Abstract
Overconfidence, a widely observed cognitive bias, has been linked to increased gambling motivations and behaviors. However, previous studies have largely overlooked overconfidence under a social comparison context, known as overplacement, i.e., the tendency of individuals to believe that they are better than their similar peers. In the present study, we tested the effect of overplacement on gambling motivations and behaviors though a Pilot Survey of Chinese college students (N = 129) and a Field Survey of Chinese Macao casino gamblers (N = 733). Our results revealed a double-edged sword effect of overplacement: Serving as a risk factor, evaluating one self’s earning ability as higher than others was linked to more gambling motivations (β = 0.18, p = .005) and frequency (β = 0.18, p = .004); Serving as a protective factor, evaluating oneself as happier than others was linked to less gambling motivations (β = − 0.32, p < .001) and problem behaviors (β = − 0.26, p < .001). These findings expand the relationship between overconfidence and gambling from a cognitive bias perspective to a social comparison perspective. Our study not only revealed a typical profile of gambling motivations and behaviors among different demographic groups in Chinese casino gamblers, but also highlighted the importance of considering social factors in the study of the psychological mechanisms of gambling.
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The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author.
Notes
These games included Fan-tan, baccarat, greyhound racing, cussec, football lottery, paikao, horse racing, blackjack, roulette, Chinese lottery, mahjong, stud poker, and slot machines. Please refer to the DICJ web site for detailed information, http://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/rules/index.html.
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This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71761167001, 72271230), Major Projects of the National Social Science Foundation of China (No. 19ZDA358).
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Yuepei Xu performed statistical analysis and drafted the manuscript; Gui-Hai Huang designed and collected data for the field survey; Yi Xiao collected data for the pilot survey and drafted part of the manuscript; Wei Wang conducted statistical analysis; Shu Li designed the field survey; and Zhu-Yuan Liang designed and coordinated the study, revised the manuscript, and provided supervision.
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Xu, Y., Huang, GH., Xiao, Y. et al. A Double-Edged-Sword Effect of Overplacement: Social Comparison Bias Predicts Gambling Motivations and Behaviors in Chinese Casino Gamblers. J Gambl Stud 40, 1–20 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-024-10293-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-024-10293-8