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Bayesian estimation of the Modified Omori Law parameters for the Iranian Plateau

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Abstract

The forecasting of large aftershocks is a preliminary and critical step in seismic hazard analysis and seismic risk management. From a statistical point of view, it relies entirely on the estimation of the properties of aftershock sequences using a set of laws with well-defined parameters. Since the frequentist and Bayesian approaches are common tools to assess these parameter values, we compare the two approaches for the Modified Omori Law and a selection of mainshock–aftershock sequences in the Iranian Plateau. There is a general agreement between the two methods, but the Bayesian appears to be more efficient as the number of recorded aftershocks decreases. Taking into account temporal variations of the b-value, the slope of the frequency-size distribution, the probability for the occurrence of strong aftershock, or larger main shock has been calculated in a finite time window using the parameters of the Modified Omori Law observed in the Iranian Plateau.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Peter Shebalin and Marina Potanina for very useful discussions. This study was supported by the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Project No. 9612: “Prediction of Aftershock Hazard in the Iranian Plateau using the Statistical Methods.”

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran

    S. Ommi & H. Zafarani

  2. Faculty of Physics, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    V. B. Smirnov

  3. Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    V. B. Smirnov

Authors
  1. S. Ommi
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  2. H. Zafarani
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  3. V. B. Smirnov
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Correspondence to H. Zafarani.

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Ommi, S., Zafarani, H. & Smirnov, V.B. Bayesian estimation of the Modified Omori Law parameters for the Iranian Plateau. J Seismol 20, 953–970 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-016-9574-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-016-9574-8

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