Abstract
Abundance estimates are used to establish baselines, set recovery targets, and assess management actions, all of which are essential aspects of evidence-based natural resource management. For many rare butterflies, these estimates do not exist, and conservation decisions rely instead on expert opinion. Using Bartram’s scrub-hairstreak (Strymon acis bartrami, US Endangered) as a case study, we present a novel comparison of two methods that permit the incorporation of detection probabilities into abundance estimates, distance sampling and double-observer surveys. Additionally we provide a framework for establishing a systematic sampling scheme for monitoring very rare butterflies. We surveyed butterflies monthly in 2013, increasing intensity to weekly when butterflies were detected. We conducted 19 complete, island-wide surveys on Big Pine Key in the Florida Keys, detecting a total of 59 Bartram’s scrub-hairstreaks across all surveys. Peak daily abundances were similar as estimated with distance sampling, 156 butterflies (95 % CI 65–247), and double-observer, 169 butterflies (95 % CI 65–269). Selecting a method for estimating abundance of rare species involves evaluating trade-offs between methods. Distance sampling requires at least 40 detections, but only one observer, while double-observer requires only 10 detections, but two observers. Double-observer abundance estimates agreed with distance sampling estimates, which suggests that double-observer is a reasonable alternative method to use for estimating detection probability and abundance for rare species that cannot be surveyed with other, more commonly used methods.



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Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and North Carolina State University for making this study possible. We thank Nick Haddad, Mike Cove, Tyson Wepprich, Anne Morkill, Mark Salvato, Jennifer Anderson, Phillip Hughes and Nancy Finley for thoughtful comments, support, and guidance in the formation and implementation of the project. This work benefited from the field assistance of Camille Knight, Jessica Padilla, and Kate Cardenas. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for constructive comments. Use of trade, product, or firm names does not imply endorsement by the United States Government. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
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Henry, E.H., Anderson, C.T. Abundance estimates to inform butterfly management: double-observer versus distance sampling. J Insect Conserv 20, 505–514 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-016-9883-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-016-9883-9


