Shaimaa Ismail Mostafa & Mohamed Ahmed El-Eraki

  2. National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Helwan, Egypt

    Abd el-aziz Khairy Abd el-aal

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  1. Shaimaa Ismail Mostafa
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Mostafa, S.I., Abd el-aal, A.ea.K. & El-Eraki, M.A. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt. J Seismol 22, 669–696 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-018-9728-y

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