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An evaluation of earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau based on the Gumbel III distribution

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Abstract

The Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (GIII) of the extreme value method is employed to evaluate the earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau. This research quantifies spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-year mode beside their 90 % probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Iranian Plateau. Therefore, we used a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2013 with magnitude M w   ≥ 4.0, and the Iranian Plateau is separated into equal area mesh of 1° late × 1° long. The estimated result of annual mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M w 6.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, most parts of Central and East Iran, Kopeh Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan, and SE Zagros. The 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to overpass the value of M w 7.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, Central and East Iran, Alborz, Kopeh Dagh, and Azerbaijan. The spatial distribution of 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE uncovers the high values of earthquake hazard parameters which are frequently connected with the main tectonic regimes of the studied area. It appears that there is a close communication among the seismicity and the tectonics of the region.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to Dr. Andrzej Kijko, Associate Editor of the Journal of Seismology, and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions which enhanced the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

    Hiwa Mohammadi

  2. Agri Ibrahim Çeçen University, Agri, Turkey

    Yusuf Bayrak

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  1. Hiwa Mohammadi
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Correspondence to Hiwa Mohammadi.

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Mohammadi, H., Bayrak, Y. An evaluation of earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau based on the Gumbel III distribution. J Seismol 20, 615–628 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-015-9547-3

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