Abstract
The present work employs a genetic algorithm to carry out wave height forecasting in the Bay of Bengal. The use of empirical orthogonal function analysis allows the spatial extending of the forecast to the entire basin. The chaotic nature of the process limits the horizon of usable forecasts to 48 h in advance. Statistical evaluation of the quality of forecast leads to encouraging results. A major advantage of this method is that, once the forecast equations are derived, they can be used directly without the necessity of having a numerical wave model as an intermediate step.
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Acknowledgments
The authors are indebted to Dr. Alvarez for the GA code used in the study. This study forms part of a project under the Meteorology and Oceanography-2 Program of the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), and the first two authors of the study wish to thank ISRO for sponsoring the project.
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Appendix
Appendix
We provide below two representative analytical equations for 6 and 48 h ahead forecasting of the first PC of SWH
Here, x(t), w(t), y(t) and z(t) stand for PC1 of SWH, WS, COS, and SIN at time t.
Extension of these notations to the backward time steps is trivial.
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Sinha, M., Rao, A.D. & Basu, S. Forecasting space–time variability of wave heights in the Bay of Bengal: a genetic algorithm approach. J Oceanogr 69, 117–128 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-012-0154-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-012-0154-4