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Rare and common species are doomed by climate change? A case study with neotropical butterflies and their host plants

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Abstract

Climate change is currently considered one key threat to biodiversity. Species with a restricted distribution possibly will be more affected than those with wide ranges. Climate change can potentially affect both herbivores and their host plants and reduce their geographical ranges. The nature and intensity of their responses, however, may not necessarily match. We investigated the synergistic effects of climate change on two Neotropical butterfly species and their respective host plants at the end of twenty-first century. The species selected contrast in distribution extent, feeding habits and conservation status: Battus polystictus is widespread, oligophagous and common and Parides ascanius has a restricted distribution, is monophagous and is listed as vulnerable in the IUCN red list. Maps of the potential distribution of the butterflies and their host plants, as well as maps showing the changes in the ranges, in overlap area and direction of shifts were produced. Under forecasted climate change, all ranges and interaction areas decreased and the impacts were proportional to the intensity of change in future scenarios, either when compared all together or pairwise (p < 0.001). Based in our results estimation of climatically suitability, the monophagous butterfly with restricted distribution did suffer more severely these effects than the widespread generalist species. We did not anticipate, however, the possible strength of the predicted effects. Under the conditions modelled, P. ascanius would probably find no suitable conditions for occurrence, irrespectively of its host plant, and might go extinct. B. polystictus, on the other hand, suffered marked decreases in suitable area (46% for RCP4.5 and 91% for RCP8.5) and dramatic southward shifts (> 1439 km for RCP4.5 and > 1956 km for RCP8.5) on its range. This effect is further worsening because although most host plants are also much affected by the changes, the shift in their ranges is on average much smaller and each species responded in subtly different ways to the changing conditions, so that most of their future range may be spatially incompatible with the B. polystictus. We propose that the extinction risk of P. ascanius should be adjusted to critically endangered and point that species interactions and climate change must be accounted for in conservation planning.

Implications for insect conservation

The assessment carried out in this study contributes to the knowledge of climate change scenarios of butterfly species correlated with their host plants until the end of this century. These results can propose priority sites for conservation efforts like contribute to change status of P. ascanius to critically endangered, actually listed as vulnerable on the IUCN red list.

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Acknowledgements

We thank for the visited collections and curators that supported with this paper: Alexandre Soares, Renato de Oliveira E. Silva, Dr. Andy Warren. We thank as well for the support: Dr. Mirna Casagrande, Dr. Olaf Mielke, Dr. Lucas Kaminski, Dr. Marcelo Duarte, Dr. Guilherme Atencio, MSc. Carla Cenci, MSc. Diego Martins, Dr. Ricardo Siewert, Dr. Ana Paula Carvalho, Dr. Ryan St. Laurent, Dra. Sidia Maria Callegari Jacques. This study was supported by Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES).

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  1. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biologia Animal, Departamento de Zoologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves, 9500 Bloco IV, Prédio 43435 – sala 218, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, 91501-970, Brazil

    Juliane M. F. Bellaver & Helena Piccoli Romanowski

  2. Universidade Federal de Jataí, Jataí, GO, Brazil

    Matheus de Souza Lima-Ribeiro

  3. Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, São Mateus, ES, Brazil

    Diego Hoffmann

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10841_2022_407_MOESM1_ESM.tif

Figure S1. Potential distribution maps for the host plants: a) Aristolochia arcuata, b) Aristolochia galeata, c) Aristolochia gigantea, d) Aristolochia macroura , e) Aristolochia melastoma, f) Aristolochia triangularis predicted by the The Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) derived from three coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) in pres (present) and future - RCP4.5, optimistic scenario and RCP8.5, pessimistic scenario (TIF 100936 kb)

10841_2022_407_MOESM2_ESM.tif

Figure S2. Change in potential distribution of the Aristolochia host plants in the future (RCP4.5 – optimistic and RCP8.5 – pessimistic): a) Aristolochia arcuata, b) Aristolochia galeata, c) Aristolochia gigantea , d) Aristolochia macroura , e) Aristolochia melastoma, f) Aristolochia triangularis predicted by the The Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) derived from three coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). Color indication: green: current and future stability; blue: expansion possibility, but no present conditions; red: future retraction and occurrence conditions only in the present (TIF 111192 kb)

10841_2022_407_MOESM3_ESM.tif

Figure S3. Maps of the future potential direction change for the butterfly species and their respective host plants: a) Battus polystictus, b) Aristolochia macroura, c) Aristolochia arcuata, d) Aristolochia galeata, e) Aristolochia gigantea, f) Aristolochia melastoma, g) Aristolochia triangularis predicted by the 5% threshold and derived from three coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). Arrow color indication: black – RCP4.5 optimistic scenario; red - RCP8.5 pessimistic scenario (TIF 91213 kb)

10841_2022_407_MOESM4_ESM.tif

Figure S4. Overlap between the potential distribution of Battus polystictus and its host plants at present and under two future CO2 emissions scenario (RCP4.5, optimistic and RCP8.5, pessimistic) derived from three coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). Host plants: a) Aristolochia gigantea; b) Aristolochia galeata; c) Aristolochia arcuata. Colors indicate estimated potential distribution of species and potential interactions: Blue: B. polystictus; Red: host plant; Green: overlap between butterfly and host plant potential distribution (TIF 96200 kb)

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Bellaver, J.M.F., Lima-Ribeiro, M.d., Hoffmann, D. et al. Rare and common species are doomed by climate change? A case study with neotropical butterflies and their host plants. J Insect Conserv 26, 651–661 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-022-00407-1

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